THREAD: Today @AbeShinzo is coming to Moscow seeking solution to a territorial dispute with Russia over Kurili islands. But expect no miracles. Putin is unlikely to move an inch, and the main reason why he's playing with Abe is desire to wreck US-Japan alliance. Here is why 👇1/ pic.twitter.com/UWWSXWBwkx
— Alexander Gabuev (@AlexGabuev) 2019年1月21日
6/ Abe's problem: Russia has 0 incentives to follow this path, and Moscow clearly knows that
No matter how much Abe's concessions look fresh domestically compared to Japan's stubborn, old school approach to territorial dispute. For Moscow there is nothing of real value there, and now people in the Kremlin know it well.
BOTTOM LINE: Russia has no intention to compromise on the 2 smaller islands now. If Abe gives Putin a peace treaty without the islands, Moscow will be happy to pocket it. If not - the Kremlin won't be upset as it pays no price for playing a game of diplomacy with Tokyo.
If the current negotiations between Moscow and Tokyo increase suspicions and distrust between Japan and the U.S. or hint on possibility of Tokyo lifting/softening G7 sanctions (highly unlikely) - this is a major price for the Kremlin, and Putin will get it for free.
北方領土を返還する動機も意思もロシア側にまるでない。交渉しているようにみせかけて、日米関係が険悪になれば、もっけもの。
