Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 3: The grace of Allah – Oil boom
3-4(26) Searching for wealth – Migrants rushing into Gulf countries
In the 1960s oil consumption was rapidly increased, resulting in oil development rush in oil-producing countries in the Middle East. According to the OPEC data, oil production in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq during 1960 and 1970 increased as follows: In Saudi Arabia its production was increased 2.9times from 1.3 million B/D in 1960 to 3.8 million B/D in 1970, in Kuwait it was increased 1.8 times from 1.7 million B/D to 3 million B/D, and in Iraq, increased 1.8 times from 950,000 B/D in 1960 to 1.55 million B/D in 1970 respectively.
Increase of the production volume meant the increase of state revenues. The coffers of each country became abruptly enriched. The rulers of the countries put the money in their wallet and poured it into their families, but oil money was too much abundant to consume by themselves. The money has been used for the modernization of their countries including infrastructure development, education and medical improvement. Before the discovery of oil, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were extremely poor. It was a pre-modern society where education and medical care were not existed at all. But both countries began to be modernized.
By money, it was not difficult to construct infrastructure such as buildings, roads, bridges, harbors and the like. They asked the European consultant to design the building, ordered the construction works to the companies in Turkey and Egypt, and brought the cheap labor from India and Pakistan. The same was for schools and hospitals. The necessary teaching materials or medical equipment also imported from foreign countries paying by oil dollars.
Social capital was able to be prepared by money. The problem was human resources. Human resources such as school teachers or hospital doctors were inevitable. In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait there were too few teachers and doctors to operate schools and hospitals. Even in Iraq the absolute numbers of teachers and doctors were insufficient due to the rapid increase of needs.
It was essential that teachers and doctors, who are important to communicate with students or patients, could speak Arabic. Arabic speaking talents were required not only in the fields like education and healthcare, but also in business field where the boom also began along with economic development. Saudis and Kuwaitis, however, could not keep the books nor handle cash register. Supply source of manpower were from Egyptians, Palestinians, Lebanese and Jordanians. Oil producing countries had the huge demand on manpower. On the other hand, there were many job-seekers in non-oil producing countries. The demand and supply of both parties matched each other. The job-seekers rushed to the Gulf oil-producing countries like Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
As mentioned before, Palestinian refugee teacher Shatilas moved to Kuwait in 1956 with his son Amin. The family of Zahra was escaped from Elat in Israel to the Jordanian town Aqaba in the same year. In 1963, Zahra was sent to Kuwait when he was only 15 years old because the life in Jordan was not easy at all. He became a clerk of a microscopic shop.
Kuwait accepted large numbers of Palestinians under the humanitarian principle to support refugees. However, the Kuwaiti people did not sympathize with refugees at all, They abused Palestinians as a labor force working with cheap wages. It was like a modern slavery. Kuwaiti people who moved to flourishing urban area from shabby tent life in desert was illiterate and barbarous. They treated the migrant Palestinians who came to Kuwait in search for wealth with cruel and tyrannical behavior. Zahra stood still and remitted most of his cheap salary to his family in Jordan. In the same year, Khatib, the son of merchant in Amman, came to work in Iraq when he was 24 years old with the knowledge of accounting learned in his family business. He had similar experience as that of Zahra.
At that time, Japanese companies which started developing oil in the neutral zone of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia also needed manpower. The company advertised for recruitment several times. Amin Shatila was adopted in the first recruitment in 1961, and then Zahra in 1968. Both were Palestinian refugees, but the Amin Shatila’s nationality in the application documents remained as Palestine, and the nationality of Zahra was changed to Jordan. As Amin's father was proud of being a Palestinian, he did not change the nationality. He dreamed one day to return to his home town Tulkarm and work as teacher again. Meanwhile, the Zahra’s family realized that it was no longer possible to regain farmland in hometown. They changed their nationality to Jordan to make it even more advantageous to get a job. They were called Palestinian Jordanian since then.
