始めて見たときは、良い意味でびっくりしたが、今となっては、うざくてしょうがない。細木と同じように出来るだけ見ないようにしている。細木の顔を見なくなってせいせいする。清原も試合に出なくてせいせいする。亀田長男の視聴率がドーンと下がってせいせいする。嫌な人の顔は見ないことに限る。
SI.comより抜粋。
The Yankees are a long way from being eliminated in 2007, but for the first time in 14 years, it seems not only possible, but likely that the Yankees will not make it to the postseason. Last year, the Atlanta Braves failed to win their division for the first time since 1990, ending the longest streak of both division titles and playoff appearances in baseball history. This year it looks as though the second-longest streaks of both kind will come to an end in the Bronx.
Two years ago, the Yankees got off to another awful start and many articles such as this one were written about the fact that the dynasty had come to an end. As it turned out, the Yankees managed to keep their streak of division titles going by virtue of a tie-breaker secured on the penultimate day of the season. On June 1, 2005 the Yankees were four games out of first place in the AL East, 2.5 games out of the wild card, and had a .529 winning percentage. Tonight, the Yankees open up a three-game series in Boston trailing the first-place Red Sox by 13.5 games. They are seven games behind the defending AL Champion Tigers in the wild card race, with six other teams filling the space in between, and have a .431 winning percentage. Yankees legend and unofficial team mascot Yogi Berra famously said, "it ain't over 'til it's over," but it's looking awfully over in the Bronx.
Yogi himself didn't see much of this in his days as Yankees catcher. In fact, he saw it just once, in 1959 when the Yankees were six games out with a .452 winning percentage on June 1 and finished the season 15 games behind the Go-Go White Sox with a .513 mark. When Berra was a Yankee coach, the 1978 Bronx Bombers famously came from 14 games back on July 20 to steal the division from the Red Sox in a one-game playoff. On June 1, 1978, however, the Yankees were three games behind Boston with a .630 winning percentage.
In a series of articles on Baseball Prospectus.com in early 2003 and again in an upcoming Baseball Prospectus book on pennant races, Dr. Rany Jazayerli has examined the importance of a team's early-season performance. The result of his research was a series of formulas that allows us to calculate a team's most likely full-season record based on its performance in its first 50 games as well as over the previous three seasons. Using Dr. Jazayerli's formulas we come up with the following for the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers:
Team W-L Pct.
BOS 100-62 .617
DET 89-73 .552
NYY 80-82 .497
By these methods, the Yankees can be expected to finish 20 games out in the East and nine games out in the wild card while finishing below .500 for the first time since 1992, when Buck Showalter was in his first year as Yankees manager. Pythagorean record is more optimistic, but even that measure determined by runs scored and allowed would have the Yankees finishing a solid 14 games out of first in the East and three games behind the Tigers in the Wild Card race.
If there's any hope to be had for the Yankees, who just lost Jason Giambi to the disabled list for at least a month with a tear in the plantar fascia in his left foot and announced that prized pitching prospect Phil Hughes suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain while rehabbing his Grade 2 hamstring tear and will likely not be able to rejoin the team until at least August, it's in the examples from recent history provided by the A's, Marlins, and Astros.
In 2001, the A's came from eight games out on July 7 to win the AL Wild Card. In 2002, those same A's came from nine games behind on June 5 to win the AL West. In 2003, the eventual world champion Marlins came from 9.5 games out on June 19 to win the NL wild card. In 2005, the eventual NL champion Astros came from eight games out on June 29 and 10.5 games out on June 1 to win the NL wild card. Most significantly, none of those four teams had a winning record on June 1, with the Astros posting an especially awful .373 winning percentage over their first 51 games of the 2005 season. The Astros went 70-41 (.631) over final four months of the 2005 season to win the wild card on the very last day of the regular season by a single game over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros' record that year was 89-73, identical to the projected record for the Tigers above.
