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Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Epilogue
7-2(55) Increasing refugees
Once a war between nations or a civil war in the country breaks out, many casualties come out to innocent citizens. Not only death or injuries involved in the battle, but also there are many refugees who lose their land and house and wander about foreign soil.
It was 1948 Arab-Israeli War so called Israeli Independence War that the first refugees appeared in the Middle East after the World War II. They were called Palestinian refugees. They escaped to the Palestinian Autonomous Region in Israel or refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon. The number of Palestinian refugees registered in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reached 4.5 million. There were 12 refugee camps in Lebanon and 450,000 people lived in a poor living condition.
Before a Palestinian refugee problem has been solved, much larger number of refugees were born in Syria. Triggered by "Arab Spring" in 2011, government troops and anti-government forces confronted in Syria. Furthermore, extremist of Islamic fundamentalism declared the establishment of Islamic State (IS). Mass refugees were born in conflict zones across Syria and Iraq. The word "mass refugees" that accounts refugees as a quantity reminds the sense of self-reproach. But the proper terminology could not be found except “mass refugees”.
It is said that about 4.1 million Syrian refugees fled to abroad in conflict and 7.6 million people were evacuating domestically. It is about half of the total population of Syria and they occupies one fifth of the total number of refugees in the world. As the civil war in Syria became in a mire, supply of relief for internally displaced people stagnated, and food and medicines were stopped. The refugees aimed for camps of neighboring countries in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. But there was no room to accommodate new refugees.
They, therefore, aimed for Germany which was emigrant-friendly country. They started a long journey to Western Europe on foot along the road. Many Syrian refugees were from the middle class living in urban areas. When they were in their hometown, they had already acquaintance with the peaceful and rich life of Western Europe, while they saw the savage and non-civilized behavior of "Islamic State" (IS) on the Internet. They scared of the fear if their city was controlled by IS. As soon as they heard the footsteps of the IS, they sold all of family premise and escaped to Turkey. Then they aimed for Western Europe.
Unlike the poor African refugees who struggled to cross the Mediterranean with nothing but the closes one wore, Syrian refugees were not penniless. In classified refugees, African refugees were economic refugees, while Syrian refugees were political refugees. What Syrian refugees valued after their lives was a smartphone. They aimed for the west on foot with a smartphone to check the current location and collected information from their close friends going ahead about which border checkpoints would accept refugees. If the checkpoint was closed, they looked for the place where they could cross the border without permission. They conveyed such information to friends and relatives who were following them. At the same time they kept in touch with relatives who have already migrated to Europe, asking for a good place to settle. A smartphone was a lifeline for them.
However, the capacity to accept refugees in European countries had reached to their limit. It was not due to the reason of the economic burden of each country, but citizen’s anxiety of unemployment by a huge number of poor immigrants or political and social fear of Islamic terrorism which had been spread among society. Already there were many African refugees settled in suburbs of the big cities in Europe. The unemployment rate of second generation of African Immigrants was high. Some of young Muslim guys influenced by Islamic extremism. They felt desperation and carried out suicide bombings in the city. In the meanwhile, the extreme right powers of native European got support from the traditional people. They urged on immigrant exclusion and Islam phobia.
