The following is from Hiroshi Yuasa's regular column in today's Sankei Shimbun.
He is one of the few genuine journalists.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but also for people all over the world.
China's Fall into the "Peak Power Trap"
The "peak power trap" is when a significant power has reached its peak with dramatic growth, turns around, and becomes aggressive toward other countries when it suffers a slowdown.
When a country falls into this kind of "trap," totalitarian rulers try to regain economic momentum by mercilessly suppressing dissent at home and exerting exclusive influence externally.
It is clearly not a "power shift" in which another emerging power replaces a hegemonic power.
Instead, the analysis is that the emerging powers themselves, having peaked, will be triggered by their own impending decline.
In both cases, China is in mind.
Fear of Rapid Rise and Decline
In the same trap, Harvard professor Graham Allison cleverly described the U.S.-China relationship as the "Thucydides Trap," a spiral of fear and hostility between the two superpowers.
The ancient historian Thucydides wrote that the rise of Athens in the 5th century B.C. and the fear of the intercepting Spartans led to the inevitable Peloponnesian War.
Well, the assumption that the United States, the current hegemonic power, will inevitably go to war with China, the rising emerging power, is gradually becoming more and more realistic.
It is the first hypothesis.
However, Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, and Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University, offer a different scenario for the conflict in the U.S.-China relationship in Foreign Policy.
The meteoric rise of an emerging power inflates its ambitions to become a hegemonic power, which raises public expectations and strains strategic rivals.
The rivals then expand their circle of alliances, and under this pressure, the emerging powers will eventually see their economies stagnate, and their growth slows down.
The problem is beyond that.
In the sense of impending crisis, the emerging powers take bold action to break the status quo before it is too late.
It is the second hypothesis that China is now facing a peak power trap.
Professor Brandt and his colleagues compare the similarities between Imperial Russia, the German Empire, and the Japanese Empire, which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
They have in common the fear of rapid rise and decline and the tragedy that occurs when one concludes that the road to glory is blocked.
The "Chinese Dream" Impetus Stalls
Indeed, China is expected to surpass the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) around 2030, and President Xi Jinping has considerably blown the "dream of the Chinese people."
At the Chinese Communist Party Congress in October 2017, he declared that by the middle of this century, "the Chinese nation will stand tall among the world's peoples" and become the world's dominant power.
However, the impetus for China's rise has already stalled.
The economic growth rate announced by the Chinese government has fallen from 14% in 2007 to 6% in 2019, and the actual growth rate is even said to be close to 2%.
The expansion of the new coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan will add to this.
Moreover, the total amount of debt jumped eightfold between 2008 and 2019, according to the report.
The demographic crisis is creeping up on the country, with the productive workforce falling, and the government will lose 200 million workers and gain 200 million elderly by 2050.
Peak power China, suffering from the economic slowdown, has suppressed Uyghurs domestically, destroyed Hong Kong's democratic forces and clamped down domestically, not allowing any criticism of the regime.
Furthermore, when it rejected the "wealth first" theory of Deng Xiaoping's line and turned to the left by slamming the rich, it raised the dubious "commonwealth."
Externally, he is in a full-blown exclusionary mood, saying, "We must fight tooth and nail against foreign enemies, and those who advocate harmony are traitors."
In his speech on July 1, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, Mr. Xi hinted at the use of force, saying, "We will completely crush any attempt to gain independence for Taiwan.
In fact, Chinese Air Force fighter jets, bombers, and anti-discretion patrol aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) from October 1 to 4, the National Day, with the total number of aircraft reaching a record 149.
These threatening actions have probed the weaknesses in Taiwan's air defense system.
They have put pressure on the lines of communication with Taiwan's naval land forces (Marines) stationed in the Dongsha (English name: Pratas) Islands in the South China Sea.
Thus, China's leadership is heading down the path of the "peak power trap."
"Let's break through the status quo before it's too late," it becomes more and more aggressive.
It is a club in the left hand, a handshake in the right.
In response to such a China, the U.S. administration of President Biden, after withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, immediately changed its strategy and shifted its focus to "rebalancing toward China."
At the same time as the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. administration inaugurated the AUKUS, a new security framework comprising the U.S., Britain, and Australia. It held the first summit meeting of the Quad, a strategic dialogue among Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India.
The U.S. is poised to build an encirclement line for China with these two hard and soft deterrence cards.
In fact, at the same time that Chinese warplanes were flamboyantly threatening southwest Taiwan, two U.S. Navy carrier strike groups were conducting joint drills in the waters southwest of Okinawa, along with British aircraft carriers and Japanese helicopter-carrying destroyers, as well as vessels from the Netherlands, Canada, and New Zealand.
Since the end of the Cold War, it was the first time that three aircraft carriers and one helicopter-carrying destroyer were training together in the same area.
A week later, on October 9, Xi responded to these forces at a ceremony marking the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution.
While condemning Taiwan independence as "an obstacle to reunification and a serious risk to national revival," he called for the "realization of national reunification through peaceful means.
Earlier, on September 21, U.S. President Biden did not mention the name "China" in his general debate speech at the U.N. General Assembly.
He barely suggested that "it must condemn oppression targeting racial, ethnic, and religious minorities," and it seemed as if he had turned to a softening policy.
In reality, he was holding up the cudgel of multilateral joint training with his left hand while calling for a handshake with his right hand in the form of US-China talks.
As long as China is in the "peak power trap," it cannot let go of the cudgel.
History has taught us that accidents and miscalculations have led to many wars.
