preparation for a Presentation

Abstract
The abductions by North Korea are very emotional issues for Japanese people in that their friends and family might be abducted by North Korea. The abduction was not an essential issue at the first round of Japan- North Korea normalisation talks, but it has become a serious issue after North Korea admitted the abduction. Japanese politicians are not able to send aid to North Korea to improve its relationship, because the popularity of North Korea is very low in Japan. Also, because of its low economic potential, there is little benefit for Japanese to normalize its relationship.

Introduction
Abductions by North Korea were the most un-expected reason for victims' families and for other Japanese citizens as well. The abduction issues were not important for first Japan-North Korea normalisation talk. It took about twenty to thirty years for the real reasons of 'disappearing Japanese people' to become apparent, and since North Korea admitted the abductions, the Japanese government has not been able to progress in its normalisation talks. People from more than twelve countries have likely been abducted, but North Korea has admitted only thirteen Japanese cases, and other governments are not taking a serious stance against North Korea.

Yasushi and Fukie’s case.
The closest related case of abductions for me is Yasushi Timura and Fukie Hamamoto's case. They were an engaged couple and disappeared on the night of July 7, 1978, when they went driving to a lookout point at a local park on the date of the Japanese star festival. This park is about ten minutes drive from my father's family house, and their ages were almost the same as my parents. They were twenty-three years old at the time, and I am twenty-two years old now. I have been to the park sometimes as well. It is a good place to enjoy scenery of Wakasa-bay with many cherry trees. When Yasuhi and Fukie disappeared, people started searching but they found only his light truck. At the time, people thought the couple had eloped together, but they left their car at the park and both parents were happy with their marriage and there was no reason for them to escape. More than ten years later, in the 1990’s, this incident appeared as one of a sequence of abductions by North Korea. Twenty years later, in 1998, their parents, other victims’ families and supporters established a NGO; the Japanese rescue movement, to lobby the Japanese government to rescue the victims. Fortunately, North Korea has admitted this case and they were able to come back to Japan in 2002, twenty-four years after the event. At the time North Korea admitted the abductions of thirteen Japanese and returned five people and informed that eight victims had died by accident or suicide. Yasuhi’s father is still alive and he was able to meet his son when they came back, but Yasushi’s mother and Fukie’s parents had passed away already. Yasushi and Fukie had married in North Korea and have two sons and a daughter. Those children were able to come to Japan in 2004, two years after their parents went to Japan. If I were kidnapped tonight, I would be forty-six years old when I would next be able to meet my parents.

Its influences upon Japan-North Korea normalisation talk.
Japan-North Korea normalisation talks have started in 1991 after the collapse of USSR. Since the beginning, Japanese government have been asking North Korea to deal with the problems, but North Korea had not admitted (MOFA, 2006). After normalisation of Russia-South Korea relationship in 1990 and normalisation of China- South Korea relationship in 1991, the Japanese government had less passion for working on the abduction problems. Especially, after inter- Korean summit meeting in 2000, Japan became the only country, which did not have friendly relationship with North Korea in the area around the Sea of Japan. The Japanese government donated five hundred tons of rice through the World Food Program in 2000, regardless of progress of the abduction problems, to improve Japan- North Korea relations and to support North Korean people in poverty. However, it was the best season for Japan and North Korea's relationship. In 1997, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan made a suggestion to deal with the abduction issues, that North Korea can release abducted victims in third country without admitting the crime and Japanese can find them 'accidentally' so they can meet their family. When this suggestion was leaked to the Japanese Mass media, left-wing parties started accusing governing parties that they made up the abduction issue to break-up friendly relations with North Korea. (Lee, 2002)(Kim, 2006).
When Japanese prime minister went to Pyongyang for a summit meeting, North Korea finally admitted the abduction and returned five Japanese, but the announcement that eight other Japanese had died was surprising. Also, Japanese guard boats had a gunfight against a suspicious boat in the East China Sea in 2001, and the boat was likely North Korean. North Korea has decreased in popularity rapidly in Japan. According to a survey, more than seventy percent of Japanese people feel North Korea as a threat. In 2004, Japanese prime minister went to Pyongyang again for a second summit meeting and North Korea released families of returned victims and Japan donated two hundred tons of food and ten million dollars worth of medical aid, but it could not improve the situation. North Korea denied abductions of other Japanese people and halted further investigation. Japanese people are not satisfied with their argument. Moreover, because North Korea consists of less than one percent as a Japanese trade partner, there is no need to normalise its relationship for economic reasons. (Lee, 2002)(Kim, 2006). Recently, the Japan- North Korea normalisation talks were disrupted not only by the abduction issues but also by North Korean nuclear testing and development of weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, because of low popularity of North Korea in Japan, Japanese governing parties cannot promise reward to North Korea for giving up those weapons.

