Why I'm not gripped by 'irrational despair' over the world's stock markets
（世界の株式市場の「非合理的な絶望」に縛られないわけ）
ROGER BOOTLE
Telegraph: 14 FEBRUARY 2016 • 5:00PM
（世界の株式市場の「非合理的な絶望」に縛られないわけ）
ROGER BOOTLE
Telegraph: 14 FEBRUARY 2016 • 5:00PM
Regular readers would not normally look to me as a source of optimism. Yet, in the midst of the current all-enveloping gloom about the world economic outlook, although not exactly optimistic, I find myself nothing like as pessimistic as the financial markets appear to be.
いつもの読者諸氏なら僕を楽観的だとは思わないよね。
だけど世界経済の展望について悲観が圧倒的な今の状況で、正確には楽観ってわけじゃないんだけど、金融市場って見かけほど悲観的とは思えないんだよね。
Their gloom has started to affect most commentators and could, I suppose, lead to a widespread fall in confidence in the real economy which could then produce, unnecessarily, the very thing that the markets are worried about.
あの憂鬱は殆どのコメンテーターに影響し始めましたね。
で、実体経済の信頼低下も拡大しちゃうんじゃないのかなと。
で、市場が心配してる正にそのことをいたずらに実現させちゃうんじゃないのかよと。
So, are the markets right to be worried? Supposedly, they look into the future in a cold, calculating, rational way. Not for them the swings of emotion that affect human beings in the rest of their life. Well, that's what the financial textbooks say.
ってことで、市場は心配して然るべきなんですかね？
市場は冷徹に、合理的に、未来を検討してるはずだよね。
人に一生影響を与える感情の変化じゃないよね。
まあ、じゃないって金融の教科書には書いてあるんだけどさ。
Yet we know that markets can sometimes succumb to euphoria. Former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, once referred to their "irrational exuberance".
だけどマーケットが時々歓喜に負けちゃうってわかってますよね。
元FRB議長のアラン・グリーンスパン氏なんて、市場の「非合理的な活況」とかなんとか言ってたでしょ。
They were irrationally exuberant about tech stocks during the internet boom and later they were irrationally exuberant about both the American property market and the ability of derivatives and various forms of financial engineering to magic risk out of the financial system.
市場ってITバブルの間はIT銘柄で非合理的に活況しちゃって、その後は米不動産市場と金融システムからリスクをないないしちゃうデリバティブやら色んな金融エンジニアリングで非合理的に活況しちゃってたわけです。
But if the markets are capable of irrational exuberance then they should surely also be capable of irrational despair. I think that is what is happening at the moment. Every item of news seems to be interpreted bearishly.
でも市場に非合理的な活況が可能なら、非合理的な絶望だって出来んじゃんってわけで。
それが今現在進行形なんだと思うのね。
どのニュースもこのニュースもベアな解釈しかされてないっぽい。
So, when the Swedish central bank last week cut interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy, that was interpreted as a signal that things must be really bad.
ってことで、スウェーデン中銀が先週経済活性化のために金利を引き下げた時、あれ、何か物凄くヤバいに違いないよねってシグナルだと思われちゃった。
Ditto each fall in oil prices. Just as we thought we were clawing our way back after the disaster of 2008/9, we are now experiencing a succession of false dusks.
同じことは原油価格下落の度に言えるよね。
2008-2009年の大惨事からえっちらおっちら立ち直りつつある、とか思ってるタイミングの今、期待裏切られまくりだもん。
What is the current gloom of market participants and commentators founded on?
今、市場参加者だの評論家だのがうぞーんとなってる理由って何よ？
I suspect that it is partly a reaction to their failure to anticipate the financial crisis and the subsequent collapse of output. They are determined not to be caught out again.
金融危機とそれに続く生産崩壊を予期し損ねちゃったことへのリアクションもあるかなーなんて思ってるんですけどね。
二度とやられるかっ！ってすごかったもんね。
But if we are looking for solid reasons for pessimism rather than psychological analysis, I suppose most people's answer would be the trouble in China.
だけど心理分析よりも悲観の確かな理由を探すとすると、殆どの人は中国問題って答えるんでしょうな。
Yet all that has happened in China is a slowdown in the growth rate. This slowdown has stopped well short of a recession and doesn't look as though it is going to develop into one.
とはいえ、中国で起こったことって成長率の鈍化だけじゃん。
この鈍化だって不況の遥か手前で止まったし、不況に変身する気配すらないし。
Indeed, several indicators suggest that the Chinese economy has stabilised, albeit at a much lower growth rate than a few years ago.
そうそう、幾つかの指標なんて、中国経済は安定しましたって示してんじゃん、2-3年前よりは遥かに成長率が低くなったとはいえ。
Over and above China, of course, but partly associated with it, there has been a collapse in oil and commodity prices.
中国以外にも、もちろん中国ともちょっとは関連してるけど、原油暴落とコモディティ暴落があるよね。
This has brought severe pain to those companies and countries that produce these things.
この手のブツを作ってる会社だの国だのには、これは強烈に痛いよね。
In principle, there should be offsetting gains for their consumers but, as I have written before, these gains are small and widely dispersed. Consequently, even if they add up to the same amount in total, they don't make as much impact.
原則、消費者が得してゼロサムなはずなんだけど、前も書いた通り、こういう得って大したことない上にひろーく分散しちゃってるから。
だから全部足したら同じになるけど、インパクトはえらく違うってわけ。
And there is a clear asymmetry with regard to solvency and credit risk.