It's worth noting that those Astros featured the pitching tandem of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. It seems extremely unlikely that Clemens and Pettitte could experience such a thrilling comeback twice in four years, but there remain a few lingering reasons for optimism in New York. The first of which is the arrival of Clemens, who will make his first start for the Yankees in Chicago on Monday night. That said, such a comeback by the Yankees would be historic, which only means that, whether they make the postseason or not, the fate of the Yankees will prove to be one of the biggest stories of the 2007 baseball season.
---
東地区の優勝は絶望的なので、可能性があるのはワイルド・カードのみ。
１００試合以上残って、７ゲーム差なら全く問題ない。過去の結果はあてにならない。今日はフラストレーションが溜まっているので、こんな無駄な記事を書いている評論家を殴りたくなる。それをけなしている私は最低の男だ。
The Yankees are a long way from being eliminated in 2007, but for the first time in 14 years, it seems not only possible, but likely that the Yankees will not make it to the postseason. Last year, the Atlanta Braves failed to win their division for the first time since 1990, ending the longest streak of both division titles and playoff appearances in baseball history. This year it looks as though the second-longest streaks of both kind will come to an end in the Bronx.
Two years ago, the Yankees got off to another awful start and many articles such as this one were written about the fact that the dynasty had come to an end. As it turned out, the Yankees managed to keep their streak of division titles going by virtue of a tie-breaker secured on the penultimate day of the season. On June 1, 2005 the Yankees were four games out of first place in the AL East, 2.5 games out of the wild card, and had a .529 winning percentage. Tonight, the Yankees open up a three-game series in Boston trailing the first-place Red Sox by 13.5 games. They are seven games behind the defending AL Champion Tigers in the wild card race, with six other teams filling the space in between, and have a .431 winning percentage. Yankees legend and unofficial team mascot Yogi Berra famously said, "it ain't over 'til it's over," but it's looking awfully over in the Bronx.
Yogi himself didn't see much of this in his days as Yankees catcher. In fact, he saw it just once, in 1959 when the Yankees were six games out with a .452 winning percentage on June 1 and finished the season 15 games behind the Go-Go White Sox with a .513 mark. When Berra was a Yankee coach, the 1978 Bronx Bombers famously came from 14 games back on July 20 to steal the division from the Red Sox in a one-game playoff. On June 1, 1978, however, the Yankees were three games behind Boston with a .630 winning percentage.
In a series of articles on Baseball Prospectus.com in early 2003 and again in an upcoming Baseball Prospectus book on pennant races, Dr. Rany Jazayerli has examined the importance of a team's early-season performance. The result of his research was a series of formulas that allows us to calculate a team's most likely full-season record based on its performance in its first 50 games as well as over the previous three seasons. Using Dr. Jazayerli's formulas we come up with the following for the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers:
Team W-L Pct.
BOS 100-62 .617
DET 89-73 .552
NYY 80-82 .497
By these methods, the Yankees can be expected to finish 20 games out in the East and nine games out in the wild card while finishing below .500 for the first time since 1992, when Buck Showalter was in his first year as Yankees manager. Pythagorean record is more optimistic, but even that measure determined by runs scored and allowed would have the Yankees finishing a solid 14 games out of first in the East and three games behind the Tigers in the Wild Card race.
If there's any hope to be had for the Yankees, who just lost Jason Giambi to the disabled list for at least a month with a tear in the plantar fascia in his left foot and announced that prized pitching prospect Phil Hughes suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain while rehabbing his Grade 2 hamstring tear and will likely not be able to rejoin the team until at least August, it's in the examples from recent history provided by the A's, Marlins, and Astros.
In 2001, the A's came from eight games out on July 7 to win the AL Wild Card. In 2002, those same A's came from nine games behind on June 5 to win the AL West. In 2003, the eventual world champion Marlins came from 9.5 games out on June 19 to win the NL wild card. In 2005, the eventual NL champion Astros came from eight games out on June 29 and 10.5 games out on June 1 to win the NL wild card. Most significantly, none of those four teams had a winning record on June 1, with the Astros posting an especially awful .373 winning percentage over their first 51 games of the 2005 season. The Astros went 70-41 (.631) over final four months of the 2005 season to win the wild card on the very last day of the regular season by a single game over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros' record that year was 89-73, identical to the projected record for the Tigers above.