(To be continued ----)
11/11 OPEC
JMMC meeting in Abu Dhabi focuses on supply and demand outlook for 2019
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5234.htm
11/12 国際石油開発帝石
四 半 期 報 告 書
https://www.inpex.co.jp/ir/library/pdf/securities/securities20181112.pdf
11/12 Total
Total and ADNOC join forces to launch unconventional gas exploration in Abu Dhabi
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/total-and-adnoc-join-forces-launch-unconventional-gas-exploration-abu-dhabi
11/14 経済産業省
関経済産業副大臣がアラブ首長国連邦に出張しました
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2018/11/20181114003/20181114003.html
11/14 出光興産
平成31年３月期 第２四半期決算短信〔日本基準〕（連結）
http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/company/news/2018/181114_2.pdf
11/14 昭和シェル石油
2018年度 第3四半期決算について
http://www.showa-shell.co.jp/press_release/pr2018/1114.html
11/14 石油連盟
石油増税反対 総決起大会について
http://www.paj.gr.jp/paj_info/press/2018/11/14-001835.html
11/15 経済産業省
平成29年度（2017年度）エネルギー需給実績を取りまとめました（速報）
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2018/11/20181115002/20181115002.html
11/16 国際石油開発帝石
オーストラリア イクシスLNGプロジェクト 液化石油ガス（LPG）の出荷開始について（お知らせ）
https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20181116.pdf
11/16 Total
Total signs a Memorandum of Understanding with the State of Papua New Guinea on the key terms of the Gas Agreement of the Papua LNG Project and launches engineering studies
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/total-signs-memorandum-understanding-state-papua-new-guinea-key-terms-gas-agreement-papua-lng
(注)本レポートは「マイライブラリー」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0454OilMajor2018-3rdQtr.pdf
２．２０１７年第３四半期以降の四半期別業績の推移(続き)
（６）原油・天然ガス生産量の推移
（６－１）原油生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-68.pdf 参照)
過去１年間の四半期ごとの原油生産量の推移を見るとExxonMobilが他社を引き離して５期連続でトップを守っている。ExxonMobilの生産量は５社の中でただ１社２００万B/D台を維持している。同社の生産量は昨年第３四半期以降下降気味であったが、今期は再び１年前の水準に戻っている。ExxonMobilに次ぐ二番手グループはShellとChevronで、その生産量は１７０万B/D台であり、直近の３四半期は両社の間に殆ど差が無い。TotalとBPの１年前の生産量は１３０万B/D台で５社の中で最も少なかった。しかしTotalは昨年第４四半期以降大幅に生産量を増加させており、今期は１６１万B/DとShell及びChevronとの差を縮めている。一方BPは昨年第４四半期以降生産量の減少が続いており、今期は１２２万B/Dにとどまり、Totalと４０万B/Dの差がある。
（６－２）天然ガス生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-69.pdf 参照)
２０１７年第３四半期の天然ガスの生産量はExxonMobil及びShellの上位グループ２社とBP、Total、Chevronの下位グループ３社の２極に明確に分かれており、上位２社が日量約１００億立方フィート(以下cfｄ)に対し下位３社の生産量は６０億cfd前後にとどまっていた。ExxonMobilは昨年第４四半期をピークに低落の傾向にあり、トップのShellとの格差が広っている。但しShellの生産量も今年四半期に１１９億cfdに達した後に急落し今期は１０４億cfdと１年前の水準に戻っている。
一方下位グループではChevronは年間を通じて増加しており、BP及びTotalの生産量は横ばい状態である。この結果今期(２０１８年第３四半期)はShellの生産量が１０４億cfdでトップとなり、続いてExxonMobilが９０億cfd、BP、Chevron及びTotalが７０億cfd前後で並んでいる。トップのShellと５社のうち最も少ないTotalとの生産量の差は３４億cfdである。
（６－３）原油・天然ガス合計生産量(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-65.pdf 参照)
天然ガスを石油に換算した原油・天然ガスの合計生産量の推移を見るとトップのExxonMobilは１年前の３８８万B/Dから減少し、今期は１０万B/D減の３７９万B/Dにとどまっている。二番手のShellはExxonMobilにほぼ２０万B/Dの差を付けられている。Chevron、Total、BPの下位グループ３社の昨年第３四半期原油・天然ガス合計生産量は２５０～２７０万B/Dでほぼ一線に並んでいた。この傾向は今年第１四半期まで続いたが、前期と今期はChevron及びTotalが生産量をぞかさせたのに対しBPは逆に減少している。この結果ExxonMobil、Shellの上位グループとChevron、Totalの差は縮小し、BPが最下位に取り残される状況になっている。
