I had already mentioned that I was astonished when Mr. Taishi Sugiyama's article appeared in the Sankei Shimbun the other day.
The following is from a feature article in the current issue of the monthly magazine WiLL titled "Inviting a crisis in Japan, The Decarbonization Trap - China behind it," which features a conversation between Yoshiko Sakurai and Daishi Sugiyama, Research Director of the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people all over the world.
As a friend of mine, who is an avid reader, likes to say, "There is nothing cheaper than a book," and these monthly magazines are a perfect demonstration of that every month.
It is a miracle that for the price of one lunch, it can get a complete picture of Japan's realities and truths and the world.
I will let the world know as much as I can.
Is it okay to "don't talk about human rights and security" in return for "cooperating with global warming countermeasures"?
The Obama Administration's Big Failure
Sakurai
On his first day in office, President Biden signed an executive order reinstating the Paris Agreement, which the U.S. withdrew from under the Trump administration.
The Biden administration has made it clear that it will focus on environmental policies. Still, I am concerned that it will use the card of China's cooperation in combating global warming to extract concessions from the U.S. on human rights issues and security.
Sugiyama
It was the Obama administration that set a bad precedent.
Toward the end of his term, Mr. Obama turned his attention to the issue of global warming in an attempt to leave a "legacy" that will remain in human history.
To secure an international agreement, it was necessary to create something beyond the Kyoto Protocol, in which the U.S. and China did not participate.
The Obama administration negotiated with China and set a numerical target for CO2 reduction in June 2015.
This triggered a surge of momentum for an international agreement, and the Paris Agreement was reached in December of the same year.
Sakurai
In response to the Obama administration's enthusiasm for the Paris Agreement, China spent about two years intensifying its actions in the South China Sea.
It took seven atolls (Fiery Cross Reef, Johnson South Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Hughes Reef, Gaben Reef, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef), built artificial islands, and even built 3,000-meter runways, hangars, and radar facilities.
Sugiyama
If the Obama administration had taken a hard-line stance against China, China would have withdrawn its participation in the Paris Agreement. Developing countries with close ties to China could have joined in.
Mr. Obama, whose hands and environmental issues tied feet, had no choice but to sit back and watch China's expansion.
Obama's "selfishness" in wanting to leave a legacy has cost Vietnam and the Philippines their lives.
Sakurai
To analyze China's strategy toward the US, we need to go back to September 2013 when Obama said that the US was not the "world's police.
At that time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons to kill more than 100,000 of his own people.
In response, the Obama administration declared that a "red line," or a line that should not cross, had been crossed.
Despite this, it did not take the step of military intervention.
While the U.S. remained unmoved, Russia made one preemptive move after another, proposing international control of chemical weapons.
President Putin, who supported the Assad regime, attacked the anti-Assad forces under the guise of "eradicating terrorists.
This has deepened the Middle East's turmoil, created many refugees, cornered Europe, and caused the UK to leave the EU.
Mr. Obama's weakness in the Middle East triggered a change in the post-Cold War international order with the U.S. at its core.
Sugiyama
Around the same time, China started to look down on the U.S. explicitly, wasn't it?
Sakurai
That's right.
Two months after Mr. Obama announced that he would no longer be the "world's policeman," China suddenly established an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, requiring aircraft flying within the zone to submit their flight plans to the Chinese side, and announcing that China would "take defensive emergency measures" against aircraft that did not comply.
The Obama administration succumbed to the lawless demand equal to threat and ordered the civil aviation companies to respect China's intention.
Since then, China will intensify the South China Sea action and the East China Sea while finding out that "the United States will not say anything if it goes this far.
Issue Linkage
Sakurai
The Biden administration has declared a goal of "zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
Mr. Biden was Vice President in the Obama administration, and John Kerry, Presidential Special Envoy on Climate Change, was Secretary of State.
Besides, Gina McCarthy, who served as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the Obama administration, was appointed as Assistant to the President for Domestic Climate Change.
It is fine to tackle global warming issues, but won't we fall into the Obama administration's rut in China's relations?
Sugiyama
Mr. Kerry has stated that "issues such as access to markets for stolen intellectual property, the South China Sea, etc., will never be traded for the issue of global warming.
However, there is a common tool in diplomacy called "issue linkage.
The idea is that when you are negotiating on an issue that your opponent considers important, you can restrain his aggressive behavior on another issue.
A typical example of this is China's military expansion in the South China Sea, as the Obama administration was eager to bring the Paris Agreement to fruition.
Sakurai
The Biden administration has made it clear that it will make climate change a pillar of its diplomacy and national security.
I get the impression that global warming will take precedence over everything else, but this could put the US in an inferior position vis-a-vis China from the start.
Sugiyama
The day after Mr. Kerry's press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian made the following statement at a press conference.
China is ready to cooperate with the United States and the international community on climate change. Nevertheless, I would like to emphasize that China-U.S. cooperation in specific areas is not like flowers blooming in a greenhouse despite the cold winter weather and is closely related to bilateral relations as a whole. We cannot expect China to understand and support us in bilateral and global affairs if we blatantly interfere in China's internal affairs to the detriment of China's interests.
Environmental NGOs Cannot Speak Out Against China.
Sugiyama
This year is going to be the "Year of the Environment."
The Biden administration has already announced that it will hold a climate change summit on April 22, "Earth Day," inviting major emitters, including China.
After that, global warming will be on the agenda of the G7, G20, and the UN General Assembly.
As a final touch, COP26 will be held in the UK in November.
There, countries will negotiate to raise the CO2 reduction target as an agenda item and aim for an international agreement.
In the negotiations, I believe that China will show a cooperative stance on global warming, but therein lies the trap.
In return for cooperation on environmental issues, China will demand that we keep our mouths shut on human rights issues and military expansion.
Sakurai
China has also set a goal of "zero CO2 emissions by 2060.
It seems that China's intention is not to stop global warming but to use it as a card in international politics.
Sugiyama
You are right.
In addition to aiming for issue linkage, restricting the economy of the liberal camp through global warming countermeasures will give the Chinese economy a relative advantage.
Even with similar goals, the destructive power on the economy is far different.
Sakurai
What do you mean by that?
Sugiyama
Environmental NGOs have been very influential in international efforts to address environmental issues.
They are descended from those who used to sympathize with socialism.
It is easy to understand that planning and managing the economy by restricting individuals' and companies' activities is a socialist idea, which negates capitalism.
Because of this historical background, environmental NGOs exert intense pressure on the companies and governments of liberal countries while being lenient on the Chinese government and companies.
Sakurai
Does this mean that even if China fails to achieve its targets, it will not face international criticism as Europe, the United States, or Japan?
Sugiyama
Yes.
A simple example is Greta Thunberg, the "environmental girl."
You can see the shadows of the adults in environmental NGOs behind her, but Greta rarely directs her criticism at China; instead, she mainly targets the US and Europe.
Elsewhere, Greenpeace has said that "the priority given to sustainability will cement China's legacy in the world." The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has said that "the new goals announced by President Xi Jinping reflect China's unwavering support for and decisive steps further to strengthen the world's fight against global warming.
Even Barbara Finamore of the Natural Resources Defense Council has written a book titled "Will China Save the Planet?" in which she praises China's environmental policies.
This article continues
