The following is from an article by Nobukatsu Kanehara, former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary and Distinguished Visiting Professor at Doshisha University, which appeared in yesterday's issue of Sankei Shimbun's "Seiron" titled "Japan Needs a Nuclear Strategy Now.
A must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide!
On June 5, North Korea launched ballistic missiles from multiple locations.
At least one of the missiles had an irregular trajectory that missile defenses could not defend.
Although the people of North Korea live in extreme poverty, Kim Jong-un has been busy demonstrating his country's nuclear and missile capabilities.
North Korea's nuclear and missile programs violate UN Security Council resolutions and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
It submitted a resolution condemning North Korea to the Security Council, but China and Russia vetoed it.
It is time to look at reality.
The P5, consisting of the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China, has been given a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
In reality, however, the P5 is nothing more than a mishmash of the liberal U.S., U.K., France, and the totalitarian states of China and Russia.
President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine revealed Russia's true nature.
China, too, has turned to expansionism through club diplomacy.
The Security Council has once again been broken, just as it had been during the Cold War.
The postwar order is collapsing.
Under the aegis of China and Russia, North Korea's nuclear and missile development will not stop.
Japan should take a hard look at this reality.
North Korea is probably still steadily preparing for its seventh nuclear test.
China, which has the most significant influence over North Korea, shows no intention of seriously trying to stop North Korea.
For China, North Korea's nuclear weapons are nothing to fear.
Instead, China fears North Korea, which does not like the pressure of an assertive China, will side with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.
In fact, during the Clinton administration, North Korea almost went as far as jointly developing a nuclear power plant in Yeongbyeon in cooperation with Japan, the U.S., South Korea, and other countries.
The Korean Peninsula is a strategic point for China.
Since the Opium War, China's enemies have not been the horsemen coming over the Great Wall of China, but the maritime powers of Europe, the United States, and Japan, who invaded from Chaohai Bay and overran Beijing.
As Li Hongzhang, the Qing dynasty's chief minister, saw it, the Korean peninsula, the Liaodong peninsula, and the Shandong peninsula were strategic points for defending Chaohai Bay.
In the first place, Joseon had been a tributary state since the Unified Silla Dynasty.
The Korean War finally brought back the northern half of the Korean Peninsula.
China probably believes North Korea will not be handed over to the West at any cost.
The nuclear and missile tests are suitable for North Korea to widen its distance from the West.
Don't give in to the nuclear threat.
China is not about to give in to nuclear intimidation and is increasing its nuclear arsenal.
Some predict that its nuclear arsenal will reach 800 warheads within another ten years.
Under the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), the U.S. and Russia's deployment of strategic nuclear warheads is limited to 1,550 warheads.
There is no framework for mutual inspection, confidence building, arms control, and disarmament with China, as the U.S. and Russia have heard.
President Xi Jinping's China has made Taiwan's "liberation" a national and party policy.
The lesson that Japan should learn from the war in Ukraine is that Russia committed aggression and threatened to use small-scale nuclear weapons.
Similarly, China may aim at decoupling Japan and the United States with nuclear threats in the event of an emergency in Taiwan.
It is because the United States can be easily defeated if Japan leaves the front line.
The U.S. will clearly state that it will retaliate with nuclear weapons against a nuclear attack on Tokyo or a nuclear attack on a U.S. military base.
However, if nuclear weapons obliterated Tokyo, the U.S. would enter into ceasefire talks with China.
With Tokyo gone, Japan has no value as an ally.
Or, China might threaten to nuke the bases of the Self-Defense Forces on remote islands.
The destructive power of a small nuclear weapon could be less than that of the Hiroshima-type atomic bomb.
The U.S. military would say that it could aim for victory by any other means without using nuclear weapons.
Militarily, this is reasonable, but the public would panic.
Can the prime minister then tell the people he will not yield to nuclear intimidation?
Not to be dependent on the protection of the U.S.
Now is the time for Japan to have a nuclear strategy.
Japan is now in the most dangerous nuclear valley in the world.
Under the NPT, Japan cannot possess its nuclear weapons.
Then, Japan has no choice but to rely entirely on the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
Unless Japan asks the U.S. to guarantee more than 100% security, the U.S. will not make any further efforts.
Japan should demand that the U.S. reinstate submarine-deployed intermediate-range nuclear missiles, which the U.S. discarded after the Cold War.
China is said to have 1,600 medium- and short-range missiles aimed at Japan.
The U.S. has no intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
It should overcome this asymmetry.
The nuclear Tomahawk is a weapon for the U.S. Carrier Task Force, but the U.S. should revive similar missiles and have the U.S. declare that it will also use them to defend Japan.
Japan should modify its three non-nuclear principles and allow U.S. nuclear-capable submarines to call port from the front.
It should go even further and consider having intermediate-range maritime nuclear weapons aboard Maritime Self-Defense Force submarines to play a part in the U.S. nuclear strategy.
Nuclear shuffling should be on the chopping block of fierce national debate.
Japan must also seriously address the introduction of nuclear submarines.
The Australian Navy has decided to introduce U.S.-made nuclear submarines.
Japan should follow its example.