以上
本稿に関するコメント、ご意見をお聞かせください。
前田 高行 〒183-0027東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601
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E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp
(注)本レポートは「マイライブラリー」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0454OilMajor2018-3rdQtr.pdf
２．２０１７年第３四半期以降の四半期別業績の推移(続き)
（４）部門別利益の推移
（４－１）上流部門(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-66.pdf 参照)
前年の２０１７年第３四半期の上流部門の損益が１０億ドルを超えたのExxonMobil１６億ドル、Total１４億ドルおよびBP１２億ドルであり、Shell及びChevronは一桁台の５億ドル前後にとどまった。
第４四半期は５社ともに二桁台の利益を出したが、特にExxonMobilとChevronの２社はそれぞれ８４億ドル、５３億ドルと大幅な増益であった。Shell、BP及びTotal３社はいずれも２０億ドル前後で並んだ。今年に入るとExxonMobil及びChevronの利益は減少した一方、BPが増益となりこれら３社の上流部門の利益は３０億ドル台前半で並んだ。これに対してTotalは２２億ドル、Shellは１９億ドルであった。
今期(２０１８年第３四半期)は５社すべてが前期を上回る利益を計上、トップはExxonMobilの４２億ドル、次いでBP４０億ドル、Chevron３４億ドル、Total２９億ドル、Shell２３億ドルとなり、BP、Shell、Totalの３社は過去１年間で最も高い利益を計上している。Shellは総売上高で４社に水を開けているが(上記売上高の推移参照)、上流部門は他社に比べ見劣りがする。
（４－２）下流部門(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-67.pdf 参照)
過去１年間の各社の下流部門の利益は同じような傾向をたどっており、２０１７年第３四半期以降利益は縮小し、今年第２四半期までほぼ連続して落ち込んだのち、第３四半期に至ってようやく上昇に転じている。但しExxonMobilを除き今期の利益は前年同期を下回る状態である。
各社ごとにその推移を見ると以下の通りである。(単位：億ドル)
ExxonMobil: １５．３ → １５．６ → ９．４ → ７．２ → １６．４
Shell： ２４．１ → １１．２ → １８．１ → １１．７ → １７．１
BP: ２１．８ → １７．７ → １８．３ → １４．６ → ２１．１
Total: １０．２ → ８．９ → ７．２ → ８．２ → ９．４
Chevron: １８．１ → １２．８ → ７．３ → ８．４ → １３．７
過去一年間の利益の推移を上流部門と下流部門で比較すると、上流部門は増益傾向にあるのに対して下流部門は今年第２四半期まで減益、第３四半期に回復しているものの一年前の水準には達していない。これは昨年から今年上半期まで原油価格が上昇し、現在高止まりしているためと考えられる。即ち原油価格が上昇トレンドにあるときは上流部門の利益が増加または堅調に推移し、一方下流部門は原油価格上昇時に利益が圧迫され、原油価格が高止まりすると製品価格に転嫁することにより下流部門の採算も向上するためと考えられる。
（５）設備投資の推移 (図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-64.pdf 参照)
５社の四半期ベースの設備投資額はExxonMobilが年間を通じて５社のトップを続けている。またExxonMobilとTotalは各四半期でかなり変動しているが、Shell、BP及びChevronの３社は各社とも投資が平準化されているようである。
ExxonMobilの場合、２０１７年第３四半期の投資額は６０億ドルで翌第４四半期には９０億ドルに膨張したが今年第１四半期には４９億ドルに減り、前期及び今期は６６億ドルと１年前の水準に戻っている。これに対してTotalは昨年第３四半期の投資額は５社の中で最も少ない３４億ドルであったがその後増加し、今期は６２億ドルとほぼ倍増し、ExxonMobilに次ぐ投資額である。
Shell、Chevron及びBP３社はそれぞれ毎期５０億ドル台、４０億ドル台或は３０億ドル台の投資を続けている。
(続く)
本稿に関するコメント、ご意見をお聞かせください。
前田 高行 〒183-0027東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601
Tel/Fax; 042-360-1284, 携帯; 090-9157-3642
E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp
(注)本レポートは「マイライブラリー」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0454OilMajor2018-3rdQtr.pdf
２．２０１７年第２四半期以降の四半期別業績の推移
五社の売上高、利益（全体、上流部門および下流部門）、設備投資、原油・天然ガス生産量に関する２０１７年７－９月期以降今期までの四半期ごとの業績推移は以下の通りである。
（１） 売上高の推移
(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-61.pdf 参照)