It's worth noting that those Astros featured the pitching tandem of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. It seems extremely unlikely that Clemens and Pettitte could experience such a thrilling comeback twice in four years, but there remain a few lingering reasons for optimism in New York. The first of which is the arrival of Clemens, who will make his first start for the Yankees in Chicago on Monday night. That said, such a comeback by the Yankees would be historic, which only means that, whether they make the postseason or not, the fate of the Yankees will prove to be one of the biggest stories of the 2007 baseball season.
---
東地区の優勝は絶望的なので、可能性があるのはワイルド・カードのみ。
１００試合以上残って、７ゲーム差なら全く問題ない。過去の結果はあてにならない。今日はフラストレーションが溜まっているので、こんな無駄な記事を書いている評論家を殴りたくなる。それをけなしている私は最低の男だ。
それも、１着しかなく、ぼろぼろになるまで着ていたが、通販で３着買ったので、ラインアップが出来た。２着あれば、１年中何とかなりそうだ。
布団を干した次の日から、風邪を引いて体調が悪くなり、それから１ヶ月位、苦しんで死のふちまで行った。それ以後、一度も布団を干していない。横着者の妻が布団を干すはずがないので、子供には悪いが、３ヶ月間布団を干していない。シーツも取り替えていない。きっとかなり汚いはずだ。知らぬが仏。
土・日は、いつも開店から閉店までパチンコ入りびたりの妻に対しても、今日は珍しく言うことの聞かない子供のこともあり、朝から酒を食らって、子供にもまともな食事を与えなかった。私も卵ご飯、お茶漬け、子供の残した食パン位か。月曜日の朝はいつも、栄養失調気味で、仕事も不調だ。自分の責任もあるが、この生活は何とかならんものかと考えてしまう。
１話 １２．３％
２話 １２．８％
３話 ８．７％
４話 ９．６％
５話 １０．０％
６話 １１．４％
７話 １２．６％
８話 ？
---
確かに、２話、３話は面白くなかったが、その後は盛り上がってきた。ＣＭなしに始まるのも良い。これから視聴率は上がって行く。６月２日の８話は面白かった。
予想は１３％台。
連続ドラマで続けているのは、このライアー・ゲームのみ。
２話 １２．８％
３話 ８．７％
４話 ９．６％
５話 １０．０％
６話 １１．４％
７話 １２．６％
８話 ？
---
確かに、２話、３話は面白くなかったが、その後は盛り上がってきた。ＣＭなしに始まるのも良い。これから視聴率は上がって行く。６月２日の８話は面白かった。
予想は１３％台。
連続ドラマで続けているのは、このライアー・ゲームのみ。
朝日・毎日の共同主催となったため、朝日新聞でも報道されている。
６月１日にＢ級１組の１回戦が行われた。
Ａ級昇級候補、大本命の深浦８段は、棋士が奇数のため、初戦は対戦なし。２人目の本命の渡辺竜王は、高橋９段に負け、まさかの敗戦スタート。高橋に負けるようでは、今期は厳しいと言わざると得ない。
現時点では、１位深浦、２位鈴木、３位はそれでも渡辺。
６月１日にＢ級１組の１回戦が行われた。
Ａ級昇級候補、大本命の深浦８段は、棋士が奇数のため、初戦は対戦なし。２人目の本命の渡辺竜王は、高橋９段に負け、まさかの敗戦スタート。高橋に負けるようでは、今期は厳しいと言わざると得ない。
現時点では、１位深浦、２位鈴木、３位はそれでも渡辺。
６月２日現在のア・リーグの東地区の順位。
１位 レッドソックス ３７勝１７敗、勝率.６８５
４位 ヤンキース ２３勝３０敗、勝率.４３４、ゲーム差は１３．５
年間は１６２試合、レッドソックスは５４試合、ヤンキースは５３試合消化。
残り試合は、レッドソックス１０８試合、ヤンキース１０９試合。
残り試合をレッドソックスが軽く、５割でいった場合、ヤンキースがレッドソックスに追いつくためには、
レッドソックス ５４勝５４敗 ⇒ ９１勝７１敗
ヤンキース ６８勝４１敗 ⇒ ９１勝７１敗
ヤンキースの勝率は、.６２３と不可能な数字ではない。
５割５分でも、
レッドソックス ５９勝４９敗 ⇒ ９６勝６６敗
ヤンキース ７３勝３６敗 ⇒ ９６勝６６敗
ヤンキースの勝率は、.６７０と不可能な数字ではない。
９０勝すれば、東地区で優勝できなくても、ワイルドカードで、プレーオフに出場できる。
結論：ヤンキースはプレーオフに出場できる。
１位 レッドソックス ３７勝１７敗、勝率.６８５
４位 ヤンキース ２３勝３０敗、勝率.４３４、ゲーム差は１３．５
年間は１６２試合、レッドソックスは５４試合、ヤンキースは５３試合消化。
