via mozu
趣旨は、
Trump'll be used as Korea's propaganda. Look at the history of Korea's backsliding on promisesのときと同じ
In fact, all we have from the North Koreans is the secondhand account of a South Korean diplomat of his boozy dinner with Kim Jong Un and an email sent by the North Korean ambassador to the United Nations to Anna Fifield at the Washington Post.
What Kim said, according to the South Korean envoy Chung Eui-yong, was pretty thin gruel: that North Korea would not need nuclear weapons if “military threats towards the North are cleared and the security of its regime is guaranteed.” The email to Fifield didn’t seem to mention it at all, merely offering to explain North Korea’s position to the United States.
In other words, Trump seems to have thought that Kim would meet to give up his nuclear weapons. But for Kim the meeting is about being treated as an equal because of his nuclear and missile programs.
It seems that none of Trump’s aides told him the invitation was nothing special — that North Korea desperately wanted such a visit for more than 20 years.
I think everyone around him just wanted him to think he was winning … something.
Don’t we think that he will, eventually, realize that Kim is getting the better of him? And what happens then? We should be careful that Trump’s childish optimism does not curdle into bitter resentment. In that case 2019 might be more dangerous than 2017.
Because once Trump realizes it, he will look to blame someone. Will Trump blame Rex Tillerson, his embattled secretary of state? In that case, perhaps we’re lucky; the only punishment will be trading Tillerson for Nikki Haley. What if he blames Moon? Will that trigger a crisis in the relationship with Seoul? And then there is my big fear: What if Trump blames Kim Jong Un? What if Trump concludes that the problem was that Kim somehow misled him? That might be very dangerous. It all depends on where the blame lands. And the only thing we know, is that Trump won’t blame himself.
要するに、米朝サミットは、北朝鮮の念願かなったりだけの話。トランプにとってうまくいくわけがない。会談が失敗とわかったとき、自分のせいにしないことだけは確か。誰のせいにするか？ ーーティラーソンならよし。文在寅を責めて、米韓関係を悪化させるか？もし、標的が金正恩になったら・・・・最悪の事態になる、クワバラクワバラ といったところか。
（三浦、木村）
日本としてはとにかく、トランプが安易な妥協をしないような声をあげていくべきである。
