Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism
6-9(52) Deepened chaos in the Middle East
The Middle East of post-World War II was a world where Arab and Israel conflicted. Therefore, it was easy to differentiate the enemy from the ally. Israel was the only one enemy of Islamic world where Arab countries, Iran and Turkey had the same religion, although the ethnicity, language and culture were different each other. They thought that they were unified ally against Israel. The United States was a close ally of Israel, therefore, many of the Middle Eastern countries considered the United States as the enemy. That is, the enemy 's ally is an enemy. However, since the United States is geologically too far from the Middle East, there was US allied country like Iran of Shah regime. Meanwhile Egypt of Nasser regime relied on the USSR.
It was the overwhelming victories of Israel through the Middle East wars in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973, and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 that changed the views of enemy or ally. After the victory of Israel, tensions in the Arab countries were tended to inside Arabs. It was the tension between secular military states such as Egypt, Iraq and religious monarchy states like Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, when the Khomeini regime of Shiite sect was born in Iran, sectarian conflict took place between Shiite and Sunni. Shiite countries of Iran and Syria has antagonized against Sunni countries. To make the problem in complicate was that Bahrain was controlled by a minority Sunni monarchy. And in Syria an autocratic by Alawi sect of Shiite minority oppressed the Sunni and Kurdish people. In Iraq the minority Sunni ruled majority Shiite. In these country the political power was reversed by minority.
As a result, in the Iran-Iraq war, the sectarian conflict of Shiite vs. Sunni in addition to the ethnic confrontation between Arabs and Persians came to surface in duplicate. Strangely enough the monarchy Gulf countries supported the secular state Iraq. In response, Iran supported Syria. In Lebanon proxy war took place between Syria and Israel. Iran also shook out the autocratic Sunni regime of Iraq and the Gulf states agitating Shiites residents in these countries. In addition, the United States which hated Khomeini of Iran supported dictatorship Iraq leaving their democratic principles on one side.
Iran was the enemy of Iraq and confronted by alone. For Gulf countries, ally’s (Iraq’s) enemy was own enemy. The former simple confrontation of Jewish Israel vs. Islamic states including both Arabs and Persians was changed into another phase. New confrontation was Shiite (Iranians) vs Sunni (Arabs) in the Middle East region. Iran and Syria were in the same situation. Israel was the enemy of Syria and Iraq was also the enemy of Syria. This time ally’s enemy was enemy. Israel was the enemy of Iran and at the same time Syria was the ally of Iran. It might sound funny that for Saudi Arabia Iran and Syria were the enemy and at the same time Israel was still enemy which was shared with Iran and Syria. Simple binary confrontation in the past was changed into polynomial stage.
During the age of four Middle East wars, the confrontation was a binary one between Jews and Arab-Islamic countries. But after wars the conflict in the Middle East had three or four axes of confrontation. The political environment had completely changed from binary confrontation to polynomial ones. Whether the enemy's enemy was ally or enemy? Whether the enemy's friend was enemy or ally? There was nothing clear anymore. The conflict became multi-layers. However, the distinction between enemy or ally was classified by country by country. So, it was still clear for each country that who was the ally and who was the enemy.
However, when the conflict took place between the government and the anti-government organization inside one country, it was difficult for the other countries to distinguish enemy or ally. The problem became more complicated if the anti-government organization split into several factions and conflicted each other or they lived together but different worlds. In Syria the superpowers of U.S. and Russia and regional powers of Iran, Turkey or Saudi Arabia wandered which sect they supported; legitimate government or opposition sector(s). Furthermore, Islamic State (IS) declared unilaterally the establishment of the state ignoring the traditional borders. The problem becomes complicated unlimitedly. Syria at present is the difficult polynomial equation to solve.
