中国政府は、経済成長を維持する為に更なる国内消費増加政策を取るだろうという記事です。
中国が公共投資を中心に4兆円の内需拡大政策を採ることは既報であり、これを好感する国内外の経済評論家のコメントがたくさん出されています。一方で、日本のかっての経済政策同様、公共投資に隔たりすぎているという批判もあります。
記事によれば、GDPの3分の一を占める自動車、鉄鋼、繊維、産業機械、造船など9つの産業別に各施策をとっていくことになるだろう。そのうち自動車と鉄鋼についてはほぼ草案ができたという事の様です。
今年の第産三半期までの経済成長率が9%というところで、来年の8%成長の目標を如何に達成するのか政府としても必死なのでしょう。実際のところ、2008年第四四半期の経済成長率が何%だったのか、近々発表されるでしょうが非常に興味深いところです。輸出が11月に前年比マイナス2.2%、財政収支が10月に10年ぶりに前年比マイナスということですから、第四四半期のみに限ればほとんど前年比での成長が無いのではないかと考えてしまいます(別な記事を見ていましたら、上海の産業銀行?によれば第四四半期の成長率は5.5%と予測しているようです)。
来年度は、下半期の国内需要の成長が貢献して、年間8%の成長を目指すという事の様ですが、上半期が期待できないとすると、下半期の成長率は当然2008年比で10%以上の成長率を目標とすることになるのでしょうね。各企業が、上半期中に在庫を整理して下半期から新たに調達をする事を期待するというコメントもあるようですが、さぁ、どうなる事か。。
いずれにしろ、対ドルの為替政策は当面変更しないでしょうが、増値税の還付率の拡大を含め輸出促進策が色々とられていくのでしょう。今年は中国への輸出より日本への輸出を考えるビジネスの方が良いのかもしれません。
でも。。。中国から日本に輸出して販売できるものって限られていますよね。。ベビー用品なんて、誰も見向きもしないでしょうし私自身が子供には上げたくないですから。。困ったなぁ。。楽天見てもお茶とシノワズリ位しかない。
Additional stimulus in the pipeline
(China Daily/Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-01-03 08:33
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The nation's economic stimulus measures will go beyond the announced 4-trillion-yuan package as more industry-specific policies are rolled out, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday.
Economic stimulus package "right step at the right time"
China planner offers details on 4 trillion yuan stimulus package
The government is refining and augmenting the package, because it was "rather preliminary" when announced on Nov 9, he said.
During his visit to Qingdao, a manufacturing and export hub in Shandong province, the premier said that the government is working on "a basket of measures" to prevent the economy from an excessive slowdown.
A number of industry-tailored policies are in the making, and two of them, for the auto and steel industries, have already been drafted, Wen said without elaborating.
The 21st Century Business Herald reported in the middle of last month that the government was drafting measures to bolster nine industries which account for one-third of GDP. They include the auto, steel, textile, equipment machinery and shipbuilding sectors.
Wen on Friday also called for early implementation of medium- and long-term plans related to science and technology.
"All such plans, if strongly related to economic development, should be expedited," he said.
Striking a note of confidence, Wen said the country's vast market, abundant labor resources, sound financial system and adequate liquidity would help it tide over the global financial crisis.
In recent months, the authorities have announced a slew of macro-economic policies - including aggressive government spending, tax rebates and interest rate cuts - in the hope of raising domestic consumption at a time when sagging global demand is crippling its traditional growth engine, exports.
GDP growth slowed to 9 percent in the first three quarters of 2008 as a result of the financial crisis, compared with 11.9 percent for all of 2007.
Exports slid 2.2 percent year-on-year in November, the first monthly decline since June 2001, and fiscal revenues recorded their first monthly decrease for 12 years in October.
With more stimulus measures in the pipeline, economists believe the country's economy would pick up steam in mid-2009 with full-year growth exceeding 8 percent.
"The stimulus measures are likely to pay off in the second quarter of this year," said Li Jing, chairman of China Equities, JP Morgan Securities.
Zhang Yansheng, head of the international economy research institution affiliated to the National Development and Reform Commission, said rising domestic demand in the second half would cushion the impact of plunging exports as macroeconomic measures and stimulus packages take further effect.
Li Yang, director of the Institute of Finance and Banking affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the economy would shake off the impact of the global economic turmoil and resume rapid growth in the second half.
According to the central economic work conference held last month, rural consumption and spending on housing, cars, services and tourism would be the focus of efforts to boost domestic consumption.
Yi Gang, deputy governor of the central bank, said he expects domestic enterprises to draw down inventories by the end of the second quarter and purchase new production goods, which would be a signal of recov