それから、ソルベンシー・リスクとクレジット・リスクについては、きっぱり対称的だね。
Umpteen companies, and even some countries, could be sent over the edge by the fall in oil prices but nowhere will a default or bankruptcy be averted by the fact that oil consumers' real incomes have been boosted by a trivial amount.
掃いて捨てるほどの会社、それから幾つかの国まで、原油安で逝きかけましたが、石油を消費する側の実質所得がほんのちょっとだけ増えたって事実でデフォルトやらオトウサンやらが回避出来たとこなんてないから。
Even so, low oil prices are providing a boost to many countries, including the UK.
だとしても、原油安は英国を含む沢山の国に恩恵をもたらしているわけです。
Recently, another ingredient has entered the mix – namely the apparent weakness of major banks.
最近じゃここにまた新しい材料が…メガバンの弱りっぷりです。
This seems to have its root in the supposed adverse consequences of negative interest rates for bank profitability, possible exposure to those companies and countries that have lost as a result of the fall in oil and commodity prices, and general exposure to the softness of the world economy.
これの根っこはどうやら、銀行の業績に対するマイナス金利の悪影響とか、原油コモディティ安で損した企業や国へのエクスポージャーの可能性とか、世界経済軟化への全般的なエクスポージャーにありそうですね。
In fact, although the banking system remains weak in several countries, there has been a good deal of progress since the crash.
事実、幾つかの国では銀行システムが弱ったままだけど、クラッシュ以降、結構改善されてたからね。
Moreover, the bank lending and money supply figures do not suggest that the system as a whole is in crisis.
それに銀行の貸出とかマネーサプライのデータを見ても、システム全体が危機に見舞われてるとは思えないし。
Moreover, the world economy continues to grow by between two and 3pc per annum.
あと、世界経済は年率2-3%のペースで成長し続けてるし。
Admittedly, this is slower than the rates of growth registered before the 2008/9 crash.
確かに2008-2009年のクラッシュ前よりは鈍化してますよ。
Aggregate demand has not grown strongly enough since then to return the world economy to normal. But the reasons for this are different from what is commonly supposed.
あれからこっちの総需要の伸びは世界経済を平常化するには足りないな。
でもこの理由は一般的に思われている理由と違うのよ。
The Chinese slowdown is only one contributor, and indeed a minor one for us here in the UK. British exports to China, although growing rapidly, are small. Ireland is a bigger market for us than China.
中国の鈍化なんて一つの要因に過ぎないわけで、しかも英国の僕らにとっては些末な要因なのね。
英国の対中輸出は急成長中だけどちっぽけなもんだし。
アイルランドの方が中国よりデカい市場だよ。
An important source of weakness in the world economy is the eurozone, which has still not got back to the pre-crisis level of output.
世界経済の重要弱点はユーロ圏ですな。
ここは相変わらず生産が危機前レベルまで戻ってない。
By contrast, the US and UK are 10pc and 7pc respectively above their pre-crisis levels. Imagine how much better the world would now look if euro-zone GDP had managed the same increase in GDP as the US, or even the UK.
対称的に、米国と英国は危機前レベル比それぞれ+10%、+7%です。
ユーロ圏のGDPが米国並、いや、英国並にでも良いから、上手くやってくれてたら、世界はどんだけマシになるか…。
Admittedly, it did manage growth of about 1.5pc last year – which was good by its low standards – but it now seems to be slipping back.
確かに去年は1.5%くらい成長しましたよ（あそこのレベルで言えば良くやったって感じ）。
でも今はまた逆戻りっぽいじゃないですか。
We all know why the eurozone has been so weak. It is a combination of the stranglehold on the weaker peripheral countries wrought by a loss of competitiveness, excessive debt levels and fiscal stringency; the persistent tendency to underspend in Germany and the Netherlands; and the pronounced structural problems in France.
皆わかってるんですよ、どうしてユーロ圏があれほどへたれかって。
競争力喪失と借金の山と緊縮財政でボロボロになった弱小周辺国の抑圧と、ドイツとオランダのドケチと、フランスのあからさまな構造問題のコンボなの。
The first two are a direct result of the euro.
最初の二つはもろにユーロのせいですわ。
It is now widely acknowledged that the euro has been an economic disaster for Europe.
ユーロはヨーロッパにとって経済的大惨事だって、今じゃみーんな知ってるもんね。
It is still not widely perceived, though, that it is also a leading factor behind the weakness of the global economy. The eurozone economy is larger than China's.
でもみーんながまだ知らないのは、これが世界経済がヘロヘロな主な理由でもあるよってこと。
ユーロ圏の経済は中国よりデカいんだよ。
Moreover, its current account surplus is larger too. Why aren't more people banging on about eurozone weakness, rather than China, as the reason for the world's travails?
それからね、経常黒字もデカ過ぎ。
なんでもっと沢山の人が、世界が苦労してんのはお前がヘタレてるからだろって、ユーロ圏を叩かないんだよ。
中国じゃないだろ。
Mind you, this particular part of the world's problems does not look likely to be fixed any time soon.
あのね、世界の問題のここの部分って、さくっと解決されそうにゃ見えないのよね。
Perhaps I have talked myself into becoming a paid-up member of the pessimistic tendency after all.
もしかすると、僕、結局、自分から悲観組のメンバーになっちゃったかもね…。