Abduction worldwide
The Japanese government recognised seventeen cases as abductions but the NGO: Japanese rescue movement suspects there are more than a hundred Japanese victims and asks Japan for further investigations and diplomatic pressures. Nearly five hundred people seem to have been abducted from South Korea and potential victims are believed to be from twelve countries, such as Malaysia, France, Italy, Netherlands and China. North Korea had admitted abductions of only thirteen Japanese. (NARKN, 2006). South Korea is likely to ignore the abduction issues to improve its relationship with North Korea.

Conclusion:
The ‘1997 suggestion’ is the only solution in the abduction issue for normalising relationship and decreasing development of weapons of mass destruction. North Korea has admitted the thirteen cases but they do not have to admit other cases, as long as families are able to meet each other. However, there is no necessity for Japan to normalise its relationship because North Korea is not an important trade partner.

30.711

There are two IRRs for Project X. One is 10.43 and the other is in the negative rate. Then, Project Y has one IRR, which is 9.78. Therefore, there are four possible situations along change of IRR.

1. When IRR is in the negative rate where NPV of Project X is positive. In a common sense, the required rate of return does not become negative, so there is no need to consider the case when IRR of Project X is negative.
2. When the required rate of return is from 0 to 9.78, NPV of Project X is always negative but NPV of Project Y is always positive. So, Project Y is preferable to Project X, moreover, Project X is not considerable.
3. When the required rate of return is from 9.78 to 10.43, NPV of Project X is negative as well as NPV of Project Y is negative. So both projects are not considerable.
4. When the required rate of return is above 10.43, NPV of Project X is positive but NPV of Project Y is negative. So, Project X is preferable to Project Y, moreover, Project Y is not considerable.

If a project has only positive future cash flows, such as Project Y, NPV of the project decreases as the required rate of return increases. Therefore, the project is profitable only when the required rate of return is below IRR. On the other hand, if a project has both negative and positive cash flows, such as Project X, NPV of the projects fluctuates either from negative to positive and from positive to negative, as the required rate of return changes. The project may be considerable both below one of IRRs and above one of IRR. It requires specific calculation to consider.


c:
Capital budgeting techniques include capital costs or opportunity costs of the investment. So, the capital budgeting is more accurate than calculating only simple cash flow, such as payback period and accounting rate of return. There is always a capital costs, such as interest payments or devaluation of capitals, when a business starts. Even when the cash flow of a project itself is positive, it may not cover opportunity costs of the projects. An investor might receive higher return by simply depositing money in a bank.
In addition, calculating simple cash flow does not include 'time-value' of money that people prefer receiving money now to receiving someday in the future. Far future cash flow is not discounted, and it worth the same values as the cash flow today. In the case of Project X, ARR is never positive because simple cash flow is negative when 'time-value' is not included. In the term, Project X is never considerable. However, NPV of Project X can be positive when required rate of return is above 10.43. Investor can miss the opportunity to make a profit when they are not using the capital budgeting.
Moreover, in the case at a project has both positive and negative cash flow, it has could have some payback period. For example; the Project X, the payback periods are the first year and another year after the second year. It would be complicating.
ARR Payback period
X -4% 0.4 year/ ---
Y 15% 1.75 year



d:
Capital rationing is to distribute scarce resources to number of investments, among which have positive NPV. It exists only when there are capital costs and investment risks and some profitable investment choices. When Japanese Central Bank practiced qualitative easing of money supply to create excessive liquidity, capital costs almost disappeared and the capital rationing did not exist.
In cases of projects X and Y, because the company has limited amount of resources, which is only $2,000,000, and they are not using any debt finance, there is capital rationing that either project X or Y will be accepted. If the company is seeking short-term bigger cash inflow for other investment with higher rate of return of more than 10.43, it will choose Project X. Then, if the capital rationing is based on NPV of those projects with the required rate of return of 9%, it will choose Project Y. That is because only Project Y has positive NPV at the rate.

