大恐慌！？その259 米住宅市場も底入れは見えず。。。

想定以上のコアＰＰＩの上昇や原油価格129ドル台を受け、米国市場は弱くなっている様だ。

さて、米住宅市場については、着工件数に若干の回復が見られるものの、底入れとは言い難い状況。また販売数が下げ止まっても、価格下落圧力は数年間は残るものと思われる。

 

○NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Slides

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/nahb-home-builder-confidence-slides.html

住宅市場指数（HMI)はさらに下落。V字回復ではなくL字型へ

"[T]he message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating..."
NAHB President Sandy Dunn

"[T]he housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times...”
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders

Click on graph for larger image. The NAHB reports that builder confidence was at 19 in May, from 20 in April. Usually housing bottoms look like a "V"; this one will probably look more like an "L". (this refers to activity like starts and sales, but will probably also be apparent in the confidence survey).

 

○Housing Starts Rebound, Single Family Starts Lowest Since 1991

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/housing-starts-rebound-single-family.html

住宅着工指数は増えたものの集合住宅が増えただけで、戸建は減少が続く。

 

The graph shows Total housing starts vs. Single family housing starts.

This graph shows that single family starts are at the lowest level since 1991.

 

 

 

○Moody's: CRE Prices Fall 2.3% in March

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/moodys-cre-prices-fall-23-in-march.html

さらに３月の商業用不動産（CRE)価格は２０００年以来で最大の下落。いよいよCRE崩壊が始まったが、この評価損はまだ十分には織り込まれていない。

On a monthly basis, commercial property prices fell 2.3 percent in March, the most since Moody's began collecting the data in 2000.