This analysis reveals that the Trump administration never saw North Korea as the primary threat. Instead, U.S. military officials identified China as the true strategic adversary, with Russia acting as a disruptor.
The delay in striking North Korea stemmed from Obama-era defense cuts, which Trump sought to reverse with a massive budget increase.
The North Korea Crisis Was Only a Prelude—The Real Target Is China, with Russia in Tandem
March 13, 2018, 10:47:42 JST | Journal
This is a continuation of the previous chapter.
(All emphasis in the body text is mine.)
What is the Trump administration’s true perspective on North Korea?
I visited the U.S. last fall and had in-depth discussions with U.S. military personnel, but I doubt whether Japan fully understands their strategic thinking.
The U.S. military is not solely focused on North Korea.
They view a conflict with North Korea as merely a prelude—the main battlefield is China, and they anticipate Russia will act in concert.
Every American military official I spoke with said the same thing:
"We currently face two major threats in the Asia-Pacific region.
In the short term, North Korea.
In the long term, China’s willingness to use military power to protect its national interests.
North Korea’s threat is purely military—it lacks economic power, so it's not as difficult to handle as China.
What complicates the North Korean situation is Russia, which is also working to create confusion in Ukraine.
Because China possesses substantial economic power, military force is crucial—but even more important is containing China through diplomacy, intelligence, and economic pressure.
China often makes strategic moves while others are distracted by different crises, so we must remain alert."
Why, then, did the Trump administration not strike North Korea last year?
There are roughly four reasons.
The first is what I call the “Obama problem.”
Since the Clinton administration in 1994, U.S. defense spending had been on a downward trajectory.
Under President Obama, it was slashed further, weakening not only the military itself but also the intelligence-gathering apparatus directed at North Korea and China.
In particular, the intelligence network that monitored North Korea’s internal operations was practically dismantled, making it difficult to locate Kim Jong-un or obtain details about nuclear sites.
A friend of mine who worked in U.S. military intelligence lamented that budget cuts under Obama eliminated many of their missions.
Regular defense budgets were also drastically reduced.
Bombing North Korean military facilities would require enormous amounts of ammunition and fuel—but there simply wasn’t enough funding.
The situation was not viable for a full-scale airstrike.
That’s why the Trump administration dramatically increased the defense budget last summer—from 62 trillion yen to 69 trillion yen, a jump of 7 trillion yen (Japan’s entire defense budget is just 5.2 trillion yen annually).
Through this massive boost, the Trump administration has been striving to rebuild the U.S. military.
They increased personnel, stockpiled weapons and ammunition, and by last fall finally began flying bombers near North Korea.
I’ve even heard that by Christmas, a basic strike posture had been established.
To be continued.