(To be continued ----)
10/22 経済産業省
「LNG産消会議2018」を開催しました
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2018/10/20181022005/20181022005.html
10/23 国際石油開発帝石
オーストラリア イクシス LNG プロジェクト 液化天然ガス（LNG）の出荷開始について
https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20181023.pdf
10/24 Shell
Shell adds new, deep-water production in Brazil
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/shell-adds-new-deep-water-production-in-brazil.html
10/25 OPEC
JMMC expresses satisfaction with developments in the oil market
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5221.htm
Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism
6-8(51) Short spring banquet
"Arab Spring" was named by Western countries, in particular by its media or intellectuals. It was defined as resistance and democratization movement by citizens against the tyranny of dictators in the Middle East and North African countries. The word "spring" in the political scene was used in the Czech democratization movement under the Cold War for the first time, so-called "Prague Spring". The word implied the positive and open-minded meaning. It became a symbol of the resistance movement against USSR communism. Western Europe media became narcissistic to the word itself. In 1968 the Prague Spring was ground down by the intervention of USSR. But in 1989 the Velvet Revolution took place in Czechoslovakia and Unification of East and West Germany followed in the next year. Western countries were convinced that democracy was absolutely correct ideology and that Prague Spring was its forerunner.
‘Prague Spring’ made the West European people to believe that Arab Spring would also succeed undoubtedly. However, it could not be denied that Arab Spring brought even more bad chaos and stagnation to each country than before. Human history shows that the radical seeks further reform and the conservatism aims the resurrection of a good old days. They used to fight each other and the society had been disturbed immediately after major reforms. Taking into consideration that it took more than 20 years for the Czech democratization movement to be fulfilled, it might be too early to judge historical meaning of the Arab Spring. After 20 years from now Arab countries might possibly turn into Western style democracy. But it will be exactly "Inshallah (if God wills)."
However, it would not be meaningless at this moment to evaluate both countries which were influenced by Arab Spring and which were not. Three identities of Arab World; "Blood (ethnicity)", "Heart (religious faith)" and "Brain (ideology)" would clarify the character of each Arab countries.
In Egypt, the demonstration mainly being composed of students took place in Tahrir (Revolution) Square in Cairo in January 2011. It was exactly same timing with the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia. Following on the voices of young students who called to participate to demonstration by SNS, the demonstration had expanded its scale and filled the Tahrir Square. They shouted waving their flags and chanted the slogan; "Kefaya (We are bored)!" They asked for resignation of President Mubarak. Security forces, the followers of President Mubarak, did not overwhelm demonstrators. Police officers on site showed a friendly attitude to the demonstrators at first. To tell the truth, officers themselves were also "Kefaya" for the President.
Mubarak, who gave up to persuade public opinion, resigned from the president in February 2011. Then he was arrested on charges of unlawful money making and held in prison. The demonstration continued for a while and the government became malfunction. Citizens hoped to return to a normal and quiet life. The security force ordered to dismiss the demonstration. Students were in the euphoria at that moment with the result of achieving the retreat of Mubarak. But it was unfortunate that they had no clear vision or opinions as to what should be done next or they had insisted different opinion each other.
It was the Muslim Brotherhood that gained the power. They squeezed into the gap between citizens and students. The Muslim Brotherhood had already deeply rooted in the life of citizen as a mutual aid organization of Muslims. In response to the general election, they formed a political party, namely "Freedom and Justice Party". On the other hand, students and intellectuals aimed to establish liberal political party.
But the prominent intellectuals of the liberal movement had exiled to Western Europe during the Mubarak regime. They were accustomed to the free and safe life there. They were argumentative intellectuals without action and could not understand the pain of the citizens stayed in Egypt. They could not organize the unified political party and could not coordinate with the ordinary citizen who suffered from tyranny. Students who had too much confidence of the SNS power. Even though they could mobilize large-scale demonstration, they could not make the people to join. They had to stand by the well-organized Muslim Brotherhood which took the leadership. Students lamented that the revolution was hijacked by Muslim Brotherhood. It was true that young people spread the news of suicide tragedy of a Tunisian youth by SNS and led the movement of "Arab Spring". However, democratic ideology was still not rooted in Islamic society like in Europe or the United States. Middle East Arab world is still the society that is dominated by blood of ethnicity and religious faith of Islam.
Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood gained overwhelming victory in the first fair election in Egyptian history. The reign of President Mohamed Morsi, however, had lasted only one year and so. Morsi with little political experience repeatedly fainted from the economic policy management. In addition, the peoples' heart was completely left from the Muslim Brotherhood due to its nepotism for their members. Young people again demonstrated on the street. Egyptian society became turbulent. People dragged down their President who had elected just a year ago. Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, the military commander, grabbed the power by coup detat and dismissed Morsi. The military government has come back again. Egypt returned to the military regime with strong power. Arab Spring in Egypt ended in two years. People welcomed Sisi enthusiastically and the international community including the Western democratic countries welcomed the political and economic stability of Egypt which was the leader of Arab world.
The destiny of "Arab Spring" in other Middle Eastern countries was much shorter than Egypt. Many of them fell into chaos and disorder. After the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, a large number of weapons flowed into the black market and resulted in a civil war between tribes. Same as in Yemen. President Saleh was exiled abroad. Saudi Arabia, as a mediator, helped to establish a new interim government. But as Yemen is the tribal society, Houthi factions gained momentum and former President Saleh joined to Houthi insurgency and occupied the capital Sana'a. The Hadi interim government escaped to Aden and managed to maintain a power with the support by Saudi-led coalition’s airstrike. From the criteria of peace of the international community, Yemen is stigmatized as failed state same as Libya.
Syria would be the best example of Arab Spring ended in a failed state. In Syria political powers including Assad administration, Islamic State (IS), Sunni anti-government forces, etc. were split into many factions. At the same time there was also a fight between the international powers which was involved in the fight in search for hegemony. Islamic State was almost destroyed through international cooperation, but while the West and the Arab Sunni countries took a time, the Assad regime with Russian support regained the power. The democratic forces in Syria, which was expected as a flagman of the Arab Spring, revealed inability and was completely diminished.
What was the "Arab Spring"? There is endless debate until now. The word “Spring” sounds sweet. The word causes misunderstanding. Western people use “Spring” and democracy almost in the same political meaning. They insist that democracy is absolutely the right ideology in modern society. If so, why they force on their own theory denying the different culture? They are not generous for others.
Anyhow, it can be said that "Arab Spring" was a short spring banquet in 2011.
(To be continued ----)
10/22 経済産業省
「LNG産消会議2018」を開催しました
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2018/10/20181022005/20181022005.html
10/23 国際石油開発帝石
オーストラリア イクシス LNG プロジェクト 液化天然ガス（LNG）の出荷開始について
https://www.inpex.co.jp/news/pdf/2018/20181023.pdf
10/24 Shell
Shell adds new, deep-water production in Brazil
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/shell-adds-new-deep-water-production-in-brazil.html
10/25 OPEC
JMMC expresses satisfaction with developments in the oil market
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5221.htm
Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 6: Genealogy of Islamic terrorism
6-7(50) Arab spring has come
Even after the collapse of Hussein regime in Iraq in 2003, many of the Arab countries remained as authoritarian states or hereditary monarchic states of dictatorship. It was not exaggeration to say that democratic states of Western style were only Algeria in North Africa, Lebanon in the Middle East, and Iraq which was beaten up by the United States and struggling for democratization. Gaddafi in Libya, Assad in Syria, Saleh in Yemen, Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia. All of them had maintained the dictatorship for nearly 30 years each.
Dictatorship is not always a bad thing. Dictator has a good skill to grab the hearts of the people. In many cases dictator often appears as a hero when the country becomes unsafe and the people moves about in confusion in social and economic turmoil. They acknowledge that he is a dictator, but they have been tired of the confusion. They expect that dictator may bring stability to society. Dictator materializes the order of society by an authoritarian method and catches the heart of citizens firmly with claptrap policy. People enthusiastically support him. They ask him to stay as a leader as long as possible.
