The following is from a book of conversation between Masayuki Takayama and Emi Kawaguchi-Mahn, published on 10/30/2016 under the title Japan, US, Germany - Which countries will survive ten years from now?
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but also for people around the world.
The future of the Japanese economy is bright, but ......
Kawaguchi.
What are your thoughts on the Japanese economy?
Takayama
The Japanese economy has developed with a tremendous "spirit of rationalization" and massive "wisdom.
In addition, Japanese people have a "diligence" that foreigners can never catch up with.
Therefore, the future of the Japanese economy is bright.
Kawaguchi
I am not so optimistic, though. ......
Takayama
In considering the future of the Japanese economy, "marine resources" is probably the critical point.
Recently, we have learned that a certain amount of oil and natural gas reserves can be expected in the Japan Sea and that hydrothermal vents on the Izu Islands contain resources (gold and other ores).
Then, there are similar resources on Okinotorishima Island.
Kawaguchi.
It is true that the longer we look at marine resources, the more critical they become.
That is why China is now seriously trying to acquire them.
However, drilling technology is complicated.
Takayama
Taking the Senkakus as an example, China has been moving in after a survey by a United Nations agency revealed that the area is a treasure trove of oil and natural gas.
There is nothing on the Chinese mainland but the "Great Wall of China" (laughs).
That is why they have been working hard to acquire surrounding countries with resources, such as Uyghur, Tibet, and Manchuria.
Kawaguchi.
China is a resource-poor country with an overgrowing population.
Water resources are exceedingly scarce.
Takayama
That's right.
China is also making purchases in Australia, but it is seriously trying to access Japan's marine resources right in front of its eyes.
The media, which I will discuss in the next chapter, supports this foolish policy, but there is still a part of it that says, "To destroy Japan, just take away its energy.
So, in that sense, "destroy nuclear power" is a grave threat.
The "Energy Issue" Affects Economic Growth
Kawaguchi
I have been following the "energy issue" for several years, and I think it is hopelessly wrong that Japan is shutting down nuclear power plants.
Those calling for stopping nuclear power often use Germany as an example, but that perception is wrong.
They say, "If Germany can do it, why can't we do it in Japan?" But all Germany has said is, "We will shut down all nuclear power plants by 2022.
No one but Japan has committed the suicidal act of shutting down all nuclear power plants at once, which have no problems and have played an essential role in the electricity supply.
Safety measures could have been taken while the plants were still operating.
Every other country has done so.
Another big mistake is to think that even if we get rid of nuclear power, we can make up for it with renewable energy.
Even the Nikkei and the Asahi Shimbun write as if it is possible.
But it is "impossible.
Even in Germany, it is not possible at all.
There are various types of renewable energy, but the current mainstays are "solar" and "wind.
Both of them seem like they are always available for free, but they are unstable because they depend on the weather.
It is a critical problem, and no amount of panels or wind turbines can solve it.
Large-capacity storage batteries are currently not yet in a state where they can be practically tamed.
It would be better understood if we replaced them with smaller units.
For example, each household puts panels on its roof to generate electricity.
But no matter how huge the storage batteries are, there will be no electricity if bad weather continues for a week.
But when that happens, those who boasted about generating their electricity can rest assured, "Don't worry, we'll use regular electricity when the time comes.
In other words, they regard the existing electric grid as a backup.
Moreover, they need to bear the cost of transmission facilities for this purpose.
From the electric power company's point of view, it is necessary to maintain power lines and always have them on standby "in case of an emergency.
Since they cannot store electricity, they must always monitor the weather and consumption trends, anticipate "emergencies" that may occur, and be ready to respond immediately.
And yet, since they are free pinch hitters who are often out of action, they are unprofitable.
In the end, all of the electric power companies in Germany are in the red.
Takayama.
That kind of thing is not reported at all in Japan.
Kawaguchi
On June 7 of this year, the Nikkei newspaper reported, "In Germany, the ratio of renewable energies has exceeded 30%, and the dependence on coal-fired power is gradually decreasing.
It is bizarre.
It is so wrong that it could be called propaganda.
Thirty percent is the same as saying, for example, "There are many millimeters of precipitation per year.
But if all that rain falls in three months, causing flooding, and then there is sunshine for the next nine months, it doesn't help.
That is what is happening in Germany.
When the weather is good, everyone generates electricity all at once, and because it is all purchased at a fixed price, with priority, there is an excess of electricity, and the market price of electricity plummets.
On top of that, the excess electricity has to go somewhere, so they even put money on other countries to take it back.
Of course, when we need more, we pay to buy it from a neighboring country.
Even if the amount of electricity generated for a year were all added up to 30%, that figure would be meaningless!
Takayama.
It is wasteful and uneconomic.
It won't last for long.
Kawaguchi
To begin with, there is a "pace-load power supply" for electricity supply.
It is a reliable power source that is there all year round, all seasons, all weather, day and night.
It is the foundation of the power system. Without it, an industrial nation cannot exist.
Until now, both Germany and Japan have used nuclear power.
Japan is now using thermal power. Of course, it is absolutely impossible to do so with renewable energy.
So now Germany is rushing to build more than ten thermal power plants.
Of course, this will put the C02 problem back on track.
No one is reporting it, though.
Takayama
It's a kind of "freedom not to report" peculiar to the mass media.
This article continues.
2024/6/12 in Kanazawa The Man Who Measures Clouds
