(大）不況！？ その66 米４QGDP下方修正の可能性（2.2%へ)

Market Watch調べでは、米Q4GDPが、12月の在庫の減少、貿易赤字の拡大を受け、2.2%に下方修正されるというアナリストのがアナリストのコンセンサスという。参考まで。2/28に次の政府発表がある。

◎Q4 GDP to be Revised Down

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/q4-gdp-to-be-revised-down.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-downward-revision-gdp-coming/story.aspx?guid=%7B7A8E709C%2D918E%2D4D90%2D8904%2DA94998CBD72A%7D

Instead of fairly robust 3.4% annualized growth, the government's next estimate will probably be closer to 2.2%, according to median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Instead of bouncing back, the economy would have turned in its third quarter in a row of below-trend growth.

 

The first quarter also looks fairly tepid, with weak retail sales, falling homebuilding and growing signs that business investment isn't picking up the slack.

 

Revisions to the data are common. On the first pass, the government must simply guess at some of the numbers in the report, such as trade, construction spending and inventory building for the final month of the quarter. The average revision is 0.5 percentage points. But this time, the revision will be at least twice the average. And it would be the largest downward revision in 15 years.

 

The Commerce Department will give us its second estimate of gross domestic product on Feb. 28.