The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai's serial column, which was released on November 10 and marked the end of Weekly Shincho.
This article also proves that she is a national treasure, as defined by Saicho, the supreme national treasure.
French Intellectuals' Worldview and Japan's National Defense Strategy
Emmanuel Todd, a historical demographer and family anthropologist from France, one of Europe's great nuclear powers, visited Japan.
The three-and-a-half-hour seminar he gave at a gathering of members of the 15th anniversary of the Institute for National Fundamental Questions, a think tank, was full of inspiration.
Todd, who gained worldwide fame by predicting the collapse of the former Soviet Union 15 years earlier, believes that the world is already in World War III, with Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine as the starting point.
However, the significant difference between the first and second world wars and what Todd calls "this next one" is that the former occurred as each power was on the upswing, while the latter occurred as each power was waning.
Todd also sees the U.S. and Russia as both declining powers and China as another declining power that cannot threaten the world in the medium to long term due to its abnormally low birth rate (1.3).
He takes a unique view of Germany, Europe's leading country.
He says that Germany is politically dysfunctional and has been crushed by the U.S. in the war in Ukraine.
As for France, he says that the U.S. is trying to destroy the French military industry.
Even though the U.K. has left the E.U., he says the economy is not doing well at all.
Todd's remarks fell short because he needed to provide more support for why China, for example, is not a significant threat.
However, we can condense his most important point to the distance between the U.S., and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (E.U.) has widened.
The U.S. strategy for Eurasia is to "control" the continent and keep Germany and Japan in check, Todd argues.
Japan is currently in the process of a significant review of its national defense strategy and other aspects of its defense policy toward the end of the year.
One of the most important focuses of the review is the establishment of a closer US-Japan alliance, which should change the fundamentals of defense policy with the vigor that has transformed the postwar system.
Rather than suppressing Japan, the U.S. is eager to see Japan rise, defend itself, and become a strong, independent nation capable of contributing to the defense of Taiwan.
In this regard, we disagree with European intellectual Todd's criticism of U.S. policy toward Japan.
However, we should not dismiss Mr. Todd's remarks as merely the criticism of a French scholar who despairs the United States.
We must keep in mind that there is a clear gap of mutual distrust between the United States and Europe and that China and Russia are intervening at the right time.
Incidentally, on November 4, German Chancellor Scholütt became the first G7 leader to visit Beijing since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
His visit to China overcame strong opposition from the Greens and the Free Democrats, who formed a coalition government with Scholl's Social Democratic Party.
He stayed in Beijing for only 11 hours, leaving China without staying overnight, probably considering concerns in Germany, the U.S., and other European countries.
Whenever China finds itself in a difficult position in the international community, it will always try to divide the opposing camp.
President Xi Jinping has been particularly combative and hard-line.
Xi has defended Russia and refused to condemn its wars of aggression, and at the recent Communist Party congress, he strengthened his autocratic dictatorship with surprisingly forceful appointments.
As a result, he has become increasingly isolated in the international community.
He despairs the U.S.
The severity of the situation surrounding China can be seen clearly in the semiconductor policy announced by the U.S. government on October 7.
President Biden's decision to further restrict semiconductor exports is a vital measure that could choke off China's growth.
Germany is seen as the weakest link in this united Western effort to impose sanctions against China.
Not only did Chancellor Scholz visit Beijing, but earlier, on October 26, he sold part of his interest in one of four terminals at the Port of Hamburg, Germany's largest bay, to the Chinese state-owned Cosco Group. The Greens and the German government's ministries of economy, interior, defense, transportation, and finance opposed the sale.
Nevertheless, Scholz sold it.
It is natural that not just the U.S. would want to check Germany's foreign policy stance.
It could magnify the creaking of the U.S.-German relationship, which has become more pronounced since the Trump administration.
Mr. Todd, who says he despairs the U.S., is deeply distrustful of the U.S. and claims that the war in Ukraine is caused by NATO, led by the U.S., which has expanded NATO to the east.
Although it can only be called a difference of opinion, it must be noted that this kind of thinking exists in Europe.
On the other hand, his point that U.S. power is waning is something that the Japanese, more than anyone else, should not forget.
He repeats that he does not believe the Western bloc will win this war.
Immediately after the war began, Russia was seen as militarily strong but economically unable to hold its own.
The results to date show the opposite.
Russia continues to endure economically.
That phenomenon, Mr. Todd sees, will lead to "damage to America's traditional power and a rethinking of the financial and trade settlement systems supported by the dollar reserve currency regime.
Russia is pressing us that the actual international currency is not the dollar, but oil and gas," he says.
"Japan should have nuclear weapons"
Hideo Tamura, a special reporter for the Sankei Shimbun, countered.
"It will not easily break the U.S. dollar hegemony. The factors that brought down Gorbachev's Soviet Union are as follows. First, the Reagan administration adopted a high-interest rate policy, which lowered oil prices. At the same time, the Reagan administration suppressed Saudi Arabia and increased oil production. Once the oil price crashed, it never recovered and became entrenched, and eventually, Gorbachev could not compete with the U.S. and lost. Gorbachev later recalled that the Soviet Union lost because it did not know Saudi Arabia."
If the Republicans win both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, as expected, there is a possibility it will modify U.S. policy toward Ukraine.
Many within the Republican Party are reluctant to support Ukraine.
If the U.S. turns negative, the counterattack by the Ukrainian military, supported by U.S. forces, will be stifled, and a significant change in the war situation will occur.
I wonder if Todd had this situation in mind when he asserted that he did not think the Western bloc would win this war and that Russia might be able to hold out.
What about the impact on Japan?
We must never let China misunderstand Taiwan and Okinawa.
To this end, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida should launch a defense strategy that boasts an unprecedented level of strength toward the end of the year.
Mr. Todd also said, "The war in Ukraine is not a nuclear war.
The war in Ukraine proved that nuclear weapons guarantee complete security. Japan (because of its population) has a hard time recruiting young people for the military. But, then, I believe that Japan should arm itself with nuclear weapons. Therefore, I am convinced that nuclear weapons are necessary to maintain peace."
We must build a strong deterrent force to prevent China from starting a war of aggression.
So think about nuclear weapons," the French intellectual said enthusiastically.
