Agent Scott Boras would beg to differ.
The other perception is that the Red Sox can walk away from Matsuzaka, sign free-agent right-hander Roger Clemens and live happily after.
Again, not so fast.
Boras and the Red Sox represent two of the most powerful forces in the sport — equally cunning, equally confident, equally brilliant.
But both sides had better be careful, or they could wind up ruining their respective reputations in Japan.
The staredown figures to continue until midnight Thursday, the deadline for Matsuzaka to sign with the Red Sox.
It's going to happen.
It has to happen.
But the dynamics of the three-way negotiation between Matsuzaka, the Red Sox and the pitcher's Japanese club, the Seibu Lions, remain a source of intrigue.
The issue, of course, is what the Red Sox should pay Matsuzaka after bidding $51.1 million to win his negotiating rights.
Boras wants the pitcher to be compensated like an elite free agent. The Red Sox want to exploit their advantage, knowing Matsuzaka would face embarrassment if he returned to Japan.
If Boras feels cornered, he sure isn't letting on. He could face a firing squad, and still would find leverage.
His best approach might be to challenge the posting process, arguing that the exorbitant right fees encourage major-league teams to depress the salaries of Japanese players.
Matsuzaka, though, probably isn't game for such a fight; he's 26, entering his prime and anxious to play in the majors.
And Boras, while endlessly creative, is nothing if not practical.
Boras probably can't buy Matsuzaka's free agency from Seibu; the precedent would lead to similar defections, irreparably damaging Japanese baseball.
Boras could, however, attempt to persuade Seibu to sign Matsuzaka for one more year at a massive sum — say, $20 million — in exchange for Matsuzaka's agreeing to be posted again after next season.
At that point, the winning major-league bidder presumably would have greater incentive to pay Matsuzaka market value; he would be only a year away from free agency in Japan.
Seibu, meanwhile, would recoup Matusazka's salary and then some in the posting process — which would be better than receiving nothing if he returned next season without agreeing to be posted again.
The risk in such a strategy is that Matsuzaka could get hurt. Seibu also might not trust Boras to deliver the posting fee; the agent, who generally prefers his major-league clients to determine their values on the open market, could opt to wait another year for Matsuzaka to become a free agent.
Ah, but Seibu could protect itself, signing Matsuzaka to his expected base salary of approximately $4.5 million, then offering the rest only as a percentage of the posting fee that would come later.
The Red Sox no doubt are skeptical that Boras would go to such extremes; Boras, however, routinely has demonstrated his willingness to hold out amateur draft picks. The stakes with Matsuzaka are much higher — but then, that's true for the Red Sox, too.
Sorry, Matsuzaka is too highly regarded — and too much of a potential boon to the Red Sox's business — to justify paying him, say, a mere $7 million per season.
When the Orix Blue Wave posted Ichiro after the 2000 season, the Mariners paid $13.125 million for his rights, then signed him to a three-year contract at an average salary of $4.67 million.
If Matsuzaka's average salary represented the same percentage of his posting fee, it would be $18.16 million — about the number that Boras probably thinks is fair for the pitcher.
Even the mammoth posting fee can be viewed from another perspective. If, hypothetically, the Red Sox signed Matsuzaka as a major-league free agent, their luxury-tax payment probably would be in the neighborhood of $51.1 million. The posting fee is (beginital)not(endital) subject to the luxury tax, but Boras could equate them as the added costs of acquiring premium talent.
In the end, though, Boras can push only so far. Matsuzaka isn't a J.D. Drew or Alex Rodriguez, trying to play the market for all it's worth. From every indication — except, perhaps, his choice of Boras as agent — Matsuzaka's primary concern is not maxing out economically, but reaching the majors in his prime.
Matsuzaka would hit the jackpot no matter what the Red Sox paid him; one agent suggests that the pitcher could earn $20 million annually in U.S. and Japanese endorsements. In other words, he would be ill-advised to delay his arrival for a single minute.
The deal will happen. It has to happen.
Both Boras and the Red Sox know it.
