軍事介入しないと、
アサド体制は、「反アサド派」を根絶やしにするまで攻撃する
かもしれないが、しかし、 反政府側にてこ入れして、
軍事介入しても、
But one of the main problems with military interventions is that it's far from clear that they actually do save any lives at all. The above chart comes to me from a paper by Reed Wood, Jason Kathman, and Stephen Gent (via Erica Chenoweth) and it shows that, historically speaking, intervening on behalf of rebels increases the number of civilians who are killed by increasing the desperation of government forces.
歴史的には、 命がけになって生き残りをはからんとする政府勢力により、殺害される市民がかえって増加する、と言われているわけだ。
したがって、
The Case for Doing Nothing in Syria
Bombing is risky, illegal, and unlikely to help.
By Matthew Yglesias|Posted Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013, at 1:54 PM
Work at the United Nations to get wrongdoing punished. Insofar as geopolitically driven Russian and Chinese intransigence prevents that from happening, accept alliance politics as a fact of life. The government of Bahrain has killed dozens of protesters since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, and America has done nothing. We haven’t cut aid to Egypt despite massacres there, and while it’s at least imaginable that we might cut aid at some point, we certainly won’t be greenlighting any cross-border attacks on the Egyptian military. We don’t have to like it when our friends in Beijing and Moscow block our schemes, but there’s no need to be self-righteous about it.
In this case, the relevant rules are in Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, which states that all countries have an “inherent right of individual or collective self-defense” in the case of an armed attack. Bombing Syria would not be an act of U.S. self-defense. Nor would it be an act of collective self-defense in which the United States comes to the aid of an ally. Beyond individual and collective self-defense, military action may be legally undertaken at the direction of the Security Council. In this case, direction will not be forthcoming, which is what makes Obama’s choice easy. He needs to stick with the pursuit of a rules-based international system by, in this case, playing by the rules.
This is a good option.
What makes it a bad option in the eyes of many is the reality that following my advice will lead to the deaths of many Syrian civilians. That is truly and genuinely tragic. On the other hand, it is by no means clear that bombing military institutions will reduce the number of civilian casualties. Historically, military intervention on the side of rebel groups has increased the pace of civilian deaths, not decreased it.
More to the point, if you put arbitrary framing issues aside, the United States stands by and does nothing in the face of human tragedy all the time. Millions of desperate people in Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, and elsewhere would love to escape dire poverty by moving to the United States to work, and we don’t let them. Nobody in Washington is doing anything about the ongoing civil war in Congo.
One way to look at this―the heartless way―is that the United States is really good at being indifferent to foreign suffering, and that in the case of Syria, we have a pretty strong reason for indifference.
But if reading the news or watching television and thinking about the poor Syrian civilians is leaving you so conscience-stricken that somehow allowing the civil war to continue is intolerable, then think about all the other suffering you aren’t seeing on TV. Try doing something to help some of those people.
If he finds himself pondering a problem for which he thinks he has “no good options,” that means he ought to move on to something else―to problems for which he does have good options but where the issue itself is languishing in obscurity. But for an unsolvable problem like Syria, the good option is the sensible one: Do nothing, and don’t start any unnecessary and illegal wars.
自衛のためでもなく、また、同盟のための集団的自衛権の発動でもなく、安保理決議もないのに武力を行使するのは国際違反であり、また、反政府に味方して軍事介入すると一般市民の犠牲者が増すのだから、むしろアメリカは何もしないほうがましなのだ、というのが記事の趣旨である。
アメリカは他にも外国人を見殺しにしてきたケースは山ほどあるわけで、他にしかたがなく軍事介入するくらいなら、ほかに良い選択肢がある分野で人命救助などの貢献したほうがよほどいい、と。