２０１７年第３四半期から２０１８年第３四半期に至る四半期ベースの売上高は原油価格の上昇を受けて各社とも増収基調にある。５社の中ではShellが７５８億ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→８５４億ドル（4th Qtr）→８９２億ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →９６８億ドル(2nd Qtr )→１，００２億ドル(3rd Qtr)と５期連続で売り上げトップを続けており、しかも２位、３位のExxonMobil及びBPとの格差は拡がり５社の首位を固める気配である。Shellに次ぐのがExxonMobilとBPでありその売上高の推移は前者が６６２億ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→６６５億ドル（4th Qtr）→６８２億ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →７３５億ドル(2nd Qtr ) →７６６億ドル(3rd Qtr)、後者が６００億ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→６７８億ドル（4th Qtr）→６８２億ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →７５４億ドル(2nd Qtr ) →７９５億ドル(3rd Qtr)であり殆ど差が無い。
この間の四半期平均原油価格（１バレル当たり）の推移をShellの決算資料で見ると４７．０６ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→５５．２８ドル（4th Qtr）→６０．７４ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →６６．２４ドル(’18 2nd Qtr ) →６８．３９ドル(’18 3nd Qtr )であり、昨年第３四半期以降、原油価格は４５％上昇している。
（２）利益の推移
(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-62.pdf 参照)
過去１年間の四半期ごとの利益水準は各社によって異なるものの、いずれもプラスであった。５社の中ではExxonMobilは４０億ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→８４億ドル（4th Qtr）→４７億ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →４０億ドル(’18 2nd Qtr) →６２億ドル(3rd Qtr)と毎期４０億ドル以上の利益を計上、特に２０１７年第４四半期は８４億ドルと他社の２倍以上の利益を記録している。Shellは４１億ドル(2017 3rd Qtr)→３８億ドル（4th Qtr）→５９億ドル(2018 1st Qtr) →６０億ドル(2nd Qtr) →５８億ドル(3rd Qtr)と前期及び前々期はExxonMobilを上回り年間を通じて安定した利益を計上している。
Totalは昨年第３四半期に２０億ドル台の利益を計上したが、第４四半期は１０億ドルに落ち込んだ。しかしその後は増益基調を続け今期は４０億ドルと過去１年間で最高の利益を出している。Chevronも昨年第３四半期以降ほぼ一貫して利益を伸ばしている。
BPは５社の中で利益水準が最も低い状態が続いている。昨年第４四半期は収支トントンの状況であったが、最近の３四半期は３０億ドル前後の利益を計上している。
（３）売上高利益率の推移
(図http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-D-4-63.pdf 参照)
１年前の昨年第３四半期の五社の利益率はExxonMobil、Shell、Total、Chevronの４社はいずれも６％前後であり、BPのみが２．９％の低い水準にとどまっていた。第４四半期には各社の明暗が分かれ、ExxonMobilは１２．６％という高い利益率を示し、Chevronも８．３％で両社の利益率は前期を上回った。これに対しShell、Total及びBPは利益率が低下し、特にBPは０％の利益率にとどまった。今年第１四半期はExxonMobil以外の４社の利益率が向上、Chevronが５社中最高の９．６％の利益率を達成した。前期はChevronが８．１％で５社のトップを維持しTotalが７．１％でこれに続いている。今期はChevronが利益率９．２％と３期連続で５社のトップで、ExxonMobilがこれに続く８．１％の利益率である。BPは５社の中では最も低い利益率が続いているが、過去３期は４％前後で安定している。
(続く)
本稿に関するコメント、ご意見をお聞かせください。
前田 高行 〒183-0027東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601
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E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp
Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Epilogue
7-1(54) Middle East meets Far East
Palestinian refugees who were involved in the war against Israel were expelled from the Palestinian territory of the West Bank of Jordan River and moved to the east of the border, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. But the life was not so easy in Jordan. In late 1960s, they again moved to the east of Jordan, Gulf states. They, however, did not try to make the Gulf state to the last settlement. Their host countries did not give them permanent residence, and they themselves did not like the Bedouin of oil producing countries who was arrogant and incompetent. People in the Gulf countries looked down on the poor Palestinians. Most of Palestinians had expected that Israel and Palestine could agree a peace treaty with a mediate effort of Arab colleague. They hoped to return to their home country when two-state coexistence policy would be realized.
