石油の内外情報を読み解く

内外の石油・天然ガス関連のニュースをウォッチしその影響を探ります。(元ジェトロリヤド事務所長 前田高行)

"The Peace on The Horizon - 70 Years after The World War 2 in the Middle East"(51)

2018年10月21日 | 中東の戦後70年

Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

 

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism

 

6-8(51) Short spring banquet

 

"Arab Spring" was named by Western countries, in particular by its media or intellectuals. It was defined as resistance and democratization movement by citizens against the tyranny of dictators in the Middle East and North African countries. The word "spring" in the political scene was used in the Czech democratization movement under the Cold War for the first time, so-called "Prague Spring". The word implied the positive and open-minded meaning. It became a symbol of the resistance movement against USSR communism. Western Europe media became narcissistic to the word itself. In 1968 the Prague Spring was ground down by the intervention of USSR. But in 1989 the Velvet Revolution took place in Czechoslovakia and Unification of East and West Germany followed in the next year. Western countries were convinced that democracy was absolutely correct ideology and that Prague Spring was its forerunner.

 

‘Prague Spring’ made the West European people to believe that Arab Spring would also succeed undoubtedly. However, it could not be denied that Arab Spring brought even more bad chaos and stagnation to each country than before. Human history shows that the radical seeks further reform and the conservatism aims the resurrection of a good old days. They used to fight each other and the society had been disturbed immediately after major reforms. Taking into consideration that it took more than 20 years for the Czech democratization movement to be fulfilled, it might be too early to judge historical meaning of the Arab Spring. After 20 years from now Arab countries might possibly turn into Western style democracy. But it will be exactly "Inshallah (if God wills)."

 

However, it would not be meaningless at this moment to evaluate both countries which were influenced by Arab Spring and which were not. Three identities of Arab World; "Blood (ethnicity)", "Heart (religious faith)" and "Brain (ideology)" would clarify the character of each Arab countries.

 

In Egypt, the demonstration mainly being composed of students took place in Tahrir (Revolution) Square in Cairo in January 2011. It was exactly same timing with the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia. Following on the voices of young students who called to participate to demonstration by SNS, the demonstration had expanded its scale and filled the Tahrir Square. They shouted waving their flags and chanted the slogan; "Kefaya (We are bored)!" They asked for resignation of President Mubarak. Security forces, the followers of President Mubarak, did not overwhelm demonstrators. Police officers on site showed a friendly attitude to the demonstrators at first. To tell the truth, officers themselves were also "Kefaya" for the President.

 

Mubarak, who gave up to persuade public opinion, resigned from the president in February 2011. Then he was arrested on charges of unlawful money making and held in prison. The demonstration continued for a while and the government became malfunction. Citizens hoped to return to a normal and quiet life. The security force ordered to dismiss the demonstration. Students were in the euphoria at that moment with the result of achieving the retreat of Mubarak. But it was unfortunate that they had no clear vision or opinions as to what should be done next or they had insisted different opinion each other.

 

It was the Muslim Brotherhood that gained the power. They squeezed into the gap between citizens and students. The Muslim Brotherhood had already deeply rooted in the life of citizen as a mutual aid organization of Muslims. In response to the general election, they formed a political party, namely "Freedom and Justice Party". On the other hand, students and intellectuals aimed to establish liberal political party.

 

But the prominent intellectuals of the liberal movement had exiled to Western Europe during the Mubarak regime. They were accustomed to the free and safe life there. They were argumentative intellectuals without action and could not understand the pain of the citizens stayed in Egypt. They could not organize the unified political party and could not coordinate with the ordinary citizen who suffered from tyranny. Students who had too much confidence of the SNS power. Even though they could mobilize large-scale demonstration, they could not make the people to join. They had to stand by the well-organized Muslim Brotherhood which took the leadership. Students lamented that the revolution was hijacked by Muslim Brotherhood. It was true that young people spread the news of suicide tragedy of a Tunisian youth by SNS and led the movement of "Arab Spring". However, democratic ideology was still not rooted in Islamic society like in Europe or the United States. Middle East Arab world is still the society that is dominated by blood of ethnicity and religious faith of Islam.

