コラム:香港デモが見落としている「本当の脅威」
2014年 10月 3日 11:20 JST 記事を印刷する | ブックマーク | 1ページに表示 [-] 文字サイズ [+]
。民主化を求める学生主導の抗議活動は数万人規模になっているが、香港市民720万人の大半はデモへの直接参加を敬遠している。
一般市民の支持がない、ということもあるが、
Occupy Central Is Doomed to Fail
The Communist Party will not allow completely free and fair elections in Hong Kong ― period.
zachary-keck_q
By Zachary Keck
October 02, 2014
The massive protests that have swept through Hong Kong in recent days have only made it more urgent that the CCP hold the line on the issue. The Party can ill afford an example of mass demonstrations forcing it to compromise on an issue deemed to be of core importance. Before the protests, it was possible the CCP might have assessed that free and fair elections in Hong Kong would not threaten one-Party rule on the mainland because of the “one country, two systems” mantra. However, the Party giving in on a core issue because of mass protests would, without question, set a dangerous precedent for the CCP’s grip on power in mainland China. It therefore will not be done.
This isn’t to say that a violent crackdown is coming. Indeed, as is almost always the case, the CCP will want the local government on the frontlines in handling the protesters, while Beijing directs things from behind the scenes. As Steve Hess has pointed out in The Diplomat, using local governments as scapegoats has long been an effective tool of the CCP. If it means the restoration of stability, that could very well mean the end of CY Leung’s career. It’s also possible some sort of “compromise” will be worked out that allows the protesters to claim some sort of victory without compromising the CCP’s ability to maintain a large degree of control over the chief executive of Hong Kong.
But when it comes down to it, there will not be completely free and fair elections in Hong Kong under the CCP’s watch for the foreseeable future. The CCP undoubtedly prefers a quick and peaceful restoration of stability in Hong Kong ― so long as its bottom line is upheld. But if forced to choose between its bottom line and peace, the Party would almost certainly choose the former. As many have pointed out, a violent crackdown would have significant economic repercussions on Hong Kong and the country in the immediate term. But the CCP proved quite willing to bear those costs in 1989, and in the decades since China has rapidly accumulated economic influence around the globe, which will ensure any international backlash from a crackdown is less severe and lasting.
中国のさまざまな政策の変化において、共産党の生存、強化、というのは一環しており、今回でも変わらない。かえって、デモ以前なら、自由で公平な選挙もありえたが、大衆のデモによって、共産党の核心的な政策が変わったとなれば、共産党の権力掌握が弱体化したことになり、よくない前例となってしまう。
共産党は背後から香港行政府を操り、あるいは、長官を犠牲にして、社会の安定を維持するかもしれない。
しかし、暴力的取締りをしても、経済的影響力がある今日、世界からの反発もそれほどきびしいものにもなるまいし、長続きもしないだろうから、共産党の権力支配が弱体化するようなことになれば、平和よりも、暴力的な取り締まりも辞さないだろう、と。