The Land of the Sinking Sun

The Land of the Sinking Sun
Is Japan’s military weakness putting America in danger?

BY PHILIPPE DE KONING , PHILLIP Y. LIPSCY | JULY 30, 2013

There is a paradox at the heart of Abe's bluster. Although his calls for a stronger military have worried his neighbors, a decade of budget cuts and a struggling economy means that Japan's military is surprisingly feeble. Despite Abe's bluster, the real threat posed by Japan is not that its military is growing too strong, but that it is rapidly weakening.


Even accounting for the 0.8 percent increase contained in Abe's 2013 budget, Japan's annual defense budget has declined by over 5 percent in the last decade. During the same period, China's defense budget increased by 270 percent (South Korea's and Taiwan's grew by 45 percent and 14 percent, respectively.) In U.S. dollar terms, Japan's defense budget was 63 percent larger than China's in 2000, but barely one-third the size of China's in 2012. In fact, since 2000, Japan's shares of world and regional military expenditures have fallen by 37 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Japan's defense review will likely frighten its neighbors more than it will improve the military.


These figures understate Japan's predicament. Steady declines in defense expenditures over the past decade forced Japan into a series of measures that are beginning to take a toll. In a nation where lifetime employment is the norm, aversion to layoffs and pension cuts have made personnel expenditures virtually impossible to reduce. Consequently, much of the burden fell on the equipment procurement budget, which has declined by roughly 20 percent since 2002. Japanese defense policymakers have coped by extending the life of military hardware, such as submarines, destroyers, and fighter jets. As a result, Japan's focus has shifted from acquisition to preservation, and maintenance costs have skyrocketed: at the end of the Cold War, maintenance spending was roughly 45 percent the size of procurement expenditures; it is now 150 percent.

Because of declining procurement budgets and higher unit costs, Japan now acquires hardware at a much slower rate: one destroyer and five fighter jets per year compared to about three destroyers and 18 fighter jets per year in the 1980s. In the coming decade, Japan's fleet of destroyers stands to be reduced by 30 percent. Although Japan plans to order 42 F-35 fighter jets in the next decade to replace what remains of its aging F-4EJ aircraft, project delays and cost overruns will likely lead to the order's reduction or postponement.




The United States, as Tokyo's principal ally, risks being drawn into a military confrontation. Japan's decline also threatens to undercut the Obama administration's "pivot" towards Asia, as the United States now needs to compensate for Japan's decline.

The United States expects Japan to support its efforts in East Asia and to help ensure that China's rise is peaceful. Indeed, Tokyo played a similar role in the late 20th century, when, despite constitutional restrictions on the use of force, Japan was a respectable military power: as recently as 2002, Japan had the third largest defense budget in the world, with particularly robust, albeit defensive, naval capabilities. Japan's forces in East Asia helped the United States focus its military assets elsewhere without risking instability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Getting back to that place won't be easy, and might even be impossible. A deep structural and economic malaise is at the heart of Japan's military austerity. Japan suffers from the highest public debt levels of any major nation -- 235 percent of GDP -- and a severe budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP in 2012. It has the most rapidly aging population in the world, which means its tax base is shrinking, and its pension and healthcare costs are rapidly mounting. The Japanese government now spends more on debt service and social security than it raises in tax revenues: all other spending, including national defense, is effectively financed through unsustainable debt.





Japan would be better served if Abe's party expands the prime minister's bold economic plan into a long-term reform program that addresses the country's enduring problems: economic stagnation, public debt, and demographic decline. Indeed, Abe's attempts to boost defense spending are unsustainable unless these underlying structural issues are resolved.


Tackling these issues will do far more to restore Japan's international status and credibility than symbolic gestures that stoke nationalism and antagonize Japan's neighbors.

　増税はしないは、年金やら社会保障費などの債務負担が多くて防衛費に費やす予算は減るばかりで、軍備を維持するのが精一杯で、中国に対抗できず、地域の緊張が高まって、米国は日中の紛争に引きずり込まれる危険さえある。

　ナショナリズムを高揚させて近隣諸国と諍いを起こすよりも、経済をしっかり立て直せ、と。


　安倍氏は一部の右翼に迎合して、国際的にくだらないメッセージを送ってしまった側面もあるし、国際的なメディアのでたらめな報道により、誤解されている側面もある。

　いずれせによせ、国際状況について、情報収集、分析、発信が全然できていなかったわけだ。

ナチスの憲法改正「手口学んだら」　麻生副総理が発言

麻生副総理の発言要旨
　麻生氏は２９日、東京都内でのシンポジウムで「ある日気づいたら、ワイマール憲法がかわって、ナチス憲法にかわっていた。だれも気づかないでかわった。あの手口を学んだらどうかね」などと語った。改憲について「狂騒のなかで決めてほしくない」と冷静な議論の必要性も指摘したが、ナチス政権を肯定したとも受け取られかねない。

馬鹿すぎる。



米「慰安婦像」韓国系住民の政治・組織力が背景

　【ロサンゼルス＝水野哲也、ニューヨーク＝加藤賢治】米西海岸ロサンゼルス近郊のグレンデール市で３０日、いわゆる従軍慰安婦を象徴する少女像の除幕式が行われた。


　米国各地で近年、記念碑の設置や慰安婦を巡る議会決議が相次いでいる。韓国系団体は同様の取り組みを各地に広める構えで、日本政府は対応に苦慮している。

　背景には、韓国系住民の組織的な活動と政治力の高まりがある。今回の少女像を設置した「カリフォルニア韓米フォーラム」は、２００７年に米下院が日本に公式な謝罪を求める決議を採択したのを機に設立され、東部の団体と連携している。

　米国内の韓国系住民は、ニューヨークやロサンゼルスなど大都市の郊外に集中して住む傾向があり、献金や集票を通じ、地方議会も含めた議員に接近している。

　０７年の米下院決議を主導したのは韓国、中国系が多いカリフォルニア州の日系議員。ニューヨーク州上院が今年１月に採択した慰安婦関連の決議案を提出したトニー・アベラ議員（民主）によると、原文作成には韓国系の２団体が関わった。

（2013年8月1日00時04分 読売新聞）

　米国人の米軍による性奴隷についての無知さ、そして、日本人の米軍に対する卑屈さーーどーしようもないな。



ーーーーみんなでいっしょに沈もうか。