□ Fabian Hoffmann
>> https://x.com/frhoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20
One common mistake in analyzing the threat posed by Russia is falling into the trap of 'mirror-imaging'. This means assuming that Russia views a potential conflict with us in the same way we view a potential conflict with them. Nothing could be further from the truth.
🇷🇺 does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war with NATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine & for which we are primarily preparing. Already before taking substantial losses on the 🇺🇦 battlefield, 🇷🇺 knew that it would be inferior in such a scenario.
Russian thinking on a war with NATO revolves around the concept of escalation control and escalation management. Russia's primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively manage escalation and bring the war to an early end on terms that are favorable to Russia.
Terminating hostilities early is necessary, given that 🇷🇺 must secure a victorous outcome before NATO's conventional superiority comes to bear, most notably that of the United States. Two key concepts play a crucial role: de-escalation strikes and aggressive sanctuarization.
□ South Africa challenges Israel at the International Court of Justice
>>
South Africa’s charge of genocide did not come out of the blue. In mid-November, UN experts called on the international community “to act quickly to prevent genocide”. International legal experts also expected a state to apply to the ICJ under the Genocide Convention, a judicial route that could offer some protection.
The complete siege of Gaza – cutting off food, water, fuel – the evacuation orders and the bombardment combined with the language of political and military leaders prompted these fears of an unfolding genocide.
Genocide constitutes certain ‘acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such’. South Africa accuses Israel of killing Palestinians in Gaza, causing them serious bodily and mental harm, inflicting on them conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction and imposing measures intended to prevent Palestinian births.
South Africa contextualises these acts within the “broader context of Israel’s conduct towards Palestinians during its 75-year-long apartheid, its 56-yearlong belligerent occupation of Palestinian territory and its 16-year-long blockade of Gaza”. But the focus of this application is Israel’s specific intent, during the current operation, “to destroy Palestinians in Gaza as a part of the broader Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group”.