China Dailyより： 来年の不動産市場がどうなるか、中国不動産学会？がレポートを出したそうです。
2004年頃から中国政府は不動産の価格上昇を規制しようとして様々な規制をかけていました。今年後半になってから薬が効きすぎたと考えたのか、その規制のうち、短期不動産取引税の条件付免除、不動産ローン付けに対する頭金比率の再引き下げ等ですが、来年も不動産取引にかかるさまざまな規制をはずしていくだろうという事の様です。
紹介されている統計では。今年１０月までの不動産投資の成長率が24.6%で、１１月までになると22.4%と成長率が鈍化したとありますが、正確なデータが無いのですけど僅か１１月の１ヶ月で急激に成長が止まったということなのでしょう。
この記事には記載されていないですけど、中国政府の方針としては実需向けの不動産市場は促進させるが、投機は規制するというのが基本ラインでした。でも来年はどこまで規制をはずすかですね。
日本人を含む外国人は、現在は中国国内居住者が自己使用向けに１件の住宅を購入する以外には、中国国内に外商法人を設立し、投資金額の半額以上をキャッシュで出資する必要があります。このため、中国の不動産投資は非常に面倒で、規制が起きる前に同じく外資（香港等か今日系含む）が保有するオフショア法人の売買という形で不動産取引が行われていました。
⇒この辺中国企業のM&Aのスキームとおんなじです。
上海に関しては、マンションの価格を見る限りまだまだ落ちきったとはいえないのですが、余力のある企業や投資家の方には来年以降の中国不動産は投資対象として再度検討できるかもしれませんね。
それにしても、景気の悪い時は買い物のチャンスなんですが、得てしてお金ないんですよね。どうしても好景気の時に消費しちゃうのが凡人なんでしょうけど。。。サラリーマンだった時を含め、他人には偉そうにこういう趣旨の事を発言するんですが、いざわが身を振り返れば。。。。
投資のタイミングが早すぎたのか、円高のおかげで人民元せっせと稼いでも円ベースでは投資元本目減りした１年（正確には半年）でした。。テスト販売期間中の8-9月の利益率が20%..ホクホク感とやっていけるとの判断から全財産突っ込んで、拡大しだしたのですが、あっという間に人民元が円に対して20%下落してしまった。。。売れども売れども利益が出ない。。急に貧乏になった感じの年でした。
Mixed forecast for China's real estate in 2009
By Bi Xiaoning (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-12-30 18:34
Comments(0) PrintMail
The China Real Estate Index Academy released a report on Dec 30 which forecasted three trends for the real estate market in 2009:
Turnover will rebound when prices are reasonable
The transaction volume in the real estate market will rebound in 2009 as prices are adjusted to more reasonable levels.
Special Coverage:
Housing in China
Related readings:
China eyes more property prop up
Tax cut to attract more homebuyers
Property sales rebound in Beijing and Shanghai
A proper house for everyone is the goal
According to the report, many residents are willing to buy self-use houses but are blocked by high house prices. It is suggested that developers should adjust prices and enhance promotions, since real estate markets are very sensitive to price changes.
Furthermore, favorable polices also prop up the housing market. On Oct 22, 2008, the central bank announced that the down payment threshold would be lowered from 30 percent to 20 percent. It also allowed financial institutions to offer favorable policies to support those making their first home purchase for self use and those buying self-use housing for improving living conditions. In addition, the loan interest rate has been cut five times since September.
Looking ahead, the report said that second-home buyers will play an important role in the housing market of 2009, since more favorable policies can be expected to reduce the cost of transactions.
Investment will slow but financing moves can boom
Many industry flagships have confidence in the long-term development of the real estate market but they are not optimistic in the short run and will cut investment plans accordingly.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate investment growth slowed to 22.7 percent in the January-November period of 2008, down from 24.6 percent in the first 10 months.
Investment growth will slow down further in 2009 but can remain positive.
With policy props, the corporate bond market as well as corporate loans will boom in 2009, since their returns are higher than that of deposits and the risks are limited. The capital-intensive real estate industry should make good use of this opportunity to raise funds through issuing bonds.
However, some small and medium-sized enterprises will continue to find it difficult to raise funds from the equity market and financial institutions. Therefore, following the jungle law, the real estate industry will be further integrated in 2009.
Flexible policies to prop up market in 2009
The government will make more efforts to "rescue the market," as the property sector is one of the biggest drivers of China's domestic consumption, contributing one-tenth of the gross domestic product.
The measures imposed in 2009 will be more flexible and prudent, including reducing taxes and fees at the transaction stage, lowering loan interest rate and offering tax rebates for home buyers.
The government will try to stabilize the housing price and rescue the market if prices dive, including using fiscal revenue to buy low-cost houses.
