Los Alamos National Laboratory が発表した R0 の新たな推定値

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

基本再生産数Ｒ０は、初期に2.2から2.7と推定されていたが、より多くのデータから4.7から6.6と推定、感染数は2.4日で倍増する

症状があるものだけの隔離とその接触者の追跡だけでは、効果的ではない可能性がある

ウイルスの感染阻止には初期の強力な管理手段が必要である

The  novel  coronavirus  (2019-nCoV)  is  a  recently emerged human  pathogen that has  spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these   estimates   and high-resolution real-timehuman travel and infection   data with mathematical  models,  we estimatedthat  the number of infected  individuals  during  early epidemic double every2.4days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.