suggestions

Along with continuity of the "care girl project", we would like to suggest some other solutions for this issue. The most basic foundation of the issue is a stereotype that Chinese people have. According to Confucianism, only male is able to pass a family line to next generation, but as one Chinese advertisement reads "there's no difference between having a girl or a boy - girls can also continue the family line", the stereotype must be defeated to reduce the gender gap. There are some solutions such as creating new social image of female gender, establishing equal social position for female, and preparing tax incentives and welfare systems for having girl children.
One solution is creating new social image of female through advertisement, such as TV drama and movies. As long as image of female social standard is below male's, it is hard to encourage people to be satisfied with female babies. So, there is need for TV dramas or movies, which successful career women taking over men's part. When people are thinking that women are like to stay at homes to do housework, female cannot play important role in a society and they cannot generate income for households. The parents cannot expect their daughters to be independent or to support their retirement. Therefore, a TV programme should create a new image of female in a society, such as career women or leading researchers. If people believe that female is able to work as much as or even better than males, parents does not have to expect male babies. Also, the TV programmes would provide opportunities for female students to image their future careers and encourage them to seek alternative successes. When girls have only an image of their future as housewives that their mother has been, they would not wish to have education and grab a success in the society. Girls need a successful symbol that they can synchronise their future. The TV drama should create male image doing housework as well for gender free society. Then, by women participating society more, by working for company or contributing scientific research, companies are able to choose their employees from more candidates than from only men, and research organizations would have more successful discoveries as well. Because Chinese government owns and controls all famous Chinese mass medias, this is very easy method to practice.
Nevertheless, while Chinese society have not prepared for women to participate, the advertisement strategy cannot improve female social situation actually and parents do not want to have female babies. There are needs of actual spaces for women to fill in the society without disadvantages, so providing equal educational opportunities for girls is required. When parents tend to expect and invest more for boys to let them gain better education, it is hard for girls to catch up without social support. Especially, status of a university, where they have graduated, decide their individual social status in Asian countries, all national universities, including the Beijing University, should allow the same numbers of male and female student to come, to establish equal social status for men and women. That also means girls can go to better universities easier than boys, because of less competition, when absolute number of girls is less than that of boys. Some parents would expect more on their daughters to go to better universities, and some parents will have girl babies strategically. This university enrolment control is also easy method to practice because all national universities are managed by the government and the authority is to check educational standard of private universities as well.
Even after the same opportunity of education is provided for boys and girls, China must support women to be able to work evenly to men. Even a talented woman, she cannot proof their ability to work without having actual jobs provided by an organization. To lead the society providing the same opportunities for women, the National People's Congress of China should set a required balance of gender for its representatives, such as 'a half of all parliament members must be female' or 'more than a quarter of all the members must be female'. This will send a transparent message to Chinese people that men will not dominate the society. It is the same as the case of university enrolment, because the absolute number of female is less than that of males, women can take advantage of this system. That would encourage people to have girl babies or encourage parents to take care of their daughter better. In addition, by setting minimum number for female to parliament members, the authority can set the minimum requirement of female members for management board of private companies with fewer conflicts.
If a company must recruit certain number of female board members, it must focus on preparing training programme for candidates regardless their genders, because a company cannot compete in the global economy with hiring people with less ability. Even where both genders are treated equally when they just graduate universities and start working, women will not be treated equally for next forty years. Women are more likely to leave the career path, especially when they take a long-term break to have a birth for their children. This time off and disadvantages for women will be reduced by encouraging men to contribute more to childcare, but it cannot be eliminated. When a company does not have to have women at management level, it will give up training females and there will be less female management. To create symbols and success stories of career women to reduce the gender gap, Chinese government should set minimum gender requirement for board members of private companies. Therefore, companies will establish training scheme that redeems disadvantages of female workers to go on their career path.