 

Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood gained overwhelming victory in the first fair election in Egyptian history. The reign of President Mohamed Morsi, however, had lasted only one year and so. Morsi with little political experience repeatedly fainted from the economic policy management. In addition, the peoples' heart was completely left from the Muslim Brotherhood due to its nepotism for their members. Young people again demonstrated on the street. Egyptian society became turbulent. People dragged down their President who had elected just a year ago. Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, the military commander, grabbed the power by coup detat and dismissed Morsi. The military government has come back again. Egypt returned to the military regime with strong power. Arab Spring in Egypt ended in two years. People welcomed Sisi enthusiastically and the international community including the Western democratic countries welcomed the political and economic stability of Egypt which was the leader of Arab world.

 

The destiny of "Arab Spring" in other Middle Eastern countries was much shorter than Egypt. Many of them fell into chaos and disorder. After the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, a large number of weapons flowed into the black market and resulted in a civil war between tribes. Same as in Yemen. President Saleh was exiled abroad. Saudi Arabia, as a mediator, helped to establish a new interim government. But as Yemen is the tribal society, Houthi factions gained momentum and former President Saleh joined to Houthi insurgency and occupied the capital Sana'a. The Hadi interim government escaped to Aden and managed to maintain a power with the support by Saudi-led coalition’s airstrike. From the criteria of peace of the international community, Yemen is stigmatized as failed state same as Libya.

 

Syria would be the best example of Arab Spring ended in a failed state. In Syria political powers including Assad administration, Islamic State (IS), Sunni anti-government forces, etc. were split into many factions. At the same time there was also a fight between the international powers which was involved in the fight in search for hegemony. Islamic State was almost destroyed through international cooperation, but while the West and the Arab Sunni countries took a time, the Assad regime with Russian support regained the power. The democratic forces in Syria, which was expected as a flagman of the Arab Spring, revealed inability and was completely diminished.

 

What was the "Arab Spring"? There is endless debate until now. The word “Spring” sounds sweet. The word causes misunderstanding. Western people use “Spring” and democracy almost in the same political meaning. They insist that democracy is absolutely the right ideology in modern society. If so, why they force on their own theory denying the different culture? They are not generous for others.

 

Anyhow, it can be said that "Arab Spring" was a short spring banquet in 2011.

 

(To be continued ----)

 


今週の各社プレスリリースから(10/14-10/20)

2018年10月20日 | 今週の新聞発表

10/16 出光興産 

代表取締役及び役員の異動に関するお知らせ  

http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/company/news/2018/181016_2.pdf

10/16 出光興産 

定款の一部変更に関するお知らせ  

http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/company/news/2018/181016_3.pdf

10/16 出光興産/昭和シェル石油 

株式交換契約の締結及び経営統合に関するお知らせ 

http://www.showa-shell.co.jp/press_release/pr2018/101603.html

10/17 国際石油開発帝石 

幹部社員の人事異動について  

https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20181017.pdf

10/17 Shell 

Shell agrees to sell Upstream Interests in Denmark to Noreco for $1.9 billion 

https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/shell-agrees-to-sell-upstream-interests-in-denmark-to-noreco.html

10/17 Total 

Total Joins Forces With Indian Private Adani Group to Expand in Natural Gas And Fuel Retail Activities in India  

https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/total-joins-forces-indian-private-adani-group-expand-natural-gas-and-fuel-retail-activities-india

10/18 石油連盟 

月岡 石油連盟会長定例記者会見配布資料 

http://www.paj.gr.jp/from_chairman/data/2018/index.html#id1832

10/19 Saudi Aramco 

Saudi Aramco expands presence in China refining market with signing of MOU with Zhejiang Petrochemical 

https://www.saudiaramco.com/en/news-media/news/2018/mou-with-zhejiang-petrochemical


ニュースピックアップ:世界のメディアから(10月19日)

2018年10月19日 | 今日のニュース

・ExxonMobil、中国でLNG基地建設を検討

・サウジアラムコ、中国舟山市に40万B/Dの合弁製油所建設を計画

 