Khatib, Jordanian national, also applied to Arabian Oil Company. Petroleum companies in the Middle East had good reputation. Its salaries and social status was better than any other companies. When Khatib sent a letter to the parents in Amman that he changed jobs to oil companies, they were very much appreciated. In the meantime, his father had felt uncomfortable a little bit because the said company was unfamiliar. But his father took into consideration that both Arab and Japan had been trampled on by the Western countries after the World War II, and then Japan revived from the ruins like a phoenix. The parents felt sympathy to Japan, its company and its people.
Led by destiny three Arabs settled in a small town on the Persian Gulf Coast. They were one Palestinian who believed in the reconstruction of homeland, one Palestinian Jordanian who changed the nationality for new life, and one Jordanian who had dream of a prosperous future. They worked together as employees in the same office of a Japanese oil company.
(To be continued ----)
4/24 JXTGホールディングス ＪＸＴＧホールディングスおよび中核事業会社の会長・社長人事等について
https://www.hd.jxtg-group.co.jp/newsrelease/20180424_01_01_2003054.pdf
4/24 Shell Shell invests in the Vito development in the Gulf of Mexico
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/shell-invests-in-the-vito-development-in-the-gulf-of-mexico.html
4/26 Shell Royal Dutch Shell plc first quarter 2018 results announcement *
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2018/first-quarter-2018-results-announcement.html
4/26 BP SOCAR and BP sign new production sharing agreement for Azerbaijan exploration
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/socar-and-bp-sign-new-production-sharing-agreement-for-azerbaijan-exploration.html
4/26 BP Helge Lund to succeed Carl-Henric Svanberg as BP chairman
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/helge-lund-to-suceed-carl-henric-svanberg-as-chairman.html
4/26 Total 2018 First Quarter Results *
https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/2018-first-quarter-results
4/27 JXTGエネルギー 組織の改正について
https://www.noe.jxtg-group.co.jp/newsrelease/2018/company/20180427_02_0951897.html
4/27 ExxonMobil ExxonMobil Earnings Increase 16 Percent to $4.7 Billion in First Quarter 2018 *
http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-earnings-increase-16-percent-47-billion-first-quarter-2018
4/27 Chevron Chevron Reports First Quarter Net Income of $3.6 Billion *
https://www.chevron.com/stories/chevron-reports-first-quarter-net-income-of-3-6-billion
*ExxonMobil他五大国際石油会社の第一四半期業績は追って本ブログでレポートします。
昨年第4四半期及び通年の業績比較は下記をご覧ください。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0435OilMajor2017.pdf
・米のイラン制裁予想、ベネズエラ減産で原油価格上昇。Brent $74.27, WTI $68.19。
・イラク、石油開発契約をCrescent社他と締結、ExxonMobil、Totalは敬遠。
＊ExxonMobil、Shell他国際石油企業の業績速報は近く本ブログでレポートします。
昨年第4四半期及び通年の業績は下記を参照ください。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0435OilMajor2017.pdf
4/18 JOGMEC ASEAN＋3石油備蓄ロードマップ会合を開催 ～ASEAN諸国の石油備蓄体制整備への協力、働きかけの推進～
http://www.jogmec.go.jp/news/release/news_06_000389.html
4/18 三井物産 豪州石油ガス資源開発会社AWE Limitedの公開買付けの再延長に関するお知らせ
http://www.mitsui.com/jp/ja/release/2018/1226098_11199.html
4/19 石油連盟 木村 石油連盟会長定例記者会見配布資料
http://www.paj.gr.jp/from_chairman/data/2018/index.html#id1812
4/20 住友商事 FPSOおよびFSOの保有・傭船事業に関する覚書の締結について
https://www.sumitomocorp.com/ja/jp/news/release/2018/group/10120
