福島の甲状腺がん発生率50倍…岡山大・津田教授が警告会見
10月10日10時26分
岡山大大学院の津田敏秀教授（生命環境学）が６日付の国際環境疫学会の医学専門誌「エピデミオロジー（疫学）」に発表した論文に衝撃が広がっている。福島県が福島原発事故当時に１８歳以下だった県民を対象に実施している健康調査の結果を分析したところ、甲状腺がんの発生率がナント！ 国内平均の「５０～２０倍」に達していた――という内容だ。
８日、都内の外国特派員協会で会見した津田教授は「福島県では小児や青少年の甲状腺がんの過剰発生がすでに検出されている。多発は避けがたい」と強調した。
福島県で原発事故と子どもの甲状腺がんの因果関係を指摘する声は多いが、権威ある医学専門誌に論文が掲載された意味は重い。国際的な専門家も事態を深刻に受け止めた証しだからだ。
津田教授は会見であらためて論文の詳細を説明。原発事故から２０１４年末までに県が調査した約３７万人を分析した結果、「二本松市」「本宮市」「三春町」「大玉村」の「福島中通り中部」で甲状腺がんの発生率が国内平均と比較して５０倍に達したほか、「郡山市」で３９倍などとなった。津田教授は、８６年のチェルノブイリ原発事故では５～６年後から甲状腺がんの患者数が増えたことや、ＷＨＯ（世界保健機関）が１３年にまとめた福島のがん発生予測をすでに上回っている――として、今後、患者数が爆発的に増える可能性を示唆した。
その上で、「チェルノブイリ原発事故の経験が生かされなか.#った」「事故直後に安定ヨウ素剤を飲ませておけば、これから起きる発生は半分くらいに防げた」と言い、当時の政府・自治体の対応を批判。チェルノブイリ事故と比べて放射性物質の放出量が「１０分の１」と公表されたことについても「もっと大きな放出、被曝があったと考えざるを得ない」と指摘した。 一方、公表した論文について「時期尚早」や「過剰診断の結果」との指摘が出ていることに対しては「やりとりしている海外の研究者で時期尚早と言う人は誰もいない。むしろ早く論文にしろという声が圧倒的だ」「過剰診断で増える発生率はどの程度なのか。（証拠の）論文を示してほしい」と真っ向から反論。「日本では（論文が）理解されず、何の準備もされていない。対策を早く考えるべき」と訴えた。
「原発事故と甲状腺がんの因果関係は不明」とトボケ続けている政府と福島県の責任は重い。
(日刊ゲンダイ )
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http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2015/10/08/researcher-childrens-cancer-linked-to-fukushima-radiation
Research says cancer linked to Japan nuclear radiation, fueling debate in divided science
FILE - In this March 15, 2011 file photo, a child is screened for radiation exposure at a testing center in Koriyama city, Fukushima Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, after a nuclear power plant on the coast of the prefecture was damaged by March 11 earthquake. A new study says children living near the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer at a rate 20 to 50 times that of children elsewhere, a difference the authors contend undermines the government’s position that more cases have been discovered in the area only because of stringent monitoring. Most of the 370,000 children in Fukushima have been given ultrasound checkups since the March 2011 meltdowns at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant. Thyroid cancer has been diagnosed in 137 of those children, though more broadly the disease occurs in only about one or two of every million children. (AP Photo/Wally Santana, File)
Associated Press Oct. 8, 2015 | 4:26 a.m. EDT + More
By YURI KAGEYAMA, Associated Press
TOKYO (AP) ― A new study says children living near the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer at a rate 20 to 50 times that of children elsewhere, a difference the authors contend undermines the government's position that more cases have been discovered in the area only because of stringent monitoring.
Most of the 370,000 children in Fukushima prefecture (state) have been given ultrasound checkups since the March 2011 meltdowns at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant. The most recent statistics, released in August, show that thyroid cancer is suspected or confirmed in 137 of those children, a number that rose by 25 from a year earlier. Elsewhere, the disease occurs in only about one or two of every million children per year by some estimates.
"This is more than expected and emerging faster than expected," lead author Toshihide Tsuda told The Associated Press during a visit to Tokyo. "This is 20 times to 50 times what would be normally expected."
The study was released online this week and is being published in the November issue of Epidemiology, produced by the Herndon, Virginia-based International Society for Environmental Epidemiology. The data comes from tests overseen by Fukushima Medical University.
Making sense of the relationship between radiation and cancer is precarious: It's scientifically impossible to link an individual cancer case to radiation. Looking harder with routine check-ups, like the one in Fukushima, leads to quicker discovery of tumors, inflating the tallies in a so-called "screening effect."
Right after the disaster, the lead doctor brought in to Fukushima, Shunichi Yamashita, repeatedly ruled out the possibility of radiation-induced illnesses. The thyroid checks were being ordered just to play it safe, according to the government.
But Tsuda, a professor at Okayama University, said the latest results from the ultrasound checkups, which continue to be conducted, raise doubts about the government's view.
Thyroid cancer among children is one sickness the medical world has definitively linked to radiation after the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe. If treated, it is rarely fatal, and early detection is a plus, but patients are on medication for the rest of their lives.
Scientists are divided on Tsuda's conclusions.
In the same Epidemiology issue, Scott Davis, professor at the Department of Epidemiology in the Seattle-based School of Public Health, said the key limitation of Tsuda's study is the lack of individual-level data to estimate actual radiation doses.
Davis agreed with the findings of the World Health Organization and UNSCEAR, or the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, both of which have carried out reviews on Fukushima and predicted cancer rates will remain stable, with no rises being discernable as radiation-caused.
David J. Brenner, professor of radiation biophysics at Columbia University Medical Center, took a different view. While he agreed individual estimates on radiation doses are needed, he said in a telephone interview that the higher thyroid cancer rate in Fukushima is "not due to screening. It's real."
Conclusions about any connection between Fukushima radiation and cancer will help determine compensation and other policies. Many people who live in areas deemed safe by the government have fled fearing sickness, especially for their children.
An area extending about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the nuclear plant has been declared an exclusion zone. The borders are constantly being remapped as cleanup of radiated debris and soil continues in an effort to bring as many people back as possible. Decommissioning the plant is expected to take decades.
