2014年03月27日19:00
カテゴリ本
資本過剰が格差を拡大する
ど素人にはちょっと難しいね。
Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Thomas Piketty
かなり話題になっている本らしい。紹介されているリンクをみると、
経験則からすると、
戦争や大恐慌の後に、所得格差が縮小する傾向があるが、
Q&A: Thomas Piketty on the Wealth Divide
By EDUARDO PORTER MARCH 11, 2014, 6:21 PM
Q Why are you confident that the economy will grow slower than returns on capital?
A.
Over the 1700-2012 period, world output has grown at 1.6 percent per year on average, including 0.8 percent due to population growth and 0.8 percent due to per capita output growth. This may seem small, but in actual fact this was sufficient to multiply the world population by more than 10 ― from 600 million to seven billion inhabitants. According to U.N. population forecasts, this seems unlikely to happen again in the coming decades and centuries. Indeed population has already started to stabilize or even decline in a number of European and Asian countries. Productivity growth can certainly continue forever, assuming we invent clean energy. But in any case it will probably not be faster than 1 to 1.5 percent. It is only in exceptional periods, e.g. when countries are catching up with other countries, that productivity growth rates reach very high levels ― say 4 to 5 percent or even higher.
In contrast, rates of return on capital can be 4 to 5 percent over centuries, or even higher for risky assets and high wealth portfolios. Contrarily to what Karl Marx and other believed, there is no natural reason why rates of return should fall in the long run. According to Forbes’s global billionaires list, very top wealth holders have risen at 6 to 7 percent per year over the 1987-2013 period, i.e. more than three times faster than per capita wealth and income at the world level. Wealth concentration will probably stabilize at some point, but this can happen at a very high level.
経済は、
資本収益率よりもゆっくりにしか成長しないのほうが常態で、
TRICKLE-UPECONOMICS
Thomas Piketty's new book demonstrates why inequality is inevitable under current policies
March 23, 2014 8:45AM ET
by David Cay Johnston
When an economy grows at 1 percent annually but investment returns are 5 percent, the already wealthy need to reinvest only a fifth of their gains for their fortunes to grow at the same rate as the overall economy. The rest can be spent on a sumptuous lifestyle.
Since by definition the very rich do not need to consume 80 percent of their incomes ― the portion by which investment returns exceed the growth of the economy in Piketty’s model ― they can reinvest most of their annual gains in the market. Over time this accumulating capital will snowball.
資本収益率が、経済成長率よりもの高いと、格差は拡大し、富が資本家のごく一部に集中してしまう、と。
処方箋として、
Capitalism vs. Democracy
JAN. 28, 2014
The only way to halt this process, he argues, is to impose a global progressive tax on wealth – global in order to prevent (among other things) the transfer of assets to countries without such levies.
世界規模の累進課税を提唱している。世界規模にしないと、課税が少ない国へ逃げてる人がでてくるからである。
もっとも、
FORCES OF DIVERGENCE
BY JOHN CASSIDY
Economists can debate whether such a wealth tax would reduce incentives to invest and innovate, or whether it would be punitive enough to make a real dent in inequality. A more immediate problem is that it isn’t going to happen: the nations of the world can’t agree on taxing harmful carbon emissions, let alone taxing the capital of their richest and most powerful citizens.
現実問題として、炭素放出についても世界規模で決められないのに、富豪で、権力をもった市民に大きな課税などできるわけがない、という批判もある。
Historically, the main equalizing force ― both between and within countries ― has been the diffusion of knowledge and skills. However, this virtuous process cannot work properly without inclusive educational institutions and continuous investment in skills. This is a major challenge for all countries in the century underway.
教育や技能などを身につければ、格差は縮小する方向にむかうが、しかし、最近のニュースなどでは、
そもそも、
親の年収多いほど高い学力 文科省、初の全国調査
岡雄一郎2014年3月28日17時53分
ともいわれる。
Wealth was so concentrated in 1835 France that “those who could somehow lay hands on inherited wealth were able to live far better than those obligated to make their way by study and work.”
また、かりに貧乏人で勉強ができても、金持の娘のほうがのうのうとした生活をしている、ということは昔もいまもよくある話。
ーーーー輪転機回して金を刷っても、金が腐って、世間にまわらず、経済活動が活発化しない場合があると同様、金持のふところに溜め込んでおいても、資本が貧乏人の役に立つわけでもなく、累進課税をして、再分配していくのは必要なことなのだろう、というのが、貧乏な素人の考えである。
