大恐慌！？その165 米10月中古住宅販売高前月比1.2%減。在庫は10.8ヶ月！

10月の米中古住宅販売高は前月比1.2％減の497万戸。在庫は10.8ヶ月分まで積みあがっており、事態は悪化の一途を辿っている。

 

○10月中古住宅販売高：497万戸 http://www.daikiusa.com/indicators/past/existinghome_sales.html

NAR（全米不動産業者協会）発表の10月中古住宅販売高は、前月比1.2%減の497万戸となった。市場予測は500万戸。 販売価格の中央値は、前年同月比5.1%低下の20万7,800ドル。 一戸建ては前月比変らずの437万戸、集合住宅は同9.1%減の60万戸。 マーケットでは、住宅市場の縮小は続いていると評価されている。中古住宅販売高が500万件を割り込んだのは,統計の算出が開始された1999年以来で初めてのことである。在庫水準が依然として高い事を考慮すると、今後も住宅市場の縮小傾向は続く可能性が高い。 ○More on October Existing Home Sales http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/more-on-october-existing-home-sales.html To put the NAR numbers into perspective, here are the year-end sales, inventory and months of supply numbers, since 1969. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the actual annual sales, year end inventory and months of supply, since 1982 (sales since 1969). For 2007, the October inventory and Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) for sales were used. The current inventory of 4.453 million is just below the all time record set in July and well above the record year end inventory for any other year. The "months of supply" metric is 10.8 months. The "months of supply" is now above the level of the previous housing slump in the early '90s, and closing in on the worst levels of the housing bust in the early '80s (inventory was 11.5 months at the end of 1982). Both the numerator and the denominator are moving in the wrong direction. Not only is inventory at record levels, but sales - though falling - are still somewhat above the normal range as a percent of owner occupied units. For the second graph, sales and inventory are normalized by the number of owner occupied units. This shows the annual variability in the turnover of existing homes, with a median of 6% of owner occupied units selling per year. Currently 6% of owner occupied units would be about 4.6 million existing home sales per year. This indicates that the turnover of existing homes - October sales were at a 4.97 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) - is still above the historical median.

大恐慌！？その164 米住宅価格指数前年比名目4.5%減（実質約8%減！）

このブログでも過去何度も紹介している「Ｓ＆Ｐケース・シラー住宅価格指数（S&P Case-Shiller National home price index ）」で、7―9月期は名目4.5%下落と、1987年に同指数の算出を開始して以来最大の下落率はとなった（※１）。

実質ベースでは8%減となる（※２の２つめのグラプ）。名目ベースの下落とインフレによる実質ベースの目減りを含め、今後数年にわたって下落し続けるものと想定される。

興味深いのは※３で、更なる価格下落により、ホームエクイティがネガティブとなる人が急増するポイントに差し掛かりつつあることだ。いよいよ、個人消費への負の資産ん効果が現実のものとなろうとしている。 

 

※１　米住宅価格指数、最大の4.5％下落・７―９月 http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20071128AT2M2800Z28112007.html 　【ニューヨーク＝山下茂行】米格付け会社スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ（Ｓ＆Ｐ）は27日、7―9月の全米の住宅価格が前年同期比で4.5％減少したと発表した。下落率は1987年に同指数の算出を開始して以来の大きさとなった。 　発表したのはＳ＆Ｐが米エール大学のロバート・シラー教授らと開発した「Ｓ＆Ｐケース・シラー住宅価格指数」で、全米の一戸建て住宅の販売価格を示し、四半期ごとに算出している。4―6月期に3.2％下落と最大の下げを記録していたが、7―9月期の下げ幅はさらに拡大した。前期比の下落率も1.7％と指数の算出開始以来で最大だった。 　同指数は2005年4―6月から上昇率が鈍化に転じ、今年1―3月以降はマイナスが続いている。毎月発表している全米20都市と10都市の価格指数はそれぞれ前年同期比で0.9％下落した。(13:24)

 

※２　House Prices: Real vs. Nominal

The S&P Case-Shiller National home price index was released this morning. (See note at bottom).

The reported Case-Shiller numbers are nominal; not adjusted for inflation. Most people think in nominal terms, but it's also important to look at real house prices.

Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the nominal Case-Shiller index. The index peaked in Q2 2006, and nominal prices have declined about 5% from the peak.

The second graphs shows real prices according to the Case-Shiller index (adjusted using CPI less Shelter). Real Prices peaked in Q1 2006, and are off about 8% from the peak.

.........

This could happen with falling nominal prices, or from several years of inflation, or a combination of both. Say nominal prices fall 15% over the next three years, with a 2% per year inflation rate, then real prices would fall to about 130 on the Case-Shiller index.

This suggests to me that price declines have just started, and that the process will last several years. It's important to remember that different areas will see different percentage price declines - the bubble areas will see the largest declines - and the time frames for each location will be different.

※３　Goldman Sachs on Housing

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/goldman-sachs-on-housing.html

Click on graph for larger image.

大恐慌！？その163 中国は米国不況の影響を最も受ける国か

これまでのところ、中国経済は米景気減速の目だった影響を受けておらず、中国経済は米国経済から最も"decouple"(分離）されていると考えられている。中国経済の最近の発展には米国を中心とした世界経済の好景気が大きな影響を与え、世界の工場として中国の経済発展に寄与してきた、と言うのが元々の理解であったと思うが、米国経済の減速の中で、中国経済が堅調さを保つ中、世界経済についての強気派の最近の最も強い論拠がこの"decouple"論である（米国が駄目でも、中国を始めとした新興国経済が世界成長を支える）。

ただ、この"decouple"論にも懸念が生じている。ニューヨーク大学Roubini教授は、これまで米国の経済不況が住宅に集中していたために中国経済に大きな影響を与えなかったが、一度個人消費に不況が及んだら、米国不況の影響を受ける最大の餌食は中国だろう（"recouple")と言う。そして、中国の減速により、影響を受けるのは東アジアの国（日本、韓国等）であるとの見方を示している。

現にPorts of LA and Long Beachの対前年比のグラプを以下につけているが、中国製品の米国への輸出は明らかな減速を示しており、2001年以来の０水準に落ちることが懸念される。

 

○Roubini on Recoupling

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/roubini-on-recoupling.html

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/228535

Nouriel Roubini writes: Recoupling rather than Decoupling: the Forthcoming Contagion to China, East Asia and Emerging Markets

Paradoxically China is the one country that has, so far, decouple the most – both in real and financial terms from the U.S. but it will also be the first and most serious victim of a U.S. led recession. The decoupling of China is clear as its growth rate has not decelerated, in spite of the U.S. slowdown, and its financial markets have – so far – blissfully avoided (thanks in part to its financial system partially isolated via capital controls from the global one) the turmoil and volatility that hit the US and Europe since the summer. But the reason for the Chinese growth decoupling is that, until recently the US slowdown was still modest (short of the coming hard landing) and it was not concentrated in private consumption but rather housing: China is mostly exporting low-priced consumer goods to the U.S. and the recoupling of China will occur soon once the US consumer recession is in full swing. Thus, the biggest victim of a US consumer led recession will be the country – China - that, so far, has decoupled the most from the US.
...
No wonder that Chinese officials have started to express serious concerns about the current sharp slowdown in Chinese exports to the US, from an annualized growth rate of over 20% in Q1 to a rate of 12.4% in Q3 of this year ("If demand in the US drops further, Chinese exporters will be devastated by a rapid and continuous fall in orders," a Chinese official report said).

...

And once there is a sharp growth slowdown in China the next victims of this recoupling will be East Asia and commodity exporters. 

...

 

 

............................

The (second) graph shows the Year-over-year change in Chinese exports to the U.S. Note: this graph uses a 3 month centered average to calculate the YoY change.

Since the last data point (trade data) is for September, and I'm using a 3 month centered average, the last plotted point is for August (9.5% YoY change).

Looking at data from the Ports of LA and Long Beach, the YoY change might be close to zero soon - something that hasn't happened since the 2001 recession.

