Japan Seeks to Neutralize the Threat of a China-Russia United Front—And It's Not Working https://t.co/eQqQEBh797
— mozu (@mozumozumozu) 2018年7月10日
Prime Minister Abe says that he wants to maintain positive relations with Russia to pursue a breakthrough in the countries' territorial dispute. Yet this is only part of the reasoning, not least because Abe must realize that there is no serious prospect of the four islands being returned. A more fundamental explanation is that Tokyo's Russia policy is shaped by Japan's deteriorating security situation and its leadership's attempts to plan for a future regional crisis.
When it comes to Russia, Japan’s goal is more specific. Japanese strategists see Russia as a country in a long-term decline with an unfavorable economic outlook. On its own, it does not pose a threat to the status quo in East Asia. Japan’s concern, however, is that Russia’s isolation from the West since the annexation of Crimea has caused Moscow to increasingly make common cause with Beijing.
In the event of a regional crisis, such as clashes over the disputed Senkaku Islands, Tokyo’s nightmare is that it would face a Sino-Russian united front, while support from the United States would be equivocal.
To neutralize this danger, the Japanese leadership has sought to avoid antagonizing Russia and has tried to use cooperation to encourage the Russian leadership to distance their country from China
Although the logic of Japan's security policy towards Russia is clear, it is unlikely to prove fruitful. For a start, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing continues to become ever closer.
The fact that this relationship has not developed into a full alliance owes nothing to Japan's efforts but is instead because neither side currently sees the need to involve themselves too deeply in the other's international problems. It is also apparent that Japan's attempts to foster security ties with Moscow have not led to a reduction in Russian military activity on Japan's northern frontier.
Within the Indo-Pacific region, Japan rhetorically supports the values of freedom and openness, seeing this as a way of countering China’s alleged attempts to change the status quo by force. And yet, by turning a blind eye to Russia’s aggressive behavior in other regions and by failing to demonstrate solidarity with fellow liberal democracies in the West, Japan is undermining the very principles it purports to uphold.
The Japanese leadership is right that the country is facing an insecure future. However, these growing threats are best-countered by consistently committing to the rules-based international order and by deepening cooperation with partners that share common liberal values.
In previous decades, Japanese governments felt confident enough about the US security guarantee that they were able to take a firm stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Recently, however, the combination of a rising China and Washington’s “America First” rhetoric has encouraged the Japanese leadership to adopt a conciliatory policy Additionally, given President Trump’s own curiously favorable attitude towards the Putin regime, which recently included his call for Russia to be readmitted to the G7, there is little prospect of Abe’s pro-Russian policy receiving criticism from the White House.
よく勉強しとるんじゃないかな？
北方4島が返還さるわけないのに、親露政策をとっているのはなぜか？ 中露が接近して、例えば、尖閣について紛争が起きたときに、アメリカは曖昧な態度をとり、中露に団結されては、日本にとって悪夢になるからである、と。
しかし、いずれにせよ、中露は接近し、それについて日本の為す術ががない。日本がいくらロシアに媚びても、北方でのロシアの軍事活動は減少していない。
そもそも、日本は、自由と開放を謳い文句にして、中国に対抗している。 西洋の自由主義諸国と連携して、ロシアに対抗しないなら、原理原則に立脚している、とはいいがたい。
たしかに、日本の安全保障はやばい状況にあるが、しかし、原理原則に則った国際秩序を遵守し、同じ自由主義国家との連携を深めていくことによって、ロシアに対抗すべきである。
もっとも、
ーーー原理原則に則った国際秩序なんて、レトリックは別にして、欧米が平気で踏みにじってきたものだから、なんぼのもの？といったかんじはする。
そもそも、日本人の感覚として、欧米は、ロシアを目の敵にしすぎる、というところもある。
中国がアメリカを凌ぐかもしれない大国として台頭するなか、現実主義的には、かつて、アメリカが中国を抱きこんでロシアと対抗したように、今度は、ロシアを抱き込んで中国に対抗すべきなのである。
ところが、現実にはそうなっていない。指導者としてのアメリカは、むしろ、世界から撤退しようとしているーアメリカはもはやあまり頼りにしてはならない。
日本独自でできることで、中国、そして、ロシアが嫌がる駒を打っておくべきではないかな。
