【論】Michiels,2005,Prediction of cancer outcome wit～

Stefan Michiels , Serge Koscielny and Catherine Hill
Prediction of cancer outcome with microarrays: a multiple random validation strategy
The Lancet, Volume 365, Issue 9458, 5 February 2005-11 February 2005, Pages 488-492
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・ガンのマイクロアレイデータを用いた予後診断に関する研究の結果を、Multiple random validation strategy により、適切な識別評価を行なっているかどうかを検証する。
・データ
1.Non-Hodgkin lymphoma [Rosenwald]
2.Acute lymphocytic leukaemia [Yeoh]
3.Breast cancer [van't Veer]
4.Lung adenocarcinoma [Beer]
5.Lung adenocarcinoma [Bhattacharjee, Ramaswamy]
6.Medulloblastoma [Pomeroy]
7.Hepatocellular carcinoma [Iizuka]

・概要「We aimed to assess the extent to which the molecular signature depends on the constitution of the training set, and to study the distribution of misclassification rates across validation sets, by applying a multiple random training-validation strategy. We explored the relation between sample size and misclassification rates by varying the sample size in the training and validation sets.」
・問題点「In principle, there is no biological or mathematical reason why one particular classification method should be better than others for the prediction of the outcome of cancer patients by use of microarray data. 」
・結果「Five of the seven largest published studies addressing cancer prognosis did not classify patients better than chance. This result suggests that these publications were overoptimistic.」