It is a matter of course that dictator manipulates public opinion with cunning manner. The constitution which prohibited the president 's multiple selection is revised unanimously and he becomes the lifetime president. Then the state will be at the discretion of the dictator. His power becomes quite firm and the regime looks like to continue forever. Furthermore, the dictatorship will transfer to next generation. In Syria, president post was taken over from Hafiz Assad to his son, Bashar Assad, in 2000. The same were Gaddafi of Libya and Mubarak of Egypt where the son intended to inherit power from his father.
But absolute power corrupts absolutely. During the long dictatorship, political and social organization erodes gradually. The economy falls into trap of stagflation. Daily life of ordinary people seems not to have been influenced at first sight because the prices of bread, gasoline, water and electricity are maintained in low under the claptrap policy. But the jobless is wandering on the street and ordinary citizens suffer from a opaque feeling which cannot forecast the future.
Such a desperate feeling of the common people ignited tragedy in Tunisia in December 2010. Police officers arrested a young jobless man who had been selling vegetables on the street without license by the authority. At that time, the unemployment rate in Tunisia reached in 14%. But unemployment rate of the young generation was terribly as high as 25 to 30%. A young man who was deprived of his bread burned himself to death at the square in front of the city hall protesting against the authority. The burning suicide itself is not so rare in the Islamic world. The incident was reported by local newspaper in the trivial article.
However, as one passer-by recorded the incident on the video by chance and posted it to YouTube. The fact expanded at one push. SNS used to spread endlessly once posted on the Internet. The young people who saw the whole story of the tragedy on the Internet immediately launched protests and called for a demonstration. The demonstration quickly spread from the capital Tunis to all over the country. The demonstrators asked President Ben Ali to resign after 23 years reign. Most of the young participants didn’t know the other president since they were born. They cried "We are bored with long dictatorship!” i.e. Kefaya! in Arabic. President Ben Ali could not suppresse anti-government demonstration. After one month he finally exiled to Saudi Arabia after one month.
The political change in Tunisia was named the Jasmine Revolution after the national flower of the country. The fire of the revolution quickly spread not only in the northern African countries such as Egypt, Libya, Sudan but also to Syria and Jordan in Levant and Bahrain and Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula. In Cairo, the capital of Egypt, a large number of demonstrators gathered in Maidan(square) at Tahrir (Tahrir means revolution in Arabic) in response to Twitter's call. They collided with army force. There were many casualties. Mubarak's speech, which tried to quell the protestors, rather added fuel to the fire. Eventually President Mubarak resigned in February 2011.
The Western media named a series of revolution as "Arab Spring". The Arab Spring inspires anti-government activists in the Middle Eastern countries who were oppressed by tyranny of the dictatorship regime. In Yemen president Saleh was exposed to intense antigovernment demonstrations. His tribal groups and allies in the family betrayed him and he finally gave up dictatorship. One women activist, Tawakkol Karman, who was a leader of the antigovernment demonstration won the Nobel Peace Prize of that year.
(To be continued ----)
10/7 Total
Total and Sonatrach Strengthen Their Cooperation in Natural Gas and Petrochemicals in Algeria
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/total-and-sonatrach-strengthen-their-cooperation-natural-gas-and-petrochemicals-algeria
10/8 BP
National Oil Corporation, BP and Eni agree to work to resume exploration in Libya
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/national-oil-corporation-bp-and-eni-agree-to-work-to-resume-exploration-in-libya.html
10/8 Total/ Saudi Aramco
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco and Total Launch Engineering Studies To Build a Giant Petrochemical Complex in Jubail
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/saudi-arabia-saudi-aramco-and-total-launch-engineering-studies-build-giant-petrochemical-complex
10/10 住友商事
英領北海における探鉱鉱区権益取得の件
https://www.sumitomocorp.com/ja/jp/news/release/2018/group/10540
