1159『自然と人間の歴史・世界篇』「アメリカの雇用計画」(2021.3発表)と「アメリカ家族計画」(2021.4発表)
2021年3月31日には、新型コロナウイルス感染を克服し、経済を成長軌道へ乗せるべく、「アメリカの雇用計画」が、バイデン政権により発表された。
これについては、共和党が反対しており、議会で論戦が始まっている。しかも、民主党の中にも反対意見があり、また、同党内の左派は環境への投資が少ないなどの批判があるほか、民間からも様々な反応が寄せられている。次に紹介するのは、民間調査機関からのものである。
「This plan of expanding expenditure will undoubtedly further complicate the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and bring about more uncertainties to the future U.S. government debt problem. Regarding the source of funding for the new infrastructure plan, Biden hopes to fund the American Jobs Plan by increasing corporate taxes.
He also announced a corporate tax reform plan, proposing to increase the federal corporate income tax rate from the current 21% to 28%, and raise the minimum tax rate for U.S. companies’ overseas profits from 10.5% to 21% in order to restrict U.S. companies’ from using overseas tax avoidance methods and to encourage them to expand investments in the United States. The Biden administration stated that this tax increase plan will add approximately USD 2 trillion in revenue to the U.S. treasury within 15 years to make up for the expansion of expenditures.
以上は概要説明で、問題点の指摘はこれからである。
「However, some analysts believe that this plan will actually still bring about a USD 500 billion fiscal deficit. At the same time, many market institutions estimate that under the opposition of the Republican Party and the corporate world, this tax increase plan may have to make compromise and will be greatly discounted in the future.
Therefore, once this plan is really implemented, it would mean that the debt burden of the U.S. government will be further aggravated, which will also have a realistic and long-term impact on the U.S. Treasury bond market, further impeding the independence of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Of course, under the Biden-Harris administration’s continuous fiscal stimulus plan, there is very little disagreement regarding the short-term optimistic prospects of economic recovery.」
この「there is very little disagreement regarding the short-term optimistic prospects of economic recovery.」という下りでもって、このプランでは現下の経済を回復させるには短期的かつ楽観的過ぎて役に立たないというのである。続いて、こうある。
「Federal Reserve officials have recently repeatedly emphasized that they will push inflation levels back to how it was before the pandemic as soon as possible, so as to reach the policy target of 2%. In such a case, with the enhancement of the fiscal stimulus, the recovery of the U.S. economy will be faster when the pandemic is brought under control.
Currently, the yield of U.S. long-term Treasury bonds has risen significantly in the first quarter, which means that the market has gradually adapted to the expectation of rising inflation in the short and medium term.
The market’s divergence lies in whether the rate of inflation rises moderately in the case of rapid demand growth.
Many institutions worry that the rapid rise in demand will cause inflation to far exceed the Fed’s policy goals and cause changes in the Fed’s policy. The Fed’s chair Jerome Powell’s previous talk about reducing the scale of QE has exacerbated the concern.」
と、色々と重ね合わせて述べられているのが、財政膨張から来るインフレ懸念であって、金融政策のゴールとも整合しないと結論づけている。
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