Could Airpower Have Won the Vietnam War?
As America launches airstrikes on the Islamic State, a look to the past could provide some interesting insights.
Robert Farley
September 13, 2014
Conclusion
Used effectively, airpower can stop conventional military offensives. However, it could not resolve the fundamental political problems that made South Vietnam vulnerable to the North
アメリカはISに空爆を仕掛けているが、ベトナム戦争を例にとると、空爆で通常の軍事攻勢を抑止することはできるが、その根底にある政治問題を解決することはできない、と。
Signs of Decay
02.06.15
ISIS Barbarians Face Their Own Internal Reign of Terror
When arguments spin out of control, they are elevated to the level of treason, and disobedience is automatically seen as rebellion deserving of summary execution, according to some of these activists.
Many militants feel greater loyalty to their sub-groups—whether based on nationality or ideological background. Others have tried to leave ISIS to join the ranks of Jabhat al Nusra, which remains affiliated with al Qaeda but also has proven itself an effective force against Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad.
One of those, who goes by the name Hamood Almossa, says ISIS militants are divided into several competing groups: Some are extreme hardliners originally attracted by the harsh application of Sharia law; others are Syrian militants who now complain that they bore the brunt of the months-long fighting over the border town of Kobani and are reluctant to be used to reinforce ISIS units in neighboring Iraq. Still others are Gulf Arabs jealous of the power held by hardcore Iraqi militants who form the inner coterie of the ISIS leadership around Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The Gulf Arabs, many of whom are veterans from the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, feel excluded from overall decision-making.
North African recruits among the Islamic State’s estimated 20,000 foreign fighters are among the most disgruntled, the Raqqa activists say. They complain they receive less than Gulf Arabs, Europeans, and Chechens who are paid as much as $1,000 a month. They grumble about missing out on many of the spoils of war, including women slaves and jihadi brides. Like local Syrian fighters, North African recruits say they have been used as cannon fodder, especially in the battle for Kobani.
Mideast scholar Martin Kramer warns “there is a temptation to pick up signs of fragmentation and extrapolate them.” He says: “All Islamist movements have such potential conflicts. Hezbollah, for example, was a coalition of Shiites from two very different regions of Lebanon (Bekaa versus South), but it never split because Iran mediated the differences.”
ISの内部で、シリア兵士、湾岸諸国出身兵士、北アフリカ出身兵士などが、差別待遇についての不満を抱いており、また、元からいるイラク兵士たちの権力に対するやっかみもあるやらで、内紛があり、異見は反逆とみなされ、処刑される、と。
もっとも、ヒズボラなどのイスラム組織も、内部のいざこざはあっても、分裂を免れており、仲介が入って空中分裂は避けるかも、という見方も。
ヨルダン
Poverty a threat to stability in Jordan, fueling militancy
"Poverty, isolation, feeling left out of development drives a lot of the grievances among the youth," said Sultan Barakat, a Jordan expert at the Brookings Doha Center. Among these groups, anger at IS will eventually make way again for the appeal of jihadi ideas, he said.
Emad Issayed, head of the neighborhood council, said there had been widespread sympathy for the Islamic State group in Hussein before the pilot was killed.
"They had new ideas, new projects," he said of the appeal of the militants, who declared a caliphate, or Islamic state, in areas under their control last year. "People believed they (the militants) represented an Islamic way of life, and could improve their lives as well."
In recent years, life in Hussein has only gotten harder, he said. About 4,000 refugees displaced by Syria's civil war have moved into the neighborhood, driving up rents and competing for scarce jobs.
"They impose a real burden on us," said Issayed, 57.
A majority of young men are unemployed or underemployed, spending time in small family shops where they are not really needed. Issayed said drug and alcohol abuse is common. "It's a desperate situation," he said.
Sympathy for Islamic State isn't only limited to the poor, said Marwan Shehadeh, an expert on jihadi groups.
"Before this heinous crime, Islamic State enjoyed wide support in Jordan," he said. "Supporters came from all walks of life, the educated, the poor, the well-to-do."
Shehadeh and others have estimated that jihadi groups, including the Islamic State and an al-Qaida rival, have about 9,000 to 10,000 hard-core supporters among Jordanians, including about 2,000 fighting in Syria and Iraq
But Muasher and others said Jordan must also make sweeping changes at home if it wants to defeat the militants. This includes opening up the political system, despite government fears that "doing this might be detrimental to stability," Muasher said.
Barakat said Jordan and its foreign backers must try harder to fix the country's chronic economic problems, such as rampant joblessness among the young, including university graduates.
It is misguided to try to defeat Islamic State only on the battlefield, he said, adding that "the real threat (to Jordan) is going to come from within."
パイロットの火あぶり以前は、貧困層だけでなく、幅広い層から、ISはかなり同情があったのだ、と。
その根底には、貧困、失業、政治的不自由/飲酒・薬物使用/置いてきぼり感、絶望感などから、、ISによりイスラム生活が復興し、自分たちの生活もよくなるのでは、という期待があった、と。
戦場でISと打ち負かすだけでは、的外れで、脅威はむしろ国内にあるのではないか、と。
ーーーー空爆でボコボコ攻撃しても、相手は、アメーバーのように不定形だから、全滅するわけでもない。
不死鳥のイスラム主義 の著者が指摘していましたけど、各地でおきていた断片的なテロが、ボコボコたたかれながら、進化していまや国家樹立まで、目指している、ことは注目すべきであろう、と思います。
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