大恐慌！？その368 米建築士請求指数（ABI）と建設投資

以前から米国の建設投資の先行指数として紹介している米建築士請求指数（Architecture Billings Index ）と、建築投資（Construction Spending）の関連について、示したグラフが以下の通り。前回2002年の不況ではABIと建設投資は連動（上のグラフ）。今回、ABIは大きく下落しているが、建築投資の下落はまだスローであり（し下のグラフ）、今後拍車がかかることが想定される。

  

○Architecture Billings Index as a Leading Indicator of Construction Spending

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/architecture-billings-index-as-leading.html

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph from 2005 compares the Architecture Billings Index from the American Institute of Architects and year-over-year change in non-residential construction spending from the Census Bureau. The correlation is pretty strong (see the paper for more).

The second graph is an update through Dec 2008 for the ABI, and Nov 2008 for construction spending.

I've had to change the scale to fit the collapse in the ABI on the graph.

The ABI typically leads construction spending by about 9 to 12 months according to AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. This graph also suggests the collapse will be very sharp, and although there isn't enough data to know if this is predictive of the percentage decline in spending, it does suggest a possible year-over-year decline of perhaps 30% in non-residential construction spending.

In November, private non-residential construction spending was at $428.2 billion annual rate. A 30% decline would be to an annual rate of $300 billion or so. Ouch.