残り試合は、レッドソックス１０８試合、ヤンキース１０９試合。
残り試合をレッドソックスが軽く、５割でいった場合、ヤンキースがレッドソックスに追いつくためには、
レッドソックス ５４勝５４敗 ⇒ ９１勝７１敗
ヤンキース ６８勝４１敗 ⇒ ９１勝７１敗
ヤンキースの勝率は、.６２３と不可能な数字ではない。
５割５分でも、
レッドソックス ５９勝４９敗 ⇒ ９６勝６６敗
ヤンキース ７３勝３６敗 ⇒ ９６勝６６敗
ヤンキースの勝率は、.６７０と不可能な数字ではない。
９０勝すれば、東地区で優勝できなくても、ワイルドカードで、プレーオフに出場できる。
結論：ヤンキースはプレーオフに出場できる。
ESPNより抜粋。
Roger Clemens was scratched from Monday's start against the Chicago White Sox because of a fatigued right groin.
Clemens first experienced the pain during his last minor league outing, for Triple-A Scranton on Monday. Rather than risk additional injury, he decided to be cautious, the Yankees confirmed during Saturday's game against the Boston Red Sox.
"Roger has kept us informed," manager Joe Torre said during the television broadcast. "He wasn't sure yesterday that it was going to keep him from starting, and today we got the news that he's going to need some extra time."
Clemens believes he needs an extra four to five days to recover, keeping him out of the four-game series at Chicago, and that this is not a major injury.
That timeframe would put him in line to face the Pirates in Yankee Stadium next weekend.
For now, the Yankees will send Clemens to Class-A Tampa for rehab and evaluate him day to day.
Kei Igawa is likely to start on Monday.
"He's definitely a possibility," Torre said. "He may be not quite where we want him to be yet, but in search of a starter as opposed to bringing somebody back on short rest is probably the way we'd like to go."
The decision to scratch Clemens was first reported by The New York Times on its Web site.
The 44-year-old, seven-time Cy Young winner came out of retirement to take a prorated share of a $28 million salary to help New York overcome a double-digit deficit in the AL East. The Yankees considered having Clemens pitch this weekend when they played the AL East-leading Red Sox, but decided to ease him in without the hubbub surrounding their biggest rivalry.
New York entered Saturday's game trailing Boston by 12½ games. Clemens will lose $153,006 for each day he's not added to major league roster.
After one start at Class-A Tampa and one at Double-A Trenton, the Rocket made his final minor league start Monday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He allowed two hits and struck out six over six scoreless innings.
