チャールズ・キンドルバーガー
JAN 9, 2017 17
The Kindleberger Trap
トゥキディデスの罠 というのがあるが、キンドルバーガーの罠というのもあるんだ、と。
世界のトップが交代するとき、交代するトップが気候変動や金融システム、航海の自由など、世界の公共財に投資しないとことで、戦争が起きることもあるんだ、と。
第一次大戦後、イギリスが衰退したが、アメリカが孤立主義をとって、世界の公共財に貢献しないで、公共財にタダ乗りしていたから、その後に、恐慌、大虐殺、世界大戦が起きた。いま、アメリカが世界のリーダーの立場を放棄し始めて、中国が台頭してきているが、中国が公共財に投資しないで、タダ乗りしていると、同じことが起きるんじゃないか、と。
JAN 9, 2017 17
The Kindleberger Trap
Charles Kindleberger, an intellectual architect of the Marshall Plan who later taught at MIT, argued that the disastrous decade of the 1930s was caused when the US replaced Britain as the largest global power but failed to take on Britain’s role in providing global public goods. The result was the collapse of the global system into depression, genocide, and world war. Today, as China’s power grows, will it help provide global public goods?
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In domestic politics, governments produce public goods such as policing or a clean environment, from which all citizens can benefit and none are excluded. At the global level, public goods – such as a stable climate, financial stability, or freedom of the seas – are provided by coalitions led by the largest powers.
Small countries have little incentive to pay for such global public goods. Because their small contributions make little difference to whether they benefit or not, it is rational for them to ride for free. But the largest powers can see the effect and feel the benefit of their contributions. So it is rational for the largest countries to lead. When they do not, global public goods are under-produced. When Britain became too weak to play that role after World War I, an isolationist US continued to be a free rider, with disastrous results.
Some observers worry that as China’s power grows, it will free ride rather than contribute to an international order that it did not create. So far, the record is mixed. China benefits from the United Nations system, where it has a veto in the Security Council. It is now the second-largest funder of UN peacekeeping forces, and it participated in UN programs related to Ebola and climate change.
China has also benefited greatly from multilateral economic institutions like the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. In 2015, China launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which some saw as an alternative to the World Bank; but the new institution adheres to international rules and cooperates with the World Bank.
On the other hand, China’s rejection of a Permanent Court of Arbitration judgment last year against its territorial claims in the South China Sea raises troublesome questions. Thus far, however, Chinese behavior has sought not to overthrow the liberal world order from which it benefits, but to increase its influence within it. If pressed and isolated by Trump’s policy, however, will China become a disruptive free rider that pushes the world into a Kindleberger Trap?
トゥキディデスの罠 というのがあるが、キンドルバーガーの罠というのもあるんだ、と。
世界のトップが交代するとき、交代するトップが気候変動や金融システム、航海の自由など、世界の公共財に投資しないとことで、戦争が起きることもあるんだ、と。
第一次大戦後、イギリスが衰退したが、アメリカが孤立主義をとって、世界の公共財に貢献しないで、公共財にタダ乗りしていたから、その後に、恐慌、大虐殺、世界大戦が起きた。いま、アメリカが世界のリーダーの立場を放棄し始めて、中国が台頭してきているが、中国が公共財に投資しないで、タダ乗りしていると、同じことが起きるんじゃないか、と。
