米の1月住宅許可件数は、前月比2.8%減（前年比28.6%減）。着工件数は、前月比14.3%減の141万件（市場予想160万件）となり、前年比では-37.8%減と言う壮絶な落ち込み。住宅完成件数は、前月比-1.2%（前年比-8.0%)に留まり、本格的な雇用への影響はまさにこれから。ちなみに、ピークで約350万人の住宅建設労働者が-37.8%減少した場合、132万人に相当する。この壮絶なインパクトにも拘らず、米株式市場には大きな反応は見られず、株価形成がますますファンダメンタルズから乖離していることが見て取れる。また着工から完成まで6～9ヶ月位のタイムラグがあるため、雇用減は、そろそろ始まり、1月分の影響は7～9月頃に現れるはず。
◎Housing Starts and Completions
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/housing-starts-and-completions.html
Click on graph for larger image
着工件数と完成件数
着工件数（6ヶ月遅れ）、完成件数、受託建設雇用者
S&PがARMなどのリスクの高いSubprimeローンだけでなく、Alt Aなどのほかのローンにも警告を発している様だ。
◎S&P to Warn Earlier
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/s-to-warn-earlier.html
From Bloomberg: Subprime Mortgage Bondholders to Get Earlier Warnings From S&P
Standard & Poor's said it will no longer wait for homes to be foreclosed and sold for losses before alerting investors in mortgage-backed securities that it expects to lower ratings on their bonds.
The ratings company will now consider issuing downgrade warnings based on the amount of loans that are delinquent, in foreclosure proceedings or already backed by seized property, Robert B. Pollsen, an analyst at the firm, said on a conference
call today.
...
``It is a watershed event'' because it means S&P is now actively considering downgrading bonds within their first year and has a new program to address high levels of early delinquencies, said Daniel Nigro, an asset-backed securities portfolio manager in New York at Dynamic Credit Partners ...
And it's not just subprime:
One of the bonds S&P warned about yesterday was backed by Alt A -- often called ``near prime'' -- mortgages, the firm's first warning about that type of security sold last year.
...
``In terms of performance, I'd say there are equal concerns'' about Alt A loans and subprime loans at S&P based on early delinquencies, [Ernestine Warner, an S&P analyst] said. The Alt A bond that S&P warned about was issued by Calabassas, California-based Countrywide Financial Corp., the country's top mortgage lender.
S&P also expressed concerns about home equity loans.
