ぼやかせていただいております。

Kim wins, Trump loses in Singapore

2018年06月24日 11時46分23秒 | Weblog
sine qua nonとは


主な意味
ぜひ必要なもの、必須条件




National Review
Kim Wins in Singapore
By NICHOLAS EBERSTADT
June 21, 2018 10:58 AM


北朝鮮側になにからなにまで仕切られて、トランプの完敗、という記事だが、National Review という保守系メディアの記事であることは注目。


それとあと、2点ばかり。


Why is it so crucial to North Korean leadership to “mass-produce nuclear warheads and missiles and speed up their deployment,” as Kim Jong-un announced his government was doing in his New Year’s Day Address earlier this year? Such a program would not be necessary for regime legitimation, or for international military extortion, or even to ensure the regime’s survival: All of those objectives could surely be satisfied with a limited nuclear force. Why then threaten the U.S. homeland?


Severing the U.S.–ROK security alliance is the sine qua non for the North’s grand vision of reunification — and amassing a powerful nuke and missile force is the sine qua non for severing the U.S.–ROK security alliance. In earlier times, when the South was weaker and the North was stronger, other paths might have appeared feasible, including another full-frontal conventional military assault. But today, nukes and missiles look to be the only option.

If we understand this, we also understand how unrealistic any expectation of a voluntary North Korean denuclearization must be



北朝鮮は南北統一を果たそうとしており、、米国を打ち砕く大量核兵器をもって、韓米同盟を切断したいんだ、と。


Some prominent voices have averred that North Korean denuclearization would necessarily be a complex and protracted affair. One highly esteemed expert, Siegfried Hecker, has even ventured that the process could take up to a decade and a half to complete. Hecker must not have been involved in the denuclearization of Ukraine at the end of the Cold War. For a time, Ukraine possessed the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal: roughly 1,800 warheads. In December 1994, Ukraine joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In June 1996, the last nuclear warhead in the Ukrainian arsenal was removed from Ukrainian soil. If Ukraine could denuclearize in a year and a half, the DPRK — with an inventory orders of magnitude smaller — could presumably do so in months. But only if it wanted to. What is lacking for North Korean denuclearization is not technical expertise; it is a desire to disarm.



非核化には十年以上かかるとか、言う人がいたが、何いってんの?と。

ウクライナは、世界第三の核兵器備蓄国だったが、1994年に核不拡散条約を調印、1996年の6月には、ウクライナからすべての核弾頭は除去された、と。

ウクライナが1年半でできれば、北朝鮮なら数ヶ月でできるだろう、と。ただし、北朝鮮にやる気があればの話だ、と。









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