4/20 OPEC Participating OPEC-non-OPEC Countries Achieve Highest Ever Conformity Level
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/4963.htm
2018.4.17
荒葉一也
Areha_Kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
(注)本レポートは昨年(2017年)3月の「(ニュース解説)サウジアラムコIPO(株式公開)の行方は？」の続報です。合わせてお読みいただくことをお勧めします。
UDL：http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0400AramcoIpoMar2017.pdf
「虎の子」が「張子の虎」になりかねないアラムコIPOの暗雲
鳴り物入りで始まったサウジアラビア国営石油会社サウジアラムコのIPO(株式公開)の雲行きが怪しくなっている。2016年にムハンマド皇太子(略称：MbS)が発表した構想ではアラムコの企業価値を2兆ドルと査定し、その5％即ち1千億ドルの株式を2018年中にサウジ国内及び海外市場に上場するというものであった。その後欧米の一流金融機関をアドバイザーに起用、公開準備が着々と進んでいるやに見えた。
MbSは2030年までに石油に依存しない経済を樹立するという野心的な計画「ビジョン2030」を打ち出し、非石油産業の育成を掲げた。そしてそのための資金的裏付けとして国営のサウジアラムコを株式会社に転換、株式市場を通じて国内外の民間資金の導入を図ろうという腹づもりである。これまで石油経済からの脱却を声高に唱えながら、今も石油に依存せざるを得ない現状を打開するには「虎の子」のサウジアラムコを利用するしかないという皮肉な状況に追い込まれているのである。
ところが最近になってアラムコの準備作業の遅れがささやかれ、IPOは2019年にずれ込むとの報道が目立ち始めた。また海外の上場先についてもニューヨーク市場が本命と言われながらいまだに決まらない状況である。さらにサウジ政府が約束していたアラムコの資産状況を示す財務諸表も公表されていない。また皇太子が見積もったアラムコの企業価値2兆ドルは高すぎるという一部欧米アナリストの懸念も払しょくされていない。
このままでは「虎の子」のアラムコが「張子の虎」になりかねない状況である。アラムコが欧米のスーパーメジャーを凌ぐ世界最大の石油会社であることは間違いなく、「張子の虎」と呼ぶのは無礼かもしれないが、アラムコの実態が部外者にはほとんどわからず、またIPOが難航しているという意味で筆者はアラムコを「張り子の虎」と見立てたのである。
どんどんずれ込む公開時期
アラムコのIPOは2016年1月に当時副皇太子であったムハンマド(MbS)がEconomist誌のインタビューで初めて明かした。世界のメディアがこのニュースに飛びつき、IPOの時期或は海外のいずれの株式市場に上場するかで情報が乱れ飛んだ。同年4月には早々とIPOアドバイザーが選定され、当事者から公開時期を2018年とする発言が繰り返されるなど、公開準備が着々と進んでいる様子がうかがわれた。さらに政府関係者からは同社の財務諸表が2017年中に作成されるとの発言も飛び出した。
ところがその後はサウジ側からの新たな公式発表は途絶えたままで、FalihアラムコCEOはメディアからIPOの遅れを問われると、作業は予定通り進んでおり、2018年中に上場すると判で押したように答えるばかりである。リヤド株式市場Tadawulに加えニューヨーク或はロンドンで上場する場合、上場審査期間を考慮すると今年第1四半期が申請書類提出期限と見られており、すでにタイムリミットは過ぎている。このため今年中の外国市場への上場は不可能と考えるのが順当であろう。
ニューヨーク上場が本命だが
サウジでは当初からリヤド市場の他、複数の海外市場での上場を目指していた。アラムコの企業価値2兆ドル、IPO規模1千億ドルをリヤドのTadawulだけで賄うことは庭先の池に鯨を放つに等しい暴挙であり無理がある。海外での公開先はニューヨークNYSEとロンドンLSEに絞られており、ロンドンは好条件をちらつかせているが、MbSの狙いが世界最高のネームバリューを有するニューヨーク上場にあることは疑う余地が無い。但し資本主義の牙城ともいえるNYSEは投資家保護のため上場基準が厳しい。まして米国内には９１１事件を契機とするサウジ・アレルギーが強くJASTA法も立ちはだかっている。また名うての訴訟社会の米国では上場後も決算内容によっては訴訟リスクが避けられない。
ニューヨーク(あるいはロンドン)上場に替わる代案としてロシア・中国の投資家に直接譲渡する案も飛び出しているが政治的リスクはこちらの方が大きく、MbSとしては何とかNYSE上場を実現したいはずである。ここから先は筆者の憶測であるが、MbSは今回の訪米時にトランプ大統領との会談の中でアラムコの上場について米国政府の格別の配慮を要請したと推測される。英国がメイ首相自ら誘致条件の緩和を提案しているだけに、MbSはトランプ大統領に期待したはずである。しかし報道を見る限りアラムコIPO問題が取り上げられた形跡はない。仮に両者の会談でIPO問題が触れられたとしても、多分トランプ大統領はビジネスライクな対応をとったに違いない。
蛇足ながら今回のMbSの訪米はアラムコ問題に限らずエルサレム大使館移転問題、シリア問題などあらゆる点においてMbSの希望を打ち砕いたように見えるのである。アラムコ上場問題は混迷の深まるサウジアラビアの一面を示していると言えよう。
以上
Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 3: The grace of Allah – Oil boom
3-2(24) Formation of OPEC
Crude oil price in 1948 after World War II was $ 2.8 per barrel. Barrel is a measurement unit peculiar to petroleum. When there was no dedicated transport facility like a pipeline or tank lorry, oil was put in a wooden barrel, loaded on a coach and sent to the market. One barrel is 42 gallons corresponding to 160 liters. Therefore, the crude oil price at that time was 2 cents per liter, and around 2 yen in Japanese currency. It would be 25 dollars of the present value taking into consideration the subsequent inflation ratio. This price was not much different from the bottom price in 2015.