On the other hand, it will take times for advertisement campaigns to change the image of 'female success' and to become widespread in Chinese society. Short-term incentives to protect female babies are required to attack the issue now. The short-term incentives would be preparing social welfares such as free school and free medical care for girl babies and generous pension plans for their parents.
Already, under a pilot programme of the "Girl Care project" at Fujian province, couples who limit themselves to have two girls would receive combined annual pension of about $150 for the rest of their lives, and preferential treatment in health care, housing and employment would be provided as well. The authority allocates about $24 million for nearly 500 thousand families with about 100 thousand girls. Also, those girls are able to receive free education.
While people are not able to expect their daughter to have relatively better life, they would not spend much money on girls. This negative image increase the gap in short-term with increasing educational gap and disadvantages of medical condition. The authority must provide free education plan for girls hopefully until they can gain advanced schooling experiences, such as until they graduate a high school or a university. Also, it must prepare free medical care to support girls. That would improve their desperate living condition and they can start planing their career path for their future. In Chinese culture, child must take care of their parents after their retirement. When sum of women whole life salary is less than that of men, parents cannot be comfortable their retirement supported by a daughter. So, the authority must provide pension plan for those parents to satisfy their life. These will motivate people to have a girl baby and reduce the gender gap.

Chapter 14

Chapter 14
Interest rate and Currency swaps:

Financial risks: 1. Exchange rate
2. Interest rate
3. Commodity prices
influence on cash flow of Multi-National Corporations


Interest rates are currency-specific: each currency has its Interbank interest rate market.
? LIBOR: London Interbank Offered Rate
? PIBOR: Paris Interbank Offered Rate
? MIBOR: Madrid Interbank Offered Rate
? SIBOR: Singapore Interbank Offered Rate
? FIBOR: Frankfurt Interbank Offered Rate

? British Bankers Association (BBA) calculates LIBOR of US dollar, Japanese yen, euro and other currencies from means of interbank offered rates of samples of multinational banks, at approximately 11 a.m. London time.
? LIBOR is used in standardised quotation, loan agreement or financial derivatives.
? A firm will pay/earn the interest rate of LIBOR + Spread, which is company- specific.


Risks of interest rates:
? Credit risk / roll-over risk: when lenders and borrowers renew a credit. E.g. changing fees, changing interest rate, altered credit line commitments, or denial.
? Repricing risk = changes in interest rates charged (earned) at the time a financial contract's rate is reset.



Three debt strategies to finance $1 million for a three-year period.
1. Borrow $1 million for three years at fixed rate of interest = cash-flow is predictable with sacrificing the ability to enjoy lower interest rate. no credit/repricing risk.
2. Borrow $1 million for three years at a floating rate, LIBOR +2%, to be reset annually = no credit risks, but the interest rates could go up as well as down.
3. Borrow $1 million for one year at a fixed rate, then renew the credit annually = flexibility as well as risks.


To manage interest rate risks associated with the loan agreement.
? Refinancing
? Forward rate agreement
? Interest rate futures
? Interest rate swaps


Forward Rate Agreement (FRA):
The buyer of an FRA obtains the right to lock an interest rate for desired term. The seller of the FRA will pay the buyer the increased interest expense on a nominal sum/principal of money, if interest rate rise above the agreed rate. The seller will receive the differential interest expense if interest rates fall below the agreed rate.



Interest rate futures:
Unlike foreign currency futures, it is relatively popular because of liquidity of the markets. The two most widely used futures contracts are
? Eurodollar futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
? US Treasury Bond Futures of the Chicago Board of Trade
By selling the future contract or taking a short position, floating interest rate is fixed.




Interest rate swaps:
are contractual agreement to exchange or swap a series of cash flow.
? Fixed interest rate payment to floating interest rate payment
? U.S. dollar interest rate payment to Japanese yen interest payment = currency swap. //A single swap can be both of interest rate and currency swap.
? The swaps do not cover company specific spread, so the swap market does not differentiate the rate by participants.



