The following is from a paper by Edward Nicolae Luttwak, who adorns the beginning of a particular feature titled 'Month Jae-in Total Collapse' in this month's issue of Hanada.
Korea, learn the truth of history
Four choices on the Korean Peninsula
Before discussing the history of Japan and Korea, I would like to begin with the reality that North Korea has finally succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads and completed nuclear missiles.
With this, the crisis in Japan has entered a stage where it cannot be reversed.
Let's see how complicated and serious the nuclear weapons issue on the Korean Peninsula is from a Japanese perspective.
The reality that North Korea has a nuclear weapon would be extremely unpleasant for Japan.
On the other hand, we must admit that North Korea's nuclear weapons guarantee independence and survival from China.
Considering this, the current severe reality points to the question 'What do Japanese want to see in the future of the Korean Peninsula?'
There are four options for the future of the Korean peninsula, which can be drawn in the matrix shown in the figure (37 pages).
The left and right axes are 'nuclear possession' and 'non-nuclear possession' (denuclearization), and the upper and lower axes are 'unified Korea' and 'divided Korea'.
At present, the Korean peninsula is a divided state, and only the north is 'nuclear possessed'(upper left).
If we want to realize 'divided Korea' and 'denuclearization', North Korea will be fully incorporated into China and become a colony (top right).
However, as long as North Korea's nuclear weapons guarantee its independence and survival from China, it is very unlikely that North Korea will let it go.
It is practically difficult to return to the past state of denuclearization in a divided state.
If it is 'unified' with nuclear weapons, Japan will face and confront a nuclear-armed peninsular state (bottom left).
This is a hostile state that is even more dangerous than North Korea and is the worst for Japan.
And there is an option of 'denuclearized' 'unified Korea' (lower right).
It is the direction that the US and China want, but in that case, unless the US troops are stationed, unified Korea is more likely to be taken into China.
I don't know what will happen to the historical problem with Japan if Korea is annexed to China.
I just want to say that if the entire Korean peninsula is under Chinese control, it will be a disaster for Japan. Japan falls into a state where its gun is pointed at its temple.
Unification Korea is difficult to survive as a nation unless it possesses nuclear weapons.
If the demilitarized zone (DMZ) collapses, there will be no reason for the unified Korean side to plead to keep the US troops in the United States.
Therefore, the combination of 'Unified Korea' and 'Non-nuclear possession' is basically likely to be under the influence of China.
All three options, other than the current status (upper left) are undesirable for Japan.
The worst of all four, the most 'at least better', is to maintain the current situation on the Korean Peninsula.
I once suggested that Japan should have the ability to attack North Korea preemptively.
However, as the North completed nuclear missiles, Japan's only practical option was to maintain a divided Korea.
So far, Japanese diplomacy has to be flexible and passive.
This is my analysis.
Japan-Korea collision is a problem in Korea
The basics of Korean behavior are to switch subordinates.
They were subordinate to Japan and then subordinate to America.
And now they are trying to subordinate to China.
As Japanese people have already seen the Korean way up close, Japan-Korea relations are not a diplomatic issue and cannot be solved by bilateral negotiations.
This is a Korean problem.
I think this is easy to understand when compared to the historical problems that Germany faced in Europe.
By the end of World War II, Germany had killed more than 20 million Russians.
Even after ten years from the end of 1945, Russia's anti-German sentiment was still intense.
More than 70 years later, all anti-German sentiments have disappeared in Russia.
Koreans' rebellion against Japan still remains after 74 years.
Why is this?
To understand, it will be necessary to compare the relationship between Germany and the Netherlands.
The number of Dutch people killed during the war by Germany was minimal compared to Russia.
Of course, during the last six months of the end of the war, the Netherlands was tormented because the food was running out.
Despite the fact that the Dutch were hardly killed, it took much longer than the Russians to resolve the hatred of the Germans.
The biggest reason is that the Russians fought against Germany, but the Dutch did not.
Germans killed Russians, and Russians killed many Germans.
And after the war, each other became 'Let's stop fighting.'
The French were slow but still resisted Germany.
The Belgian way of resistance is clever and disrupts the order created by Germany.
Denmark resisted at the national level and was very effective.
In Norway, there was a resistance warrior who attacked the Germans who came to the occupation.
However, the Dutch were cowards and did not resist.
Dutch society was subject to Germany and extensive cooperation with Germany.
For example, Germany relies on the Dutch police to arrest Jews in the Netherlands.
Young Dutch people had anti-German sentiments after the war because their fathers were cowardly.
My childhood experience confirms this.
My parents took me on a trip to the Dutch coast in the 1960s after the war.
There was a sign saying 'No Germans' at the entrance of the guest house.
At the same time, I was taken to the coastal area of Dalmatia in Yugoslavia.
At that time, our family lived in Italy, so we could go out by car.
This area was a fierce battle between the Kingdom of Yugoslavia and Germany during the Second World War, and many people were killed, but the Yugos welcomed travelers from Germany.
The reason is that the Germans killed the Yugos, and the Yugos killed many Germans.
They were not cowards and stood up and fought.
Everyone was proud without being ashamed of their father.
That is why it became friendly to the Germans after the war.
This article continues.
