商業用不動産の急落について、何度も書いているが、建設投資の統計上はやっとピークアウトがあらわれた段階である。以下のグラフにあるように、非住居建設投資は、まだ高水準にとどまっている（上グラフの青）が、対前年伸び率は明らかな下落傾向である（下グラフの青）。驚くべきことに、これだけ不況と言われながら、非住居建設投資はこれまで好調を保っていたわけである。様々な先行指標が告げる急落がいよいよ始まる段階となっている。
○Construction Spending Declines in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/construction-spending-declines-in.html
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993.
Nonresidential spending is still holding up as builders complete projects, but there is substantial evidence of a slowdown - less lending for new projects, less work for architects - and it appears that non-residential spending has peaked. On the graph nonresidential spending has been relatively flat for the last few months, but I expect some serious cliff diving over the next 18 months.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and non-residential construction spending.
The YoY change in non-residential spending is starting to slow down and will probably turn negative early in 2009. Residential construction spending is still declining, but the rate of decline has slowed.
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