North Korea’s new missile tests hide deeper concerns
Kim failed to gain traction with Trump, but the US regional security structure is under rising pressure from without and within
ByANDREW SALMON
北朝鮮のミサイル発射の意義について、Lankov氏のところだ抜き出すと、
“Kim wants to basically remind everyone that he is not going to sit idle when Americans and South Koreas are doing their military exercises,” Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University, told Asia Times. “He also wants to exert pressure on South Korea while minimizing the threat to the US. He does not want to excessively annoy them as he needs some cooperation on sanctions and still wants to engage in negotiations.”
“I don’t think he will break the moratorium on nuclear tests or [intercontinental ballistic missile] tests as he doesn’t want to annoy the Americans,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “It is not a big problem if the attention is not high – they just want to send a signal to show they are unhappy, and that signal had been registered.”
They are not formal allies, but there is going to be a great deal of military cooperation” between Beijing and Moscow in the region, Lankov said, citing tensions between both Washington and Beijing and also Washington and Moscow.
This raises the question of whether the Beijing-Moscow bilateral cooperation against the US and its regional allies is expanding to a trilateral triangle that includes North Korea.
That looks less likely, according to Lankov.
“We are seeing cooperation, but only to a small extent, as North Korea is seen as being unreliable, unpredictable and unruly by both China and Russia,” Lankov said. “There will be occasional opportunistic cooperation on an ad hoc basis with North Korea, but both sides do not trust North Korea, and North Korea trusts nobody.”
米韓演習にやられてだまっちゃいないよ、韓国、てめええふざけるなよ、でもアメリカを怒らせたくはない、というメッセージ
反米で、中露が接近するなか、中露北朝鮮の三角協力関係ができるか、というと、中露は北朝鮮を信用していない、北朝鮮は誰も信用していないから、その場の都合に合わせた一時的な協力はあるかもしれないが、中露北で反米、ということはなかろう、と。
ーー北朝鮮の核武装について、アメリカは打つ手なしで、制裁を続けるだけで、もうこれ以上進展しない。
だったら、米韓同盟解消して、アメリカが半島から退いて、中国に任せたほうが、なんとかなるのではないか。
中国も北朝鮮を信用してないから、核兵器は排除させたい。米からの制裁が続くなか、中国からの資源援助は必須なわけで、影響力としては、中国のほうが大きい。
米韓同盟がなくなれば、半島有事になっても、北朝鮮が、在日米軍基地を攻撃する理由もなくなる。
・・・・というのが私の読みであります。