"You have arguably the best pitcher of our generation coming in, a guy that won championships and a guy won all kinds of awards," center fielder Johnny Damon said. "He knows what it takes to win championships and be at that next level and be a better player. His personality will be very instrumental to us."
---
28,000,000÷153,006＝183.0日、つまり、半年間で2800万ドルの契約。１年なら5600万ドル(67億円)。しかし、一軍に上がらなかったら、お金が貰えない契約のようだ。ヤンキースは気が狂っている。しかし、今年はもう優勝できない。
Roger Clemens was scratched from Monday's start against the Chicago White Sox because of a fatigued right groin.
Clemens first experienced the pain during his last minor league outing, for Triple-A Scranton on Monday. Rather than risk additional injury, he decided to be cautious, the Yankees confirmed during Saturday's game against the Boston Red Sox.
"Roger has kept us informed," manager Joe Torre said during the television broadcast. "He wasn't sure yesterday that it was going to keep him from starting, and today we got the news that he's going to need some extra time."
Clemens believes he needs an extra four to five days to recover, keeping him out of the four-game series at Chicago, and that this is not a major injury.
That timeframe would put him in line to face the Pirates in Yankee Stadium next weekend.
For now, the Yankees will send Clemens to Class-A Tampa for rehab and evaluate him day to day.
Kei Igawa is likely to start on Monday.
"He's definitely a possibility," Torre said. "He may be not quite where we want him to be yet, but in search of a starter as opposed to bringing somebody back on short rest is probably the way we'd like to go."
The decision to scratch Clemens was first reported by The New York Times on its Web site.
The 44-year-old, seven-time Cy Young winner came out of retirement to take a prorated share of a $28 million salary to help New York overcome a double-digit deficit in the AL East. The Yankees considered having Clemens pitch this weekend when they played the AL East-leading Red Sox, but decided to ease him in without the hubbub surrounding their biggest rivalry.
New York entered Saturday's game trailing Boston by 12½ games. Clemens will lose $153,006 for each day he's not added to major league roster.
After one start at Class-A Tampa and one at Double-A Trenton, the Rocket made his final minor league start Monday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He allowed two hits and struck out six over six scoreless innings.
"You have arguably the best pitcher of our generation coming in, a guy that won championships and a guy won all kinds of awards," center fielder Johnny Damon said. "He knows what it takes to win championships and be at that next level and be a better player. His personality will be very instrumental to us."
---
28,000,000÷153,006＝183.0日、つまり、半年間で2800万ドルの契約。１年なら5600万ドル(67億円)。しかし、一軍に上がらなかったら、お金が貰えない契約のようだ。ヤンキースは気が狂っている。しかし、今年はもう優勝できない。
Adam Fawer "Improbable" より。日本語訳では何かはっきりと思い出せない。調べればすぐわかるが、敢えて検索しない。
When elephants are babies, they are tied to posts with heavy steel and chains. During those first months they learn no matter how much they struggle, the chains are unbreakable.
But ropes are so much weaker than chains. The elephants could easily break them. But the trainers don't use ropes until the elephants learn that escape is impossible. It's not the ropes that prevent the elephants from escaping -- it's their minds. That's why knowledge is so powerful.
If you can think you can do something, even if you shouldn't be able to, often you can. And if you think you can't, you never will, because you won't even try.
---
某教授の誕生日の講義の部分が最高。ここも大好き。
へこんでいる時に読んで、元気が出てきた。
When elephants are babies, they are tied to posts with heavy steel and chains. During those first months they learn no matter how much they struggle, the chains are unbreakable.
But ropes are so much weaker than chains. The elephants could easily break them. But the trainers don't use ropes until the elephants learn that escape is impossible. It's not the ropes that prevent the elephants from escaping -- it's their minds. That's why knowledge is so powerful.
If you can think you can do something, even if you shouldn't be able to, often you can. And if you think you can't, you never will, because you won't even try.
---
某教授の誕生日の講義の部分が最高。ここも大好き。
へこんでいる時に読んで、元気が出てきた。