Example: Oregon State University- Ecuadorian government.
1. Ecuadorian government wants to reduce its US dollar debts with preventing devaluation of its currency; sucre.
2. Oregon State University wants Ecuadorian sucre for study programs there.
3. Oregon State University purchase the Ecuadorian debts in US dollar.
4. It swaps interest earning in US dollar to in Ecuadorian sucre.
This program is applicable only to non- profit organization that will not sell sucre.


Example 2:
Three year pay Swiss francs and receive U.S. dollar currency swap.
? A will pay fixed Swiss franc interest rate of 2.01%, excluding the spread.
? B will pay fixed U.S. dollar interest rate of 5.56%, excluding the spread.
￢ Exchange rate is spot on the date of agreement establishes what the notional principal is.
￢ The notional principal itself is part of the swap agreement. *there is no need to include the principal in the agreement.
￢ The net present values of both payments are the same.
year 0 Payment
Principle Interest rate
SWAP year 1 year 2 year 3
A $10 million 5.56% F301,500 F301,500 F15,301,500
B F15 million 2.01% $556,000 $556,000 $10,556,000

o Throughout the swap's life, both party have to regularly track and value its position, mark-to-market the swap, on the basis of current exchange rates and interest rates, as financial accounting practices.
￢ If Swiss franc appreciates versus the dollar, A will record a loss, and B will record a gain, for accounting purposes.
￢ If interest rate in the francs rises, because A's payment is fixed, A will record a gain, for accounting purposes.


Unwinding the swap: If a partner wishes to terminate the agreement before it matures. *It is non-amortized loan that firms repay the entire principal at maturity.
￢ It requires the discounting of the remaining cash flow, at current exchange rate and current fixed interest rate for a remaining period.
￢ An offering firm will pay the net settlement as replacement costs to the other, to terminate the swap.


If it is terminated the end of first year, when spot exchange rate is F1.4650/$, and two-year fixed interest rate for the franc is 2.00% and for the dollar is 5.50%
￢ PV(F) = 301,500/(1.020) + 15,301,500/(1.020)2 = F15,002,912
￢ PV($) = 556,000/(1.055) + 10,011,078/(1.055)2 = $ 10,011,078
￢ F15,002,912 ÷ 1.4650 = $ 10,240,896
Settlement = $10,240,896 - $10,011,078 = $229,818


Three-way, Back-to-back, Cross-currency Swap:
? X borrows NZ$300 million at Kiwi Treasury +47 basis points, and it wants US$260 million.
? Y borrows NZ$150 million at Kiwi Treasury +44 basis points, and it wants US$130 million.
? Z borrows US$390 million at U.S. Treasury +48 basis points, and it wants NZ$450.















Counterparty Risk:
The second party to any financial contract may be unable to fulfil its obligations under the contract's specifications. In the event that swap counterparty does not make the payment as agreed, the firm legally holding the debt is still responsible for debt service. In the even, of such a failure, the euro payments would be stopped, by the right of offset (juxtaposed obligation), and the loss associated with the failed swap would mitigated.
￢ Most exchanges have the counterparty risks to all transactions because of its high confidences.
￢ Over-the-counter trades have less counterparty risks, because the counterparty is likely the largest or soundest financial institutions.

super power?

