このブログでもたびたび紹介している悲観派の代表ともいえるNY大Roubini教授のブルムバーグTVでのコメントが紹介されていた。Roubini教授は若干悲観的過ぎる傾向はあるものの、これまで大筋ではRoubini教授の見立てに近いシナリオで進んできており、傾聴に値する。簡単に以下紹介しておく。
・今回は世界大恐慌以来の金融危機
・数百の小さな銀行が倒産
・数十の大きな地方・全国銀行が倒産
・ファニーメイとフレディマックの救済は、 納税者の多大な犠牲の上に、2機関の株主、腐敗したマネージャ、債権者を救う、「利益は個人へ、損失は社会で負担」という悪い例
・税還付の効果の切れる7月以降景気はさらに後退。コンセンサスの6ヶ月ではなく、12～18ヶ月続く厳しいレセッションとなる。
・株価は更に下落しよう（ピークから40%下落）。現在はまだ途中。
○Roubini on Bloomberg TV
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/roubini-on-bloomberg-tv.html
・・・・・・・・・・・・
This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) will go bust
Dozens of large regional/national banks (a’ la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
・・・・・・・・・・・・
Fannie and Freddie are insolvent and the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all moral hazard bailout) is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street; it is the continuation of a corrupt system where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, replacing corrupt and incompetent managers and forcing a haircut on the claims of the creditors/bondholders such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers.
This will be the most severe U.S. recession in decades with the U.S. consumer being on the ropes and faltering big time as soon as the temporary effect of the tax rebates will fade out by mid-summer (July). This U.S. consumer is shopped out, saving less, debt burdened and being hammered by falling home prices, falling equity prices, falling jobs and incomes, rising inflation and rising oil and energy prices. This will be a long, ugly and nasty U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months, not the mild 6 month V-shaped recession that the delusional consensus expects.
Equity prices in the US and abroad will go much deeper in bear territory. In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets.
