１１月の輸出入が前年比で大幅に下がったとの報道です。７年ぶりだそうですね。
10月は対前年19%増USD 128Bだったのが、11月が対前年8%減のUSD100Bですので昨年の10-11月はほぼ同じレベルの金額だった。今年の11月は前月比では30%近く下落したという事になりますので、凄まじい急落といえるのでしょう。
原因は欧米経済の不振なんですが、国内？エコノミストの予想を大きく下回る下落のようです。輸出にからむ増値税の戻しの増加や、元ドルの為替の調整を政府が発表、実施していますが、問題はもはやそのレベルではないとのコメントがでています。
中央政府の輸出の対前年比目標20%に対して、15%の達成にとどまりそうとの事。年度前半は好調でしたから、本当に急激に落ちてきており、2009年はがたがたになる恐れを感じます。大規模な公共投資の政策を発表していますが、輸出主導経済が中国の強みであるだけに、輸出が2007年比で10%下落⇒2008年比では30%下落という基調になってしまうなら、GDP自体が今目標としている7-8%成長どころか、マイナスになる可能性が大きくなってきたのではないでしょうか。
やばいですね。。。日本製品を輸出販売している我々自体が、急激な円高に利益を圧縮されて困っているのですが、今後人民元の下落が避けられず、かつ国内の雇用問題が発生すると市場もシュリンクしてしまうので、どうにもならなくなる懸念を抱くようになりました。毎年10%近い昇給が当たり前だったこの国も、来年はありえないでしょうしね。。
First export drop in 7 years reported Natalie Chiu and Reuters in Beijing
Dec 07, 2008
The value of mainland exports fell year on year in November - the first monthly drop in more than seven years - an influential mainland newspaper has reported.
Citing an unnamed "source close to the statistics", the Guangzhou-based 21st Century Business Herald said customs authorities estimated exports in November were worth "over" US$100 billion and imports more than US$70 billion, and that both figures were down on those a year earlier. In November last year, exports were worth US$108 billion.
The Herald said the monthly fall in exports was the first since June 2001. It said top officials were alarmed by the sudden drop.
Customs authorities were now giving central policymakers estimates of trade flows daily instead of every 10 days, it said.
In October, the mainland exported goods worth US$128 billion, a rise of 19.2 per cent on the same month last year. Imports rose 15.6 per cent compared with a year earlier.
The reported numbers suggest the global economic chill has hit exporters faster and harder than many economists and officials expected.
The newspaper cautioned that the numbers it reported were "the product of a partial collation and may have omissions". China Customs will issue official figures midweek.
Still, the Herald quoted the source as saying: "[We] estimated the growth rate would be much lower [than in October], but this negative growth was beyond our expectations."
Analysts had expected China's exports to be affected by the slowdown in the economies of its major trading partners, the United States and the European Union, but not for them to fall at this pace.
Beijing has been scrambling to help exporters. On November 1 it increased export tax rebates on a quarter of taxable goods. And there is speculation the central bank will slow the pace of the yuan's rise against the US dollar, or even reverse it.
"The issue now is not whether to raise export tax rebates further or allow the yuan to depreciate further, it's the shrinking demand that plays a determining role in global exports," said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank. "Without any overseas orders, how can exporters benefit from the tax rebates?"
Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with HSBC (SEHK: 0005, announcements, news) , predicted exports would shrink for at least the next couple of months.
"Our important export markets have already slowed or even fallen into recession. Much deeper falls in exports will result."
Zhang Yongjun, an economics researcher with top think-tank the State Information Centre, forecast exports would miss Beijing's target of 20 per cent growth this year.
Zhou Shijian, a director of the China World Trade Organisation Research Society, told the Herald his forecast for export growth this year was below 15 per cent.
Mainland economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter, and industrial production slumped to a seven-year low in October.
10月は対前年19%増USD 128Bだったのが、11月が対前年8%減のUSD100Bですので昨年の10-11月はほぼ同じレベルの金額だった。今年の11月は前月比では30%近く下落したという事になりますので、凄まじい急落といえるのでしょう。
原因は欧米経済の不振なんですが、国内？エコノミストの予想を大きく下回る下落のようです。輸出にからむ増値税の戻しの増加や、元ドルの為替の調整を政府が発表、実施していますが、問題はもはやそのレベルではないとのコメントがでています。
中央政府の輸出の対前年比目標20%に対して、15%の達成にとどまりそうとの事。年度前半は好調でしたから、本当に急激に落ちてきており、2009年はがたがたになる恐れを感じます。大規模な公共投資の政策を発表していますが、輸出主導経済が中国の強みであるだけに、輸出が2007年比で10%下落⇒2008年比では30%下落という基調になってしまうなら、GDP自体が今目標としている7-8%成長どころか、マイナスになる可能性が大きくなってきたのではないでしょうか。
やばいですね。。。日本製品を輸出販売している我々自体が、急激な円高に利益を圧縮されて困っているのですが、今後人民元の下落が避けられず、かつ国内の雇用問題が発生すると市場もシュリンクしてしまうので、どうにもならなくなる懸念を抱くようになりました。毎年10%近い昇給が当たり前だったこの国も、来年はありえないでしょうしね。。
First export drop in 7 years reported Natalie Chiu and Reuters in Beijing
Dec 07, 2008
The value of mainland exports fell year on year in November - the first monthly drop in more than seven years - an influential mainland newspaper has reported.
Citing an unnamed "source close to the statistics", the Guangzhou-based 21st Century Business Herald said customs authorities estimated exports in November were worth "over" US$100 billion and imports more than US$70 billion, and that both figures were down on those a year earlier. In November last year, exports were worth US$108 billion.
The Herald said the monthly fall in exports was the first since June 2001. It said top officials were alarmed by the sudden drop.
Customs authorities were now giving central policymakers estimates of trade flows daily instead of every 10 days, it said.
In October, the mainland exported goods worth US$128 billion, a rise of 19.2 per cent on the same month last year. Imports rose 15.6 per cent compared with a year earlier.
The reported numbers suggest the global economic chill has hit exporters faster and harder than many economists and officials expected.
The newspaper cautioned that the numbers it reported were "the product of a partial collation and may have omissions". China Customs will issue official figures midweek.
Still, the Herald quoted the source as saying: "[We] estimated the growth rate would be much lower [than in October], but this negative growth was beyond our expectations."
Analysts had expected China's exports to be affected by the slowdown in the economies of its major trading partners, the United States and the European Union, but not for them to fall at this pace.
Beijing has been scrambling to help exporters. On November 1 it increased export tax rebates on a quarter of taxable goods. And there is speculation the central bank will slow the pace of the yuan's rise against the US dollar, or even reverse it.
"The issue now is not whether to raise export tax rebates further or allow the yuan to depreciate further, it's the shrinking demand that plays a determining role in global exports," said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank. "Without any overseas orders, how can exporters benefit from the tax rebates?"
Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with HSBC (SEHK: 0005, announcements, news) , predicted exports would shrink for at least the next couple of months.
"Our important export markets have already slowed or even fallen into recession. Much deeper falls in exports will result."
Zhang Yongjun, an economics researcher with top think-tank the State Information Centre, forecast exports would miss Beijing's target of 20 per cent growth this year.
Zhou Shijian, a director of the China World Trade Organisation Research Society, told the Herald his forecast for export growth this year was below 15 per cent.
Mainland economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter, and industrial production slumped to a seven-year low in October.
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