Why should we believe that diplomacy might be successful now when it has been ineffective ？

How to Make a Deal With North Korea
Escalating tensions have made a diplomatic solution possible. It might be the last chance we have.
By WILLIAM J. PERRY April 15, 2017　

Why should we believe that diplomacy might be successful now when it has been ineffective for the last 16 years?


The first is the possibility of the full cooperation of China. This is not to say that China must be solely responsible for solving the problem of North Korea, but rather the U.S. should make China a full partner in the formulation and implementation of the new approach. China is the only nation that can provide powerful economic disincentives for North Korea, by withholding their substantial food and fuel support. China has been unwilling to do this so far, but in recent months, North Korea’s nuclear threats have become increasingly adverse to China’s core interests. Not only could the provocations lead to a destabilizing regional war, which now seems like more than a theoretical possibility, but they also increase the likelihood that Japan and South Korea will develop their own nuclear weapons, a circumstance China is eager to avoid.　

半島が戦争が起きたり、日韓が核武装するのは中国にとっても不利益から、中国は、本気になるだろう、というのだが、それは、いまも昔も同じじゃないの？

中国が圧力をかけて、政権崩壊すれば、難民が中国になだれこむと同時に、反米政権がなくなるゆえに、駐留米軍と接することになって緩衝地帯がなくなるーー圧力をかけられるのは、中国だが、かければ中国の得になるとも限らない。

Kim Jong Un must now believe that there is a real possibility that the U.S. is prepared to use military force, and must tailor his actions accordingly.

トランプも本気だと身にしみただろうから、北朝鮮も本気で、核開発をやめる方向へ・・・・ってことはないだろうねえええ。

むしろ、その必要性の確信を強めた、と言っている。


fj197099‏
@fj197099

金正恩は核実験を一時見合わせ、今日の軍事パレードを滞りなくやって、米韓合同軍事演習の終わる四月末まで待てば、それで「勝利」となる。トランプはいつまでも軍事態勢を維持できない。金正恩はいつでも核実験やミサイル発射できる。トランプが根負けした段階でやればそれで金正恩の「勝利」だ。

アメリカがトップにたつ世界体制を崩壊させたのは北朝鮮だ、と後の歴史家は書くかもしれないな。