"The Peace on The Horizon - 70 Years after The World War 2 in the Middle East"(50)

2018年10月14日 | 中東の戦後70年

Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

 

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism

 

6-7(50) Arab spring has come

 

Even after the collapse of Hussein regime in Iraq in 2003, many of the Arab countries remained as authoritarian states or hereditary monarchic states of dictatorship. It was not exaggeration to say that democratic states of Western style were only Algeria in North Africa, Lebanon in the Middle East, and Iraq which was beaten up by the United States and struggling for democratization. Gaddafi in Libya, Assad in Syria, Saleh in Yemen, Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia. All of them had maintained the dictatorship for nearly 30 years each.

 

Dictatorship is not always a bad thing. Dictator has a good skill to grab the hearts of the people. In many cases dictator often appears as a hero when the country becomes unsafe and the people moves about in confusion in social and economic turmoil. They acknowledge that he is a dictator, but they have been tired of the confusion. They expect that dictator may bring stability to society. Dictator materializes the order of society by an authoritarian method and catches the heart of citizens firmly with claptrap policy. People enthusiastically support him. They ask him to stay as a leader as long as possible.

 

It is a matter of course that dictator manipulates public opinion with cunning manner. The constitution which prohibited the president 's multiple selection is revised unanimously and he becomes the lifetime president. Then the state will be at the discretion of the dictator. His power becomes quite firm and the regime looks like to continue forever. Furthermore, the dictatorship will transfer to next generation. In Syria, president post was taken over from Hafiz Assad to his son, Bashar Assad, in 2000. The same were Gaddafi of Libya and Mubarak of Egypt where the son intended to inherit power from his father.

 

But absolute power corrupts absolutely. During the long dictatorship, political and social organization erodes gradually. The economy falls into trap of stagflation. Daily life of ordinary people seems not to have been influenced at first sight because the prices of bread, gasoline, water and electricity are maintained in low under the claptrap policy. But the jobless is wandering on the street and ordinary citizens suffer from a opaque feeling which cannot forecast the future.

 

Such a desperate feeling of the common people ignited tragedy in Tunisia in December 2010. Police officers arrested a young jobless man who had been selling vegetables on the street without license by the authority. At that time, the unemployment rate in Tunisia reached in 14%. But unemployment rate of the young generation was terribly as high as 25 to 30%. A young man who was deprived of his bread burned himself to death at the square in front of the city hall protesting against the authority. The burning suicide itself is not so rare in the Islamic world. The incident was reported by local newspaper in the trivial article.

 

However, as one passer-by recorded the incident on the video by chance and posted it to YouTube. The fact expanded at one push. SNS used to spread endlessly once posted on the Internet. The young people who saw the whole story of the tragedy on the Internet immediately launched protests and called for a demonstration. The demonstration quickly spread from the capital Tunis to all over the country. The demonstrators asked President Ben Ali to resign after 23 years reign. Most of the young participants didn’t know the other president since they were born. They cried "We are bored with long dictatorship!” i.e. Kefaya! in Arabic. President Ben Ali could not suppresse anti-government demonstration. After one month he finally exiled to Saudi Arabia after one month.

 

The political change in Tunisia was named the Jasmine Revolution after the national flower of the country. The fire of the revolution quickly spread not only in the northern African countries such as Egypt, Libya, Sudan but also to Syria and Jordan in Levant and Bahrain and Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula. In Cairo, the capital of Egypt, a large number of demonstrators gathered in Maidan(square) at Tahrir (Tahrir means revolution in Arabic) in response to Twitter's call. They collided with army force. There were many casualties. Mubarak's speech, which tried to quell the protestors, rather added fuel to the fire. Eventually President Mubarak resigned in February 2011.

 

The Western media named a series of revolution as "Arab Spring". The Arab Spring inspires anti-government activists in the Middle Eastern countries who were oppressed by tyranny of the dictatorship regime. In Yemen president Saleh was exposed to intense antigovernment demonstrations. His tribal groups and allies in the family betrayed him and he finally gave up dictatorship. One women activist, Tawakkol Karman, who was a leader of the antigovernment demonstration won the Nobel Peace Prize of that year.