大恐慌！？その162 2007年３Qの米S&P500の利益は対前年同期▲8.5%減（GM除き）

90%以上の発表が終わった段階で、 2007年３Qの米S&P500の利益は対前年同期▲8.5%減（GM除き）、巨額の繰り延べ税金資産を取り崩したGMを含んだベースでは、▲27.8%減となった模様。メリルリンチのDavid Rosenberg氏は、企業利益がビジネスサイクル（景気の循環）を主導しているとした上で、レセッションは既に来ているか、半年の間には来ると言っている。年末商戦の初日は好調だった様だが、４Qもサブプライム関連の追加損失は不可避な情勢を考えると、楽観視できる状況ではないだろう。

○Merrill's Rosenberg: Recession

From Alan Abelson at Barron's: Skeleton at the Feast (hat tip Jas)

In a piece [Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg] put out Friday, he says unequivocally that if you're looking for the earnings recession, you need look no more -- it's here. ...

With the tally now encompassing 90% of the companies reporting, third-quarter earnings per share dropped 8.5% from the third quarter last year. ...

David stresses that profits drive the business cycle -- capital spending and employment feed off them. And he sighs: "It has always been thus." Hence, he's ineluctably forced to the conclusion that a recession in the economy "is either here or no more than two quarters away."

I believe Rosenberg is referring to operating earnings excluding the huge GM loss(1). S&P 500 operating earnings are off 8.5% from Q3, 2006 and off 12.4% from Q2 2007.

I'm not sure about the recession being "here now". There are signs of a slump in non-residential structure investment, but software and equipment investment still appears steady. And the all important holiday retail sales are apparently off to a healthy start: Retailers post robust start to holidays

According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, total sales rose 8.3 percent to about $10.3 billion on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, compared with $9.5 billion on the same day a year ago. ShopperTrak had expected an increase of no more than 4 percent to 5 percent.

It is always hard to tell in real time when a recession has started, but I don't think the U.S. economy is in recession - yet.

Note 1: as reported earnings, including GM, are off 27.8% from Q3 2006.

大恐慌！？その161 10月住宅着工件数は前月比+3.0%増も許可件数は6.6%減

米商務省発表の10月住宅着工件数は、前月比3.0%増の122万9,000戸（市場予測117万戸）となった。ただ、先行指標となる住宅着工許可件数は、前月比6.6%減の117万8,000戸となっており、引き続き下落トレンドであることには変わりは無い。

※２の２つ目のグラプが示すとおり、住宅着工件数（緑。6ヶ月ずらし）に遅行する住宅完成件数（赤）は、今後とも大きく下落することが想定される。ただ、本来住宅完成件数と相関関係の高いはずの民間住宅建設労働者数（青）の下落は限定的である。不法労働者が減少しただけという見方もあるが、現実にブームにおいて正規労働者も住宅完成件数に比例して増加してきた事は、グラプの示すところであり、プラスの影響は受けてもマイナスの影響は受けないという都合の良い事はありえず、タイミングのずれだけの問題と思われる。 

※１　10月住宅着工件数：122万9,000戸

http://www.daikiusa.com/indicators/past/housing_starts.html 米商務省発表の10月住宅着工件数は、前月比3.0%増の122万9,000戸となった。市場予測は117万戸。 先行指標となる住宅着工許可件数は、前月比6.6%減の117万8,000戸。 一戸建ては前月比7.3%減の88万4,000戸（前月は95万4,000戸）、集合住宅は44%増の34万5,000戸（同23万9,000戸）。 マーケットでは、住宅市場の先行き不透明感は強いとの見方が支配的。10月の着工件数は増加したものの、先行指標である着工許可件数は急激な減少トレンドを維持しており、住宅市場が更に縮小するリスクが払拭できない。

 

※２　Housing Starts and Completions for October

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/housing-starts-and-completions-for.html

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of starts and completions. Completions follow starts by about 6 to 7 months.

The small increase in starts is just noise. With permits falling, starts will continue to fall in coming months. With record inventories, this report shows that the builders are still starting too many homes.

More interesting: Look at what is about to happen to completions:

This second graph shows starts, completions and residential construction employment. (starts are shifted 6 months into the future). Completions and residential construction employment were highly correlated, and Completions typically lag Starts by about 6 months.

Completions were at a 1.436 million rate in October, but are about to follow starts down to the 1.2 million level. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next few months, impacting residential construction employment.

Note: there are many reasons why the BLS reported employment hasn't fallen as far as expected (blue line), but with completions falling further over the next few months - and commercial real estate activity slowing - I'd expect to see significant declines in construction employment soon.