Well, they're full of it.
Sure, the Sox don't spend as much as the Yankees, but 28 other teams in baseball see them as being cut from a similar cloth. Their success has much to do with their deep coffers. Accordingly, the Red Sox have been among the most spendthrift teams this winter, coughing up more than $170 million on free agents (only the Cubs and Giants have spent more). That figure, it should be noted, doesn't even include the $51 million they paid for the right to talk shop with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees, meanwhile, have spent less than the Royals. Chew on that for second ・p>Back? Okay. So all the dollars flying around at Fenway raises the question of whether Boston has done enough to challenge the Yankees in 2007 and return to the post-season. Let's begin to answer this question by looking at some of Boston's key statistical indicators from last season (AL rank in parentheses) ・p>Runs Scored: 820 (6th)
Runs Allowed: 825 (11th)
On-Base Percentage: .351 (2nd)
Slugging Percentage: .435 (7th)
Starters' Runs Allowed: 550 (10th)
Bullpen Runs-Per-Nine: 275 (11th) Defensive Efficiency*: .683 (12th)
(* - Defensive Efficiency measures what percentage of balls in play a defense converts into outs)
Other than getting on base, Boston did nothing particularly well in 2006. Over the last three seasons, Fenway has increased run scoring by roughly 6.0%, so that tends to make the pitching staff look a little worse than it really is and, conversely, the offense look a little better than it really is. With that said, run prevention — i.e., the rotation, the bullpen and the defense — was the primary shortcoming in 2006.
To the end of improving the run-prevention corps, the Red Sox have, of course, imported Matsuzaka. Any player making the leap stateside is a bit of an unknown quantity, but Matsuzaka figures to be a certifiable force. Expect 200 or so innings and a comfortably sub-4.00 ERA. He's just what the Sox need. Rounding out the rest of the rotation will be Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and, in all likelihood, Jonathan Papelbon. Beckett was never an ideal fit for Fenway, but he figures to improve on that 5.01 ERA he posted last season.
Schilling should be effective, Wakefield as a starter is a reliable purveyor of league-average innings, and Papelbon has enough of a repertoire to pass muster as a member of the rotation. The keys will be getting improvement (and health) from Beckett and getting a smooth transition (and health) out of Papelbon. Overall, expect a much better rotation in 2007.
As for the bullpen, Hideki Okajima should provide reliable innings from the left side, and Joel Pineiro, provided he concentrates on the pitches he throws well (four-seamer, slider), should be a capable closer. Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez return, Brendan Donnelly will bolster the right-handed depth, and one-time closer of the future Craig Hansen should improve on his awful 2006 campaign.
One factor to be considered is that the Boston pen will be without the tremendous innings Papelbon gave them last season. While Pineiro figures to be effective in his new role, he won't be as great as Papelbon was. The additions of Pineiro, Okajima and Donnelly will be offset to a degree by the loss of Papelbon's innings, but overall expect a modestly improved relief unit.
The troublesome defense, meanwhile, might also be a tad better. J.D. Drew (given good health, of course) is a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder, and the infield defense should also be significantly upgraded with the addition of Julio Lugo at short and the promotion of second-base prospect Dustin Pedroia.
Offensively, the Sox have some superficial appeal, but they ranked only ninth in the AL last season in runs scored on the road. As well, the total of 820 runs is the worst such mark by a Boston team since 2001. So this is where Drew and Julio Lugo come in.
Boston right fielders last season combined for a .265 AVG/.352 OBP/.425 SLG, and Drew, if healthy, should provide substantial improvement over those numbers. Red Sox shortstops, meanwhile, authored a cumulative 2006 batting line of .250 AVG/.306 OBP/.368 SLG. Lugo should have no problem bettering those numbers. His performance declined after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, but Lugo's injured finger almost certainly played a role. There's a very real chance that in 2007 he could be the AL's best shortstop not named Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada or Carlos Guillen.
Elsewhere, Pedroia should roughly approximate Mark Loretta's 2006 level of production, and Coco Crisp is poised for a rebound season. On the whole, the Sox's offense should be better.
Overall, it's worth noting that Boston in 2006 was actually fortunate to finish with that 86-76 record. After all, that narrowly negative run differential suggests they should've been a .500 team. So while improvements have been made this winter, Boston's baseline might be lower than you think.
That brings us to the contingencies. Schilling and Jason Varitek must stave off age-related decline, Drew must stay healthy, Crisp must revert to his 2005 form, Matsuzaka must live up to the press clippings, and Papelbon and Pineiro must adapt to their new roles. If those things happen, the Red Sox should make the post-season. However, it's highly unlikely they'll be able to best the Yankees for the AL East title. The Yankees are simply a better team. Of course, maybe a Boston signing of Roger Clemens could change that ・p>On the Wild Card front, the Sox will likely be competing with the powerhouses of the AL Central. However, what's in their favor is that the unbalanced schedule means a high level of attrition among the Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Indians. That leaves an opening for the revamped Red Sox.