---
ボラスの戦略は旨くいっているのか。
The other perception is that the Red Sox can walk away from Matsuzaka, sign free-agent right-hander Roger Clemens and live happily after.
Again, not so fast.
Boras and the Red Sox represent two of the most powerful forces in the sport — equally cunning, equally confident, equally brilliant.
But both sides had better be careful, or they could wind up ruining their respective reputations in Japan.
The staredown figures to continue until midnight Thursday, the deadline for Matsuzaka to sign with the Red Sox.
It's going to happen.
It has to happen.
But the dynamics of the three-way negotiation between Matsuzaka, the Red Sox and the pitcher's Japanese club, the Seibu Lions, remain a source of intrigue.
The issue, of course, is what the Red Sox should pay Matsuzaka after bidding $51.1 million to win his negotiating rights.
Boras wants the pitcher to be compensated like an elite free agent. The Red Sox want to exploit their advantage, knowing Matsuzaka would face embarrassment if he returned to Japan.
If Boras feels cornered, he sure isn't letting on. He could face a firing squad, and still would find leverage.
His best approach might be to challenge the posting process, arguing that the exorbitant right fees encourage major-league teams to depress the salaries of Japanese players.
Matsuzaka, though, probably isn't game for such a fight; he's 26, entering his prime and anxious to play in the majors.
And Boras, while endlessly creative, is nothing if not practical.
Boras probably can't buy Matsuzaka's free agency from Seibu; the precedent would lead to similar defections, irreparably damaging Japanese baseball.
Boras could, however, attempt to persuade Seibu to sign Matsuzaka for one more year at a massive sum — say, $20 million — in exchange for Matsuzaka's agreeing to be posted again after next season.
At that point, the winning major-league bidder presumably would have greater incentive to pay Matsuzaka market value; he would be only a year away from free agency in Japan.
Seibu, meanwhile, would recoup Matusazka's salary and then some in the posting process — which would be better than receiving nothing if he returned next season without agreeing to be posted again.
The risk in such a strategy is that Matsuzaka could get hurt. Seibu also might not trust Boras to deliver the posting fee; the agent, who generally prefers his major-league clients to determine their values on the open market, could opt to wait another year for Matsuzaka to become a free agent.
Ah, but Seibu could protect itself, signing Matsuzaka to his expected base salary of approximately $4.5 million, then offering the rest only as a percentage of the posting fee that would come later.
The Red Sox no doubt are skeptical that Boras would go to such extremes; Boras, however, routinely has demonstrated his willingness to hold out amateur draft picks. The stakes with Matsuzaka are much higher — but then, that's true for the Red Sox, too.
Sorry, Matsuzaka is too highly regarded — and too much of a potential boon to the Red Sox's business — to justify paying him, say, a mere $7 million per season.
When the Orix Blue Wave posted Ichiro after the 2000 season, the Mariners paid $13.125 million for his rights, then signed him to a three-year contract at an average salary of $4.67 million.
If Matsuzaka's average salary represented the same percentage of his posting fee, it would be $18.16 million — about the number that Boras probably thinks is fair for the pitcher.
Even the mammoth posting fee can be viewed from another perspective. If, hypothetically, the Red Sox signed Matsuzaka as a major-league free agent, their luxury-tax payment probably would be in the neighborhood of $51.1 million. The posting fee is (beginital)not(endital) subject to the luxury tax, but Boras could equate them as the added costs of acquiring premium talent.
In the end, though, Boras can push only so far. Matsuzaka isn't a J.D. Drew or Alex Rodriguez, trying to play the market for all it's worth. From every indication — except, perhaps, his choice of Boras as agent — Matsuzaka's primary concern is not maxing out economically, but reaching the majors in his prime.
Matsuzaka would hit the jackpot no matter what the Red Sox paid him; one agent suggests that the pitcher could earn $20 million annually in U.S. and Japanese endorsements. In other words, he would be ill-advised to delay his arrival for a single minute.
The deal will happen. It has to happen.
Both Boras and the Red Sox know it.
---
ボラスの戦略は旨くいっているのか。