The oil-producing countries, however, got only nominal share of selling price. They got royalties and small amounts of dividends paid by Western oil companies including Seven Sisters. Oil producing countries negotiated with oil companies in search of an increase in share. But their efforts had been meaningless. Western oil companies monopolized every fields of business from crude production, refining, distribution and marketing. Oil producing countries could not stand to oil companies. It was a typical example that in 1951 Prime Minister Mossadegh of Iran tried to nationalize the oil industry, but he was defeated by severe counterattacks of Seven Sisters.
Demand for oil increased rapidly during the postwar reconstruction period, so oil companies were able to get sufficient profits merely by increasing production while leaving prices unchanged. It was good news for oil consuming countries and consumers that oil was cheap. Japan was the country that received the greatest benefit. With cheap oil as a weapon, Japan overcame the hard time of post-war era and reeled up the coming high growth.
However, in the postwar recession in 1959 when the demand for oil dropped, Seven Sisters lowered the crude oil purchase price (posted price, P.P.). Until then, the oil producing countries had been suffered from decreasing revenue due to the upsurge of inflation. Their revenue has fallen further with the lowering of the posted price.
It was out of patience for oil producing countries. They stand up against oil majors. Oil producing countries had learned from the Iranian case that they could not defeat oil majors by individual negotiation. They had to unite together. In September 1960 OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) was formed. Initial member states were Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela. All of them had no means to earn the money other than oil. Libya, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria have joined the OPEC one after another in the following 10 years.
OPEC member countries struggled against the oil majors aiming to increase oil revenue, but the wall was thick and the results did not go up very well. There was only one means left. It was the nationalization of oil industry which Iran could not fulfill formerly. The radical Libya, which was not satisfied with moderate members such as Saudi Arabia, nationalized the oil industry in 1970 as a front runner. Muammar Gaddafi had grasped the power in coup d'etat one year before. His many barbarous political decisions were famous, and the nationalization of the oil industry was his first brutal outcome.
Nationalization of the petroleum industry will be the trend of the world afterwards. In the background there were two UN resolutions on natural resources. The first one was the resolution 1803 of "Permanent sovereignty over natural resources" at the United Nations General Assembly in 1962. This was further strengthened by the resolution 2158 of 1966. At this time, three principles were resolved; (1) Resources are originally attributable to their own country, (2) Development and sales of resource are self-directed by the country where the resource is located, (3) Foreign capital engaged in resource development is to be controlled by host country. It clearly recognized the validity of nationalization of natural resources.
OPEC who gained the courage by the UN resolutions started the marching in the 1970s. Not only did it fear Seven Sisters, but also it caused oil shocks around the world when Yom Kippur War / October War took place in 1973. Oil consuming countries were scared furiously.
(To be continued ----)