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松坂を含む先発投手陣は、確かに良いようだが、岡島の活躍には疑問符が付く。
それにしても、アメリカ人は、必要もないデータを作るのが好きな人種だ。優位性を証明するために、無理をしてまで、新しいデータを作るのはおろか。
Sure, the Sox don't spend as much as the Yankees, but 28 other teams in baseball see them as being cut from a similar cloth. Their success has much to do with their deep coffers. Accordingly, the Red Sox have been among the most spendthrift teams this winter, coughing up more than $170 million on free agents (only the Cubs and Giants have spent more). That figure, it should be noted, doesn't even include the $51 million they paid for the right to talk shop with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees, meanwhile, have spent less than the Royals. Chew on that for second ・p>Back? Okay. So all the dollars flying around at Fenway raises the question of whether Boston has done enough to challenge the Yankees in 2007 and return to the post-season. Let's begin to answer this question by looking at some of Boston's key statistical indicators from last season (AL rank in parentheses) ・p>Runs Scored: 820 (6th)
Runs Allowed: 825 (11th)
On-Base Percentage: .351 (2nd)
Slugging Percentage: .435 (7th)
Starters' Runs Allowed: 550 (10th)
Bullpen Runs-Per-Nine: 275 (11th) Defensive Efficiency*: .683 (12th)
(* - Defensive Efficiency measures what percentage of balls in play a defense converts into outs)
Other than getting on base, Boston did nothing particularly well in 2006. Over the last three seasons, Fenway has increased run scoring by roughly 6.0%, so that tends to make the pitching staff look a little worse than it really is and, conversely, the offense look a little better than it really is. With that said, run prevention — i.e., the rotation, the bullpen and the defense — was the primary shortcoming in 2006.
To the end of improving the run-prevention corps, the Red Sox have, of course, imported Matsuzaka. Any player making the leap stateside is a bit of an unknown quantity, but Matsuzaka figures to be a certifiable force. Expect 200 or so innings and a comfortably sub-4.00 ERA. He's just what the Sox need. Rounding out the rest of the rotation will be Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and, in all likelihood, Jonathan Papelbon. Beckett was never an ideal fit for Fenway, but he figures to improve on that 5.01 ERA he posted last season.
Schilling should be effective, Wakefield as a starter is a reliable purveyor of league-average innings, and Papelbon has enough of a repertoire to pass muster as a member of the rotation. The keys will be getting improvement (and health) from Beckett and getting a smooth transition (and health) out of Papelbon. Overall, expect a much better rotation in 2007.
As for the bullpen, Hideki Okajima should provide reliable innings from the left side, and Joel Pineiro, provided he concentrates on the pitches he throws well (four-seamer, slider), should be a capable closer. Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez return, Brendan Donnelly will bolster the right-handed depth, and one-time closer of the future Craig Hansen should improve on his awful 2006 campaign.
One factor to be considered is that the Boston pen will be without the tremendous innings Papelbon gave them last season. While Pineiro figures to be effective in his new role, he won't be as great as Papelbon was. The additions of Pineiro, Okajima and Donnelly will be offset to a degree by the loss of Papelbon's innings, but overall expect a modestly improved relief unit.
The troublesome defense, meanwhile, might also be a tad better. J.D. Drew (given good health, of course) is a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder, and the infield defense should also be significantly upgraded with the addition of Julio Lugo at short and the promotion of second-base prospect Dustin Pedroia.
Offensively, the Sox have some superficial appeal, but they ranked only ninth in the AL last season in runs scored on the road. As well, the total of 820 runs is the worst such mark by a Boston team since 2001. So this is where Drew and Julio Lugo come in.
Boston right fielders last season combined for a .265 AVG/.352 OBP/.425 SLG, and Drew, if healthy, should provide substantial improvement over those numbers. Red Sox shortstops, meanwhile, authored a cumulative 2006 batting line of .250 AVG/.306 OBP/.368 SLG. Lugo should have no problem bettering those numbers. His performance declined after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, but Lugo's injured finger almost certainly played a role. There's a very real chance that in 2007 he could be the AL's best shortstop not named Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada or Carlos Guillen.
Elsewhere, Pedroia should roughly approximate Mark Loretta's 2006 level of production, and Coco Crisp is poised for a rebound season. On the whole, the Sox's offense should be better.
Overall, it's worth noting that Boston in 2006 was actually fortunate to finish with that 86-76 record. After all, that narrowly negative run differential suggests they should've been a .500 team. So while improvements have been made this winter, Boston's baseline might be lower than you think.
That brings us to the contingencies. Schilling and Jason Varitek must stave off age-related decline, Drew must stay healthy, Crisp must revert to his 2005 form, Matsuzaka must live up to the press clippings, and Papelbon and Pineiro must adapt to their new roles. If those things happen, the Red Sox should make the post-season. However, it's highly unlikely they'll be able to best the Yankees for the AL East title. The Yankees are simply a better team. Of course, maybe a Boston signing of Roger Clemens could change that ・p>On the Wild Card front, the Sox will likely be competing with the powerhouses of the AL Central. However, what's in their favor is that the unbalanced schedule means a high level of attrition among the Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Indians. That leaves an opening for the revamped Red Sox.
---
松坂を含む先発投手陣は、確かに良いようだが、岡島の活躍には疑問符が付く。
それにしても、アメリカ人は、必要もないデータを作るのが好きな人種だ。優位性を証明するために、無理をしてまで、新しいデータを作るのはおろか。
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