 

(To be continued ----)


今週の各社プレスリリースから(10/7-10/13)

2018年10月13日 | 今週の新聞発表

10/7 Total 

Total and Sonatrach Strengthen Their Cooperation in Natural Gas and Petrochemicals in Algeria  

https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/total-and-sonatrach-strengthen-their-cooperation-natural-gas-and-petrochemicals-algeria

10/8 BP 

National Oil Corporation, BP and Eni agree to work to resume exploration in Libya 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/national-oil-corporation-bp-and-eni-agree-to-work-to-resume-exploration-in-libya.html

10/8 Total/ Saudi Aramco 

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco and Total Launch Engineering Studies To Build a Giant Petrochemical Complex in Jubail  

https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/saudi-arabia-saudi-aramco-and-total-launch-engineering-studies-build-giant-petrochemical-complex

10/10 住友商事 

英領北海における探鉱鉱区権益取得の件 

https://www.sumitomocorp.com/ja/jp/news/release/2018/group/10540


ニュースピックアップ:世界のメディアから(10月12日)

2018年10月12日 | 今日のニュース

・イラク、新設国営石油会社のトップにAl-Luaibi石油相任命

・OPEC月報:3か月連続で来年生産見通しを下方修正

・大手石油トレーダー:来年の原油価格を$65-$100と予想

 

 


ニュースピックアップ:世界のメディアから(10月10日)

2018年10月10日 | 今日のニュース

・原油価格:Brent $84.17, WTI $74.53。イラン輸出量4月の250万B/Dから110万B/Dに減少

米Baker Hughes、アブダビADNOCの掘削子会社に資本参加

・サウジアラムコと仏Totalがジュベールで巨大石油化学プラント合弁事業

 


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2018年10月07日 | その他

 これまでにブログおよび各種の雑誌への寄稿等に発表したレポート、エッセイ等を「マイ・ライブラリー(論稿集)」としてまとめました。 日々のニュースをモニタリングしているブログ「アラビア半島定点観測」、「石油の内外情報を読み解く」及び中東問題の評論・分析ブログ「OCIN Initiative (荒葉一也のホームページ)」とあわせてお読みください。

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"The Peace on The Horizon - 70 Years after The World War 2 in the Middle East"(49)

2018年10月07日 | 中東の戦後70年

Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

 

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism

 

6-6(49) Kefaya ! People bored with long dictatorship

 

The Middle East and North Africa are collectively called MENA. It may sound strange to say that MENA region hardly had political change. Since the so-called "Arab Spring" in 2011, the area was hit by a storm of intense political change. However, from Ramadan War (Yom Kippur War) in 1973 to Arab Spring in 2011, most of Arab countries had no experience of the political change for nearly 40 years. The dictatorship continued so long in most of Middle Eastern countries. The long-dictatorship was not only by secular military power in Egypt, Syria but also by monarchic regime by the Gulf countries.

 

Most of the MENA countries are ethnically Arabs except Turkey, Iran and Israel. At the same time, Muslim occupies a majority religious group including Turkey and Iran. Whether the origin of the long-dictatorship regime is in the ethnicity of Arabs or the religion of Islam is difficult to define. It might be said that both of them brought about the long-term dictatorship. The answer is not easy in comparison with the Western countries. But ethnicity and religion are inevitable two elements. Anyhow it could be the right answer that the political stability maintained by dictatorship.

 

It can also be pointed out that the political stability in MENA countries did not bring about the progress of science and technology and the economic prosperity of each country, of which exception was that the Gulf countries achieved prosperity through the oil boom. Despite being a similar authoritarian politics, Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia had differently enjoyed economic prosperity.

 

Colonel Gaddafi of Libya was the first secular dictator in the MENA region. As mentioned in Chapter 4, he defeated the King Idris I in the coup and became the supreme leader in 1969. At that time he was only 27 years old. He kept that position for 42 years then ended the life of 69 at the civil war in 2011.