But as there were frequent wars in the Middle East, the Palestinian’s dream of independence has gone away. To make matters worse, Iraq invaded to Kuwait in 1990. The world criticized the violence of President Hussein of Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the monarch states in the Gulf, was afraid seriously that the next target after Kuwait was his country. But Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) had different idea. They supported Hussein regime who claimed to overthrow Israel. As a result, after the Gulf War, both Saudi and Kuwaiti governments ordered Palestinian and Jordanian migrant workers to return to Jordan immediately.
Three Arabs, Khatib, Zahra and Shatila, working at a Japanese oil company that produced the oil in the offshore of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, were forced to be fired. Jordanian Khatib invited Palestinian Zahra to return together to Amman, Jordan. With the savings during the migration and retirement allowance, Khatib planned to be the landlord in Amman and Zahra planned to set up an automobile repair shop. Another Palestinian Shatila decided to imigrate to the United States where his younger brother had been working. Two Palestinians had to leave the Gulf. This time they moved from east to west.
One night, several Japanese colleagues held a farewell party for three Arabs. Guests were served food and beverage. Japanese colleague drunk alcohol drink. In Saudi Arabia alcohol was prohibited, but Japanese staff was assigned a company house where the authority overlooked Japanese drinking habit. All attendees indulged in memories. Shatila spent 30 years in Japanese company. Zahra had been working for 23 years, and Khatib 21 years respectively. It was at the noon of their life. Usually migrant workers did not work so long period for one company. In case of Kuwaiti or Saudi company, they had to be fired by the owner's caprice or they changed spontaneously their job unbearable of the tyrannical owner. But in the Japanese company they could work in peace. The work environment was comfortable. Concession agreement between government and the company was until 2000. They would like to continue to work until that time, if possible. But the Palestinians, who had been at the mercy of history, accepted their destinies calmly.
They sincerely appreciated that they had been able to work in a honest and generous atmosphere of Japanese company. Japan that was defeated by the World War II and burned to the ash achieved miraculous reconstruction. It was an amazing and praising fact that Japanese products such as automobiles, TVs, cassette recorders, refrigerators were overflowing in the daily life. Furthermore, they were so happy that Japanese staff treated them equally without racial discrimination. It was a special experience they never had until entering this company.
When they enjoyed the chat, suddenly they heard the crystal voice of unknown singer from the cassette recorder behind them. It looked like Chinese song. Shatila asked to Japanese colleague what the name of the song was. He answered that the singer was a famous Taiwanese lady and the song’s name was "He ri jun zai lai (When will you come back again)?". The song described that she missed farewell to a loved one and wished to be reunited someday.
好花不常開，
(Lovely flowers don't bloom very often)
好景不常在。
(Beautiful scenes aren't always here to stay)
愁堆解笑眉，
(Worries dissolve my smiles)
涙灑相思帯。
(Memories of love bring back tears)
今宵離別後，
(After you leave tonight)
何日君再来？
(When will you come back again?)
For Palestinians, "you" meant "Goddess of Peace". "Peace" always passed by them quickly. The sweet melancholic lyric and melody evoked nostalgia for them. It was a little bit different from Arabic music. That night, the hearts of ordinary citizens of Middle East and Far East melted into one. It was a moment that Middle East met Far East.
Shatila’s first journey was to the east of Palestine to Jordan and second journey was further to east of Jordan to Gulf countries. But now he turned to west and imigrated to the United States of the Western Hemisphere beyond Palestine. Although he could not be rich there, he spent a peaceful life. It was not easy for Muslims to live in the United States dominated by Christianity, but the United States was still the world's best place to live in peace and safe for everyone. Letters and calls were frequently exchanged between the US and Jordan. It was not sure whether Shatila could meet with his relatives and old friends in Jordan again. Nevertheless, Palestine solidarity was not fluctuated.
One day Shatila was informed by a letter from his father about Rania, a daughter of al-Yashin family, who had been a long-time neighbor. She graduated from university in Cairo and returned Jordan. She became a journalist and met the prince of Hashemite the royal family. They fell in love and married. Rania became a Cinderella. The blood of the Palestinians and the blood of the noble Hashemite families from Prophet Muhammad, the founder of Islam, came together. It was a sign of new era.
(To be continued ----)
