杉山駐米大使、日本の政策はアメリカが信頼出来るパートナーであることを前提としていたが、もしそうじゃないとすると、別のことも考えなければならないと語ったとのこと。まあ、トランプ相手の間は別のことを考えなければいけないだろうな…。 https://t.co/UJPIXMGHna
— Kazuto Suzuki (@KS_1013) 2018年6月15日
“It suggests that when he’s in the mood, the president will cut deals with our adversaries involving the interests of our allies” without consulting them, said Michael J. Green, a former Asia adviser to President George W. Bush who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Ending military drills in South Korea would be a gift to China, which has previously suggested just such a formula: that North Korea freeze its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for a halt to major military exercises by American and South Korean forces.
For China, the ultimate goal is to reduce American influence in the region as it seeks to consolidate and expand its own power. The removal of American troops from South Korea, held out by Mr. Trump as a possibility, is a long-held goal of Beijing.
Some analysts in Japan said they suspected that was his real intention and that North Korea was just a convenient excuse for doing what he has wanted to do all along.
“This has been his own idea expressed since the campaign,” said Fumiaki Kubo, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo. “So this is not a matter of bargaining with North Korea for him. This is his own pet favorite idea.”
The summit meeting’s critics in Japan, much like those in the United States, were disappointed that the joint statement signed by Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim lacked specific commitments by the North, like a timeline or details about how it would actually go about giving up its weapons.
If North Korea keeps some part of its arsenal, while China continues its military buildup, both South Korea and Japan may feel a need to go nuclear themselves.
But in private, there are conversations about whether Japan might someday be forced into a corner.
“We have been basing our policy on the basis that the U.S. is a credible partner,” said Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to the United States. “If that changes, then we have to think differently.”
トランプは気分次第で、同盟国を裏切る。
アメリカが撤退し、その影響力が減少することが中国の長期的目的。
トランプは、選挙期間中から、米軍撤退をほのめかしており、北朝鮮との交渉材料というより、彼の本音。
北朝鮮の軍事力がそのままで、中国が軍備力拡張すれば、韓国と日本は核武装する必要性に迫られる。
たしかに、被爆国である日本には核アレルギーがある。しかし、日本の政策は、アメリカが信用できるという前提のもとにできていたものであって、その前提が崩れれば、核武装せざる得なくなるかもしれないんじゃないか、と。
