The WorldPost Opinion
To deter North Korea, Japan and South Korea should go nuclear
By Bilahari Kausikan October 10
Once North Korea can directly threaten the continental U.S., the question is bound to be asked: Will the U.S. sacrifice San Francisco in order to save Tokyo? Of course not. Still, North Korea is a catalyst, not a cause; Pyongyang’s quest for a nuclear capability may cause this awkward question to be asked sooner, but it will eventually be asked anyway. China is modernizing its own nuclear forces and will eventually acquire a more credible second strike capability vis-à-vis the U.S. One way or another, American extended deterrence in Northeast Asia will be eroded, as it was decades ago in Europe.
Northeast Asia will respond as France and the U.K. did in the 1950s and 1960s respectively. Japan has the ability to quickly develop an independent nuclear deterrent. It is now only a matter of when, not if, Japan does so. Tokyo has been preparing for this eventuality — with American acquiescence and perhaps assistance — for decades.
Where Japan goes, South Korea must follow. I don’t think Japan and South Korea are eager to become nuclear-armed states, nor is Washington eager for that to happen. But for all three, this is also the least bad option. Japan and South Korea will remain within the U.S.-led Northeast Asian alliance, just as France and the U.K. remained within NATO. But a six-way balance of mutually assured destruction — among the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea — will eventually be established in Northeast Asia.
However difficult the process of getting to a six-way balance of mutually assured destruction may be, once established, it will be stabilizing. All six countries are rational and are functioning polities. The North Korean regime is brutal, but it works. Despite numerous predictions of its imminent demise, it is still here after more than 70 years. North Korea is certainly more coherent than Pakistan, which is also a nuclear-armed state but constantly teetering on the brink of failure.
The new balance could, however, tempt Taiwan to consider its own nuclear options. Taipei harbored such ambitions in the 1960s until the U.S. quashed them the following decade. It would be extremely dangerous for such ambitions to return. The one issue over which China must risk war with the U.S. is Taiwan — the CCP’s rule cannot survive if it allows Taiwan to go independent. Taiwan cannot acquire a nuclear capability without U.S. acquiescence. Thus, it is crucial that the U.S. reassure China that it will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Taiwan.
北朝鮮は原爆持っているから、アメリカは北朝鮮攻撃はしない。中国は北朝鮮政権交代させることはできるかもしれんが、中国国民が中国の政権についても批判的になるから、リスクが大きすぎる。
だとすれば、残りは、抑止政策しかない。
イギリスが同盟関係にありながら核武装したように、日本や韓国も核武装。
米国 日本、韓国 中国、ロシア 北朝鮮 の６カ国で
相互確証破壊が成立し、結果として地域は安定する。
ただし、台湾が核武装しようとすると、中国は戦争も辞さないから、アメリカは台湾の核武装化はやめさせなければならない、と。
ーーー北朝鮮の非核化できなければ、日本は核武装、というのは、おれの見解に一致する。
アメリカと同盟関係を保持したまま、できれば、それに越したことはない。
ちなみに、その場合、韓国がどうしようと、知ったことではない。
