おなじみのRoubini教授の予想によると、
・米国の不況は2年フルで続き、計５％縮小
・2009年の米GDPは3.4%減
・失業率は2010年初期に約9％でピーク
・住宅価格は下がり過ぎ（overshoot)となり、2010年半ばでピークから44%減
・政策は限定的かつ遅れた効果しか持たず、2009年より2010年のほうがより感じられるだろう
コンセンサスは、オバマ大統領の政策効果で2009年後半からの景気回復を見込んでいる様であるが、過度の政策期待と失望というこれまでのパターンを繰り返し、これまで通りRoubini教授の見立てが当たるのか。
○Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/roubini-two-year-recession.html
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. "The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009," he said. 