China has the veto power at the Security Council in UN, so it is already a kind of powerful country in the world. Since it had many domestic problems, China had not been playing a visible role as the permanent member. Recently, along with its economic development, China will start playing a responsible role in global society as one of influential actors, such as EU, US and Japan. With economic development of other part of the world, US will reduce its super power over other states, but none of EU, Japan or China will be 'the next super power'. The Super Power refers to considerable strong influences and dominances over other countries. China is unable to catch up and takeover the US's party, in military, economic and social aspects, China will not be the super power.
First of all, China cannot compete against US in military hard power parts. For example, the US alone has enough numbers of nuclear weapons to eliminate human beings from the earth, but China is not going to have this kind of military dominance over other countries. At least, EU and US will not allow China to build this kind of super power. Historically, US have technological advantages of armament, so China must invest more in development of technologies. However, Chinese military budget is about only $50 billion compared to US military budget of about $400 billion per year. China is unable to reduce its technological gap to US troops. Statistically, China has twice as many soldiers as US army for a less budget. While US is providing advanced trainings for each soldiers, China is able to provide very minimum trainings. Chinese army cannot compete against US troops.
In particular, as the super power, US can deploys navy submarine troops around the Taiwan Strain in Chinese front sea, but China will not be able to deploy its navy in the Gulf of Mexican in the US background in near future.
In economic term, Chinese GDP growth is remarkable, but its GDP of about $2.5 trillion is still a fifth of US's GDP of about $13 trillion. 10% growth of Chinese GDP is only $250 billion, on the other hand, 2% growth for US means $260 billion. As long as US keep its economic growth even in a small scale, China cannot reduce the difference. Moreover, because of its huge population, China cannot distribute its wealth for international affairs, even if its whole economic size comes over US economy. China has four times more people than US does, they would spend four times more funds to sustain education systems, social welfares and so on. As a developing nation, its people do not require social securities, but they will start demanding it, once China is recognised as a developed nation. It costs a lot for China to behave as the super power as well as satisfying its domestic people.
Also, Chinese economy is depending on international trading more comparing to US. For example, a half of Chinese GDP is export related, and Chinese domestic market is not big enough to consume those products. Then, US self-sufficiency ratio in agriculture is about 200%. That means they have enough food to survive without trading. On the other hand, Chinese agricultural self-sufficiency ratio is about 100%, and it is declining year by year, as their Asian tastes are changing to Western tastes. Chian cannot act as a dominant power because they depend on trades too much. They cannot even survive not only economically but also physically without sustaining positive relations with its trade partners.
Furthermore, US are birthplaces of the world famous Disney-Land, Coca-Cola, MacDonald, pop-music and so on. Those create US cultural influences over other countries. However, I can find many jeans 'made in China' but I do not see jeans 'designed as a Chinese brand' in the world. Also, both jeans and Mao-jacket were for unskilled labours, but only jeans has become popular fashion and the Mao-jacket is disappearing. China will not be a cultural super power in near future.

ポートフォリオ

　ポートフォリオ論に従って、株・社債・国債・外国為替・商品に分散投資をすると、市場規模の大きさから、商品市場だけでバブル現象が起きる。

　一月から、＄１０００をつけたと思った金は＄９００を割り込もうとしている。一方、＄１００越えに時間のかかっていた原油は＄１１０を超えたところで高止まりしている。


よ。

インフレと金利と為替と

インフレが起きれば、通貨価値の下落から、金利が上昇するのですか？

インフレが起きて、金利が上昇すれば、通貨価値が上がるのですか？

金利を上げれば、インフレを抑制出来て、通貨価値の下落を食い止められるのですか？

金利を下げれば、再投資が活性化されて、経済が好調化し、軽度のインフレとともに、国力としての通過値は上がるのですか？

さあ、どうなんでしょう？

政府・円売り＾ー＾

　為替市場は「十分」に大きいために、政府が介入しても影響が少ないと言われている。歴史的にはそれが正しい。

　が、市場の大きさは無限ではないので、介入の影響も皆無ではない。なら、政府は市場介入を試みるべきではないのか。

　特に、為替市場の動きが不自然に円安・高に急激に傾いた時は、市場介入に踏み切るべきだろう。

それとはまた別に、
　先月、＄1＝96円で円売り介入を行っておけば、今月、＄１＝102円で保有ドルの含み益が６％発生していた。もし介入額が3兆円だった場合、含み益は1800億円で、暫定税率廃止で不足した財源を補って余りある収入になっていたはずである。

　道路の建設計画も白紙化せずにすんだ。



　「国民のため」という発言の真意も、利己的なものだから、長期的な計画が立たない。


とか書いといてみる。

トヨタ自動車の将来

　じゃん、じゃん。トヨタの終末論です。

収益率・純利益・販売台数、トヨタ自動車は名実共に世界最大の自動車メーカーになろうとしている。

この後、2030年までにかけて、世界の新車・中古車・リースの市場規模は年間１．５億台に達するだろうし、その内、トヨタの新車販売台数は1500万台には達するんじゃないかと思う。純利益で3兆円以上？　単位株価で2万円以上ですか?

