It is common sense in the east and west to fight in an advantageous place. Financing venture companies has become a difficult area for artificial intelligence (AI). Past performance is a major factor in determining a loan. That area is not a place for AI to play an active role because there is no accumulation of judgment materials for assessing venture companies that do not have assets as collateral. Venture companies tend to emerge significantly in times of change. Supporting such companies will help stabilize the bank's management. It seems that humans will continue to be responsible for making decisions about corporate management in rapidly changing competitive fields. AI has some areas of weakness. It has also been found that this machine cannot exert its power in fields where there is no past data. In this corona shock, stock prices fell sharply. It seems that AI couldn't make this prediction. It is said that the dealer who traded using AI suffered a lot of losses. However, using this failure as data, it may lead to the next leap.
The formalized work seems to be replacing the AI work. Even complicated tasks can often be replaced by AI if they are divided into a few simple tasks. AI is good at deriving the best answer based on past data and statistics. It was shocking that AlphaGo defeated a professional Go player. However, it can be said that we were able to find a good winner from the beginning because of the existence of excellent game records of professional shogi players that have been accumulated for hundreds of years. It can be said that there was good learning data. In diagnostic imaging such as MRI, AI that exceeds the capabilities of specialists has also appeared. In the United States, AI is increasingly being used to look for similar medical conditions in the diagnosis of infectious diseases. Case law, which brings together the knowledge of lawyers, is becoming an area where AI is good at. AI with low cost and good operability can be considered without using much power with moderate speed and accuracy. From now on, AI with low cost, excellent operability, and reasonable ability will be an option.
As an aside, it seems that power outages occur frequently in Iran. The reason was the mining of Bitcoin. Bitcoin requires complicated computational work to approve transactions. This work is called mining. If you cooperate with mining, there is a mechanism to receive Bitcoin as a reward for success. Mining requires cheap electricity and a computer equipped with high-performance semiconductors. Previously, China held 80% of the world market share. However, it is now dispersed in countries with good electricity conditions.
As of 2020, China, the leader in mining, was 65%, down about 10 points from six months ago. Mining companies such as Riot Blockchain are listed in the United States (7.2%) and are led by the private sector. This is followed by Russia (6.9%) and Iran (3.8%), increasing their market share compared to half a year ago. The Iranian government, which has been forced to slow growth by US economic sanctions, has recognized mining as an industry. Iran has a lot of fossil fuels and has the advantage of being able to supply abundant electricity at low cost. However, the number of miners moving from China to Iran has increased, and many miners have been born in Iran. The electricity charge for 1kWh is $ 0.005 for Iran, $ 0.063 for Russia and $ 0.085 for China. Chinese miners have rushed to Iran to aim for this low electricity rate. As a result, even in Iran, there was a power shortage. By the way, Bitcoin rewards in Iran are expected to exceed 100 billion yen annually. This money will be a high value-added fund that makes it easy for Iran to earn foreign currency. It seems that many people are rushing to the advantage and create a disadvantage. As a result of encouraging mining, Iran has experienced a surge in electricity consumption and frequent power outages in major cities in the country. It was unavoidable that the mining of cryptocurrencies would be banned until September 22nd, ahead of the peak summer electricity demand period in May.
Japanese forestry also has strengths and weaknesses. The strength of Japanese forestry is that it has abundant forests that can be logged. The amount of artificial forests accumulated in Japan has increased from 1.7 billion m3 after the war to 4.9 billion m3. The forest area of Japan is 25 million ha, and the annual growth amount is about 100 million m3. On the other hand, the amount of wood used is 75 million m3. The amount of forest growth far exceeds the amount used. However, of the 75 million m3 of timber used, 50 million m3 uses imported timber. Germany, which has a forest area of 10 million ha, stably produces 60 million m3 of timber annually. Another weakness of Japan is that it costs 7,000 yen to cut 1 m3 of timber and put it on the market. In Germany, Austria, and Scandinavia, can be shipped to the market for 2,500 yen. The challenge for Japan is to cut out abundant timber resources at low cost.
The trend towards forestry around the world is changing. The world's forestry is at a turning point in the accelerating transition from a developmental to a recycling economy. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin, a forest resource powerhouse, has declared that exports of coniferous trees and other logs will be banned from January 2022. This is a policy to protect country's resources. This measure puts China in trouble. Most of the imports of softwood logs depend on Russia. When Russian logs are cut off, Chinese woodworkers are in trouble. They process Russian logs, process them into fences and furniture, and re-export them. China, which has a large amount of imports from Russia, seems to be increasing the procurement of logs from Japan by substituting cedar. China's eyes are on Japanese timber, which can reduce transportation costs.
It seems that the cost aspect, which is a weakness of Japan, is being overcome. We are also developing a mechanism to maximize the profit from a single tree for the purpose of improving the efficiency of material production. Calculate the lumber plan for the most traded diameter and length logs on your computer. After going to the timber market and investigating the market trends, we will change the length and thickness of the trees that sell well by tree type. The calculated data is shared with the workers at the forest site who produce the materials, and which tree should be cut is selected from the viewpoint of maximizing profits. A log sampling plan will be calculated on a computer, and a material called a log will be produced. At this time, the drone is useful as a tool to photograph difficult-to-reach points and check the condition of the forest. Drones enable rapid information gathering in the mountains in the forestry field. In the future, it will be a tool used systematically.
Another tailwind is blowing in Japan for forestry-related businesses. There is a worldwide shortage of used corrugated cardboard, which is the raw material for corrugated cardboard. The spread of the new coronavirus has made it difficult to collect used paper from Europe and the United States. Until now, used corrugated cardboard from Europe and the United States has been exported to China and Southeast Asia. The cause is that the supply is decreasing due to the blockage of distribution such as the blockage of cities. There was a situation where we could not secure the required amount of used corrugated cardboard. It can be said that the collection amount of each country has decreased significantly. In particular, Chinese companies have become difficult to procure raw materials for used paper, so they are now importing in the form of corrugated board. The May launch price for China has doubled from the end of 2019 to $ 170 a ton. It has been increasing for 4 consecutive months since the outbreak of the new coronavirus infection. Exports of corrugated board in Japan are steadily increasing.
Currently, the shortage of used corrugated cardboard is remarkable, but there was a surplus of used paper until December at the end of the year. Exports to China, which is tightening environmental regulations, have decreased, and the price of used paper has also fallen. Japanese recycled paper could not be exported to China and began to stay in the country. Around May 2019, we couldn't fit in the warehouse and started loading in the open. In Japan, used paper has a recovery rate of over 80% and has been said to be an excellent student for recycling. However, due to the deterioration of profitability, the collection of used paper was temporarily suspended, and the collection company withdrew. At the end of the year, the recycling of used paper such as cardboard and newspapers was in danger. However, Japanese companies weren't just messing around. Domestic paper companies have dealt with this by leaving the standard purchase price from a used paper wholesaler at 18 yen per kg. In order to maintain the trinity market of used paper, papermaking, and corrugated cardboard, they have continued to buy at a certain price. This effort has paid off and is a factor in the current solid exports. Exports of used corrugated cardboard to Vietnam in March doubled from the previous year to 52,000 tons. For Indonesia, it has expanded 12 times to 27,000 tons. The superior position does not seem to be possible overnight. It seems that it is necessary to make a decision to endure at one time and to go on the offensive at another time. Japanese forestry is in an advantageous position. I would like to continue to devise ways to sustainably develop this.