Japan should not rely on the U.S. for protection any longer.
Japan is the front-line state.
Japan's survival depends on the nuclear issue.
A must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide!
On June 5, North Korea launched ballistic missiles from multiple locations.
At least one of the missiles had an irregular trajectory that missile defenses could not defend.
Although the people of North Korea live in extreme poverty, Kim Jong-un has been busy demonstrating his country's nuclear and missile capabilities.
North Korea's nuclear and missile programs violate UN Security Council resolutions and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
It submitted a resolution condemning North Korea to the Security Council, but China and Russia vetoed it.
It is time to look at reality.
The P5, consisting of the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China, has been given a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
In reality, however, the P5 is nothing more than a mishmash of the liberal U.S., U.K., France, and the totalitarian states of China and Russia.
President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine revealed Russia's true nature.
China, too, has turned to expansionism through club diplomacy.
The Security Council has once again been broken, just as it had been during the Cold War.
The postwar order is collapsing.
Under the aegis of China and Russia, North Korea's nuclear and missile development will not stop.
Japan should take a hard look at this reality.
North Korea is probably still steadily preparing for its seventh nuclear test.
China, which has the most significant influence over North Korea, shows no intention of seriously trying to stop North Korea.
For China, North Korea's nuclear weapons are nothing to fear.
Instead, China fears North Korea, which does not like the pressure of an assertive China, will side with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.
In fact, during the Clinton administration, North Korea almost went as far as jointly developing a nuclear power plant in Yeongbyeon in cooperation with Japan, the U.S., South Korea, and other countries.
The Korean Peninsula is a strategic point for China.
Since the Opium War, China's enemies have not been the horsemen coming over the Great Wall of China, but the maritime powers of Europe, the United States, and Japan, who invaded from Chaohai Bay and overran Beijing.
As Li Hongzhang, the Qing dynasty's chief minister, saw it, the Korean peninsula, the Liaodong peninsula, and the Shandong peninsula were strategic points for defending Chaohai Bay.
In the first place, Joseon had been a tributary state since the Unified Silla Dynasty.
The Korean War finally brought back the northern half of the Korean Peninsula.
China probably believes North Korea will not be handed over to the West at any cost.
The nuclear and missile tests are suitable for North Korea to widen its distance from the West.
Don't give in to the nuclear threat.
China is not about to give in to nuclear intimidation and is increasing its nuclear arsenal.
Some predict that its nuclear arsenal will reach 800 warheads within another ten years.
Under the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), the U.S. and Russia's deployment of strategic nuclear warheads is limited to 1,550 warheads.
There is no framework for mutual inspection, confidence building, arms control, and disarmament with China, as the U.S. and Russia have heard.
President Xi Jinping's China has made Taiwan's "liberation" a national and party policy.
The lesson that Japan should learn from the war in Ukraine is that Russia committed aggression and threatened to use small-scale nuclear weapons.
Similarly, China may aim at decoupling Japan and the United States with nuclear threats in the event of an emergency in Taiwan.
It is because the United States can be easily defeated if Japan leaves the front line.
The U.S. will clearly state that it will retaliate with nuclear weapons against a nuclear attack on Tokyo or a nuclear attack on a U.S. military base.
However, if nuclear weapons obliterated Tokyo, the U.S. would enter into ceasefire talks with China.
With Tokyo gone, Japan has no value as an ally.
Or, China might threaten to nuke the bases of the Self-Defense Forces on remote islands.
The destructive power of a small nuclear weapon could be less than that of the Hiroshima-type atomic bomb.
The U.S. military would say that it could aim for victory by any other means without using nuclear weapons.
Militarily, this is reasonable, but the public would panic.
Can the prime minister then tell the people he will not yield to nuclear intimidation?
Not to be dependent on the protection of the U.S.
Now is the time for Japan to have a nuclear strategy.
Japan is now in the most dangerous nuclear valley in the world.
Under the NPT, Japan cannot possess its nuclear weapons.
Then, Japan has no choice but to rely entirely on the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
Unless Japan asks the U.S. to guarantee more than 100% security, the U.S. will not make any further efforts.
Japan should demand that the U.S. reinstate submarine-deployed intermediate-range nuclear missiles, which the U.S. discarded after the Cold War.
China is said to have 1,600 medium- and short-range missiles aimed at Japan.
The U.S. has no intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
It should overcome this asymmetry.
The nuclear Tomahawk is a weapon for the U.S. Carrier Task Force, but the U.S. should revive similar missiles and have the U.S. declare that it will also use them to defend Japan.
Japan should modify its three non-nuclear principles and allow U.S. nuclear-capable submarines to call port from the front.
It should go even further and consider having intermediate-range maritime nuclear weapons aboard Maritime Self-Defense Force submarines to play a part in the U.S. nuclear strategy.
Nuclear shuffling should be on the chopping block of fierce national debate.
Japan must also seriously address the introduction of nuclear submarines.
The Australian Navy has decided to introduce U.S.-made nuclear submarines.
Japan should follow its example.
Japan should not rely on the U.S. for protection any longer.
Japan is the front-line state.
Japan's survival depends on the nuclear issue.