 

 

Hafiz al-Assad in Syria appeared after Colonel Gaddafi. Hafiz al-Assad from a minority tribe of the Alawi group in northern Syria, which is a Shiite faction, revealed himself within the Baath party after the Air Force officer. Hafiz was elected to the president in 1971 and established a strong regime. He appointed his second son, Bashar al-Assad, as the successor. Bashar al-Assad is the President of Syria until now surviving the long civil war. Reign of al-Assad dynasty has passed nearly half a century.

 

In addition to those who ran up to the top of the country in the 1970s and continued dictatorship for a long time afterwards, there were several dictators such as former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh or former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. After serving as general commander in the army, Saleh was appointed president of North Yemen in 1978 at the age of 36 and kept the presidential post after the reunification of the South and the North Yemen. He was defeated in the Arab Spring in 2011 and lost his position. The term of office of the president was 33 years. After he was dismissed, however, he formed a coalition forces with Houthi insurgency, and occupied the capital Sana'a. Saleh himself was assassinated in 2017.

 

Saddam Hussein of Iraq was an executive officer of Baath Party and appointed president of Iraq in 1979. He survived in Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War. But in 2003 Hussein regime fell down by Iraq War. Hussein was arrested and executed by a trial. The period of his presidency was 24 years.

 

In North African countries, not only in Libya but also in Egypt, Tunisia and Sudan held a long-dictatorship regime. In Egypt Hosni Mubarak climbed up to vice president from an air force officer through four wars with Israel. He was elected to the president in 1981 when Sadat was assassinated. Since then he had been the Egyptian president until the end of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali became Tunisian president in 1987. He was the first victim of the Arab Spring. He resigned and exiled to Saudi Arabia. The last man was Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. After graduating from the cadet in Cairo, Egypt, al-Bashir was promoted in the army and grabbed the power by the coup in 1989. He is still sitting in the presidential seat after almost 30 years.

 

These seven gentlemen were the ones who started from the bottom and reached to the top. But in the Middle East there is another type of powerful dictator. They are the ruling family of the Gulf monarchy such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is an autocratic country ruled by the Saud family. GCC(Gulf Cooperation Organization) countries consisting of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain have been the hereditary monarchy for more than a century period.

 

Young people born in the 1970s and 1980s in these countries had to notice that the head of state was unchanged when he or she became an adult and got married. Young people grew up in a society wrapped up with stagnation. They unanimously shouted; “We are bored!”, which meant in Arabic “Kefaya!”

 

"Kefaya" spread in the early 2000s as a slogan of the movement to protest the Mubarak regime in Egypt. Through the SNS of Internet this word spread in various countries and deeply penetrated among young people. It was the "Arab Spring" in 2011 that the word turned into an actual revolutionary movement.

 

(To be continued ----)

 


今週の各社プレスリリースから(9/30-10/6)

2018年10月06日 | 今週の新聞発表

10/1 国際石油開発帝石 

オーストラリア イクシス LNG プロジェクト コンデンセートの出荷開始について  

https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20181001.pdf

 

10/1 Saudi Aramco 

Saudi Aramco promotes small and medium enterprise investment in Saudi Arabia at first U.S.–Saudi SME forum in Los Angeles 

http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/news/us-saudi-business-council-sme-forum.html

 

10/2 石油連盟 

内閣改造について(会長コメント) 

www.paj.gr.jp/paj_info/press/2018/10/02-001831.html

 

10/2 三菱商事 

LNGカナダプロジェクトの最終投資決定について 

https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/ja/pr/archive/2018/html/0000035813.html

 

10/2 Shell 

Shell gives green light to invest in LNG Canada  

https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/shell-gives-green-light-to-invest-in-lng-canada.html

 

10/4 Saudi Aramco 

Aramco Asia-Japan, Miraikan sign agreement to promote science and technology 

http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/news/aramco-asia-japan-miraikan-agreement-promote-science-technology.html

 

10/5 JOGMEC 

JOGMEC Techno Forum 2018開催及び参加登録開始のお知らせ 

http://www.jogmec.go.jp/news/release/news_01_000124.html