2004年頃から中国政府は不動産の価格上昇を規制しようとして様々な規制をかけていました。今年後半になってから薬が効きすぎたと考えたのか、その規制のうち、短期不動産取引税の条件付免除、不動産ローン付けに対する頭金比率の再引き下げ等ですが、来年も不動産取引にかかるさまざまな規制をはずしていくだろうという事の様です。
紹介されている統計では。今年１０月までの不動産投資の成長率が24.6%で、１１月までになると22.4%と成長率が鈍化したとありますが、正確なデータが無いのですけど僅か１１月の１ヶ月で急激に成長が止まったということなのでしょう。
この記事には記載されていないですけど、中国政府の方針としては実需向けの不動産市場は促進させるが、投機は規制するというのが基本ラインでした。でも来年はどこまで規制をはずすかですね。
日本人を含む外国人は、現在は中国国内居住者が自己使用向けに１件の住宅を購入する以外には、中国国内に外商法人を設立し、投資金額の半額以上をキャッシュで出資する必要があります。このため、中国の不動産投資は非常に面倒で、規制が起きる前に同じく外資（香港等か今日系含む）が保有するオフショア法人の売買という形で不動産取引が行われていました。
⇒この辺中国企業のM&Aのスキームとおんなじです。
上海に関しては、マンションの価格を見る限りまだまだ落ちきったとはいえないのですが、余力のある企業や投資家の方には来年以降の中国不動産は投資対象として再度検討できるかもしれませんね。
それにしても、景気の悪い時は買い物のチャンスなんですが、得てしてお金ないんですよね。どうしても好景気の時に消費しちゃうのが凡人なんでしょうけど。。。サラリーマンだった時を含め、他人には偉そうにこういう趣旨の事を発言するんですが、いざわが身を振り返れば。。。。
投資のタイミングが早すぎたのか、円高のおかげで人民元せっせと稼いでも円ベースでは投資元本目減りした１年（正確には半年）でした。。テスト販売期間中の8-9月の利益率が20%..ホクホク感とやっていけるとの判断から全財産突っ込んで、拡大しだしたのですが、あっという間に人民元が円に対して20%下落してしまった。。。売れども売れども利益が出ない。。急に貧乏になった感じの年でした。
Mixed forecast for China's real estate in 2009
By Bi Xiaoning (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-12-30 18:34
Comments(0) PrintMail
The China Real Estate Index Academy released a report on Dec 30 which forecasted three trends for the real estate market in 2009:
Turnover will rebound when prices are reasonable
The transaction volume in the real estate market will rebound in 2009 as prices are adjusted to more reasonable levels.
Special Coverage:
Housing in China
Related readings:
China eyes more property prop up
Tax cut to attract more homebuyers
Property sales rebound in Beijing and Shanghai
A proper house for everyone is the goal
According to the report, many residents are willing to buy self-use houses but are blocked by high house prices. It is suggested that developers should adjust prices and enhance promotions, since real estate markets are very sensitive to price changes.
Furthermore, favorable polices also prop up the housing market. On Oct 22, 2008, the central bank announced that the down payment threshold would be lowered from 30 percent to 20 percent. It also allowed financial institutions to offer favorable policies to support those making their first home purchase for self use and those buying self-use housing for improving living conditions. In addition, the loan interest rate has been cut five times since September.
Looking ahead, the report said that second-home buyers will play an important role in the housing market of 2009, since more favorable policies can be expected to reduce the cost of transactions.
Investment will slow but financing moves can boom
Many industry flagships have confidence in the long-term development of the real estate market but they are not optimistic in the short run and will cut investment plans accordingly.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate investment growth slowed to 22.7 percent in the January-November period of 2008, down from 24.6 percent in the first 10 months.
Investment growth will slow down further in 2009 but can remain positive.
With policy props, the corporate bond market as well as corporate loans will boom in 2009, since their returns are higher than that of deposits and the risks are limited. The capital-intensive real estate industry should make good use of this opportunity to raise funds through issuing bonds.
However, some small and medium-sized enterprises will continue to find it difficult to raise funds from the equity market and financial institutions. Therefore, following the jungle law, the real estate industry will be further integrated in 2009.
Flexible policies to prop up market in 2009
The government will make more efforts to "rescue the market," as the property sector is one of the biggest drivers of China's domestic consumption, contributing one-tenth of the gross domestic product.
The measures imposed in 2009 will be more flexible and prudent, including reducing taxes and fees at the transaction stage, lowering loan interest rate and offering tax rebates for home buyers.
The government will try to stabilize the housing price and rescue the market if prices dive, including using fiscal revenue to buy low-cost houses.
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