個人の個人所得は政府の景気刺激策の影響で先月比+1.4％の大幅増となったが、想定通り貯蓄率が引き続き急上昇（5.6→6.9％）し、個人消費の伸びを抑制した（先月比+0.3％）（※１）。失業率の高かった70～80年代の貯蓄率は8～12％のレンジであり、直近の超低貯蓄率を支えていたホームエクイティが減少を続けている状況では、トレンドとしては更に上昇し、個人消費を抑制する可能性が高い状況であろう（直近は、政府刺激策の減少に伴い貯蓄率が一時的に落ちることも想定されるが）。
なお、４、５月のトレンドだと２Qの個人消費は0.7%減が見込まれるという。
※２はFreddie Macの戸建向けローンの延滞率と失業率のトレンドが一致しているグラフ。想定以上の失業率＝想定以上のローンの焦げ付き、という自明の結論。あわせて、クレジットカードの損失も記録的水準とのこと（※３）。
また直近の週間失業保険申請数は想定に反して上昇し、受給総数も上昇（※４）。期待するような短期的雇用状況の改善がいつ現れるのか。
国際決済銀行（Bank of International Settlements or BIS）は、不良債権はまだ脅威であり続けている、としている（※５）。
ストレステストの不十分さと向き合う真実の時（Moment of truth）はいつになるのであろうか。
※１Personal Income and Outlays Boosted by Stimulus
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/personal-income-and-outlays-boosted-by.html
Click on graph for large image.
This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month centered average for smoothing) through the April Personal Income report. The saving rate was 6.9% in April. (6.3% with average)
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PCE declined sharply in Q3 and Q4 2008, and rebounded slightly in Q1 2009.
Although PCE increased in May (compared to April), Q2 2009 is off to a somewhat weak start, with PCE in both April and May slightly below the levels of Q1. Although it is possible that PCE will pick up in June, it seems likely that PCE will be flat to slightly negative in Q2 (although not the cliff diving of the 2nd half of 2008). The two-month estimate suggests a real PCE decline of 0.7% in Q2 2009.
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※２Freddie Mac Delinquencies and Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/freddie-mac-delinquencies-and.html
Click on graph for large image.
This graph shows the Freddie Mac single family delinquency rate and the unemployment rate since 2005.
Note that the unemployment rate y-axis starts at 4% to match up the curves.
※３ Report: Record Credit Card Charge-offs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/report-record-credit-card-charge-offs.html
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The chargeoff rate index -- which measures credit card loans the banks do not expect to be repaid -- rose to 10.62 percent in May from 9.97 percent in April.
"We expect the chargeoff rate index to continue to rise in the coming months but at a slower pace, as it peaks at around 12 percent in the second quarter of 2010," Moody's senior vice president William Black said in a statement.Another month, another record.
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As a reminder, the credit card indicative loss rates for the "more adverse" stress test scenario were 18% to 20% over two years. That might have been a little optimistic. The baseline scenario was 12% to 17% over two years - way too low.
※４ Initial Unemployment Claims Increase
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In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 627,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 612,000. The 4-week moving average was 617,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 616,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 6,738,000, an increase of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,709,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,759,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,763,000.
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Click on graph for larger image in new window.
※５ BIS: Toxic Assets Still a Threat
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/bis-toxic-assets-still-threat.html