　気になるのはその後の話。2050年までにかけて、韓国はもとより中国・インドの自動車メーカーの成長を受け、トヨタはGM化するのでは?と思う。
　つまり、子会社の売却と母国での自動車生産の縮小を進める可能性があるということだ。

　現状のGMも米国生産・米国内販売は不振だか、中国生産・中国内販売は好調だ。それに示されるように、トヨタ自動車も日本での生産高縮小を余儀なくされるのではないかと思う。ポルシェは高級車のみに特化することで、最低限の母国生産高を維持している。トヨタも大衆車の生産基地として日本地位を支えることは難しいだろう。例え、企業としての生産台数が2000万台でも、日本国内生産は100万台（全体の５％）に縮小するだろう。
　工場は海外に移転され、国内に残るのは管理・デザイン部門ぐらいだろう。それも運が良ければ。シンガポール・香港・・・・等に出ていかなければの話だ。

　国内での企業規模を維持しようと思えば、企業内産業の高度化・多様化を図り、性産業からサービス業への転換を進めていかなければならない。が、トヨタのサービス業への転換はうまくいくのだろうか。2050年・＄１＝50円の世界で高い収益性を誇ろうと思えば、本格的に金融業へ進出していかなればならない。
　幸い、日本金融業の洗練度は世界34位で、発展の余地は多くある。2050年・トヨタグループの時価総額は30兆円を超えているのだろうか?

　現状でも、クライスラーは投資ファンドに買収されているし、GMも別の投資ファンドの手に落ちかけたことがある。高次の企業が低次の企業を所有するのは自明の理だ。


　国内で製造業が生き残れる希望は、日本政府の財政破綻だ。政府が破綻してしまえば、日本円は信用を失い、超円安になる。国内でハイパーインフレーションが起こるだろうことは困るが、円安は輸出に有利だ・・・・・・
　でも、現状打破の正攻法は「産業の高度化」だろうね。

CitiBank of America

　なんちゃって。

　米国内での収益を基盤に、積極的に世界進出を果たしてきたシティバンクがサブ・プライム問題で潰れかかっている。昔は「成功」の代名詞だったのにね。

　逆に、米国内市場の完全攻略のみに力を入れたバンク・オブ・アメリカは、アメリカ市場・住宅ローンの状態をよく把握していたおかげか、サブ・プライム問題で引っ掛かっていない。昔は「引きこもり」って言われていたのにね。

　時代も変われば変わるものだよ。と言う分で、題名が示唆しているのは、バンカメがシティバンクを買収するんじゃないか。って意見。僕ならやる（笑）。



　あと気になるのはHSBCの経営状態なんだよね・・・・一般顧客を相手にしていないあの銀行の動きはよく分からない。　　って、私がバカなだけですか?

本田技研工業のマーケティング技術

　何でも、本田技研工業の株価純資産倍率が１倍割れしたそうで。もう回復したそうだけど。　とりあえず、それだけホンダの将来性への期待が薄いということ言うことですかね。

　技術力は高いんだけどね、技術者中心主義がたたって、マーケティングが下手。ホームページだって、本田のバイクそのもののが持っている良さに比べて、面白くないし。

　社長の技術者出身主義は良いんだけど、自分のマーケティング力の無さを認めて、販売戦略を思い切って外部委託するぐらいの根性がある…ってか、それぐらい危機感がある人がいれば良いのに。
　「いいモノほど良く売れる」って世の中そんなに甘くないんだよ。


　数年前に、被験者に目隠しをして「コカ・コーラ」と「ペプシ・コーラ」を飲み比べてもらうテストをした時に、９０％以上の人が「ペプシ・コーラ」を選んだらしいんだよね。でも、現実社会での売り上げは「コカ・コーラ」の方がはるかに上回っているですね。。。。興味深い話ですね。


　


　資金さえ集められれば、乗っ取りをかけて、マーケティング戦術を徹底的に叩き直せるんだけどね。