The following is a continuation of the previous chapter.
Do "countries with large populations develop"?
Shibayama
I would like you to do something about the common phrase, "capture the growth of Asia."
It is not like imperialism, and what does "incorporate" mean?
I think it is a very "inward-looking" and unrefined phrase.
There is also the question of whether the growth of emerging Asian countries will continue to progress smoothly in the future.
The theory is that "a large population means a large number of consumers so that they will develop," but there will be no hardship if a large population means development.
If consumption is vigorous, current account deficits will likely occur, disparities will widen, and national solidarity will become problematic.
Populous countries have disadvantages that equal or outweigh the advantages.
In fact, even Japan was a populous country when it opened its doors in the 19th century (33 million in Japan in 1860, compared to 28 million in the UK and 31 million in the US).
Japan started at a low stage of development but had a large population, and it has come this far through many hardships.
If development occurs because a country has a large population, then why did capitalism develop in countries with small European populations, such as the Netherlands and the United Kingdom?
England is a small country compared to France, and until the Industrial Revolution, it was nothing more than a frontier country.
The same goes for the United States.
So, what is essential is not the number but the people's political and economic organizational power, which is the driving force of development.
If the population is too large, the country will not be cohesive.
If the population is too young, the political system, known as the "course bulge, " will quickly become unstable.
Emerging countries with large populations will be prone to unpredictable turmoil as growth slows.
In fact, prewar Japan also had a hard time feeding its population, and just remembering that history should not make us optimistic about the future of emerging countries.
Japanese people have forgotten the history of how they developed themselves.
The theory of reform in Japan may be somewhat misplaced because we are unable to properly evaluate Japan's progress to date.
2024/7/5 in Okayama
