Gaming out the North Korea crisis: How the conflict might escalate
via Toru
If the latest North Korean threats about hitting Guam reflect any real intent beyond rhetorical saber-rattling, a launch would be detected by Japanese radar, leading U.S. ships in the Pacific to launch missiles to destroy the North Korean warhead, according to one scenario. The immediate crisis might be averted, but North Korea might then respond by attacking South Korean patrol boats near the border between the two Koreas.
Skirmishes have taken place in that area for many years, but the chances that such a conflict could quickly metastasize into a full-scale war are high, military analysts said.
In a conventional war, heavy casualties would likely result as North Korean troops poured into the South, using tunnels the North is reported to have built under the demilitarized zone between the countries. In addition, North Korea is believed to have a stockpile of several thousand tons of chemical weapons, according to the International Crisis Group, which studies global conflicts.
In war games played out at Washington policy institutes, even minor confrontations have led to a nuclear exchange. In one model, a single nuclear device deployed against Seoul would result in 180,000 deaths and 160,000 additional injuries, along with a near-total collapse of civil order, including a mass exodus from the city leading to gridlock and a paralyzed health-care system.
Even without using nuclear weapons, the North could sow panic and perhaps force a shift in U.S. policy. North Korea might attempt to spread fear through an act of terrorism, said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific security expert at the Center for a New American Security. “A few grenades in downtown Seoul will absolutely close down the city out of fear,” he said.
Even without nuclear force, North Korea might seek to divide the United States from its allies. How, for example, would regional Asian powers react if North Korea shot a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse over Tokyo, temporarily turning off the lights in the Japanese metropolis?
In that instance, some experts concluded, Japan might join with some neighbors to urge Washington to cut a deal with Kim, averting further military conflict by accepting North Korea as a nuclear power.
Despite the country’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, “the regime does not have regional ambitions,” concluded Robert Carlin of Stanford University and Robert Jervis of Columbia in a paper that studied how North Korea might use its new status.
“The most likely scenario,” they wrote, “is for Pyongyang to remain tightly focused on its domestic situation, especially on its economy, and on ways to loosen or blunt the pressures from its neighbors and the United States.”
Still, they said, “we could well enter the danger zone of North Korean fatalism, in which a decision to use nuclear weapons, especially against Japan — the historic enemy — would rise on the list of ‘patriotic’ options.”
The North Korean leadership, they warned, “might become. . . fatalistic and decide that death with ‘glory’ is preferable to defeat.”
仮に北朝鮮が予告したとおりにミサイルを発射したとして、そのミサイルは、日本に探知され、アメリカに伝えられて、撃破、それに反応して、北朝鮮が、韓国の警備艇を撃墜・・・・
いざ、戦争になったら、国境付近のトンネルを通じて北朝鮮軍がソウルに突入、あるいは、化学兵器、あるいは、核兵器の使用、あるいは、テロ、あるいは、日本を停電させて、日本がアメリカに譲歩することを願いでることを画策。
仮に、核兵器をもったところで、大方の予想では、北朝鮮の野望というのは外に向いておらず、外圧に抗しながら、国内の経済改善に精を出すことぐらいだろうが、しかし、愛国運命共同体として、敗北よりも栄光の死を選び、核兵器ーー特に宿敵、日本に対してーー使用する道へ走る可能性もある、と。
ーー日本にとっては、金正恩政権は潰しておくに限るかもね。
そして、戦後は半島に九条平和主義憲法を宣誓させる、と。
