Until a few years ago, I used to come to Tokyo regularly.
For some reason, the 26th was the most popular day.
It was the day that Hanada and Will, the must-read monthly magazines for Japanese citizens and people worldwide, went on sale.
Thanks to them, the two-and-a-half-hour Shinkansen train ride was not a chore but a pleasure.
I could read both on the way there and on the way back.
The following is the story of a man born and raised in China who studied at Peking University and Kobe University and then opened his eyes to Japan in Arashiyama, Kyoto.
Mr. Sekihei is one of the world's leading Chinese connoisseurs, having naturalized in Japan with a Japanese wife.
This paper is another testament to that fact.
China will not become a "second Japan.
Recently, as the sinking of the Chinese economy has become increasingly confident, the argument that "China will never become a 'second Japan'" has circulated among Chinese people.
In short, no matter how much the Chinese economy declines, it will not become the disaster that Japan was after its bubble economy burst.
For example, in an interview with the Japanese business magazine Zaikai this March, Ambassador Wu Jianghao poked fun at Japan by saying, "China will not become a 'second Japan.
As the ambassador of the country that invented the four-letter idiom "Yaro-jidai" (throwing one's weight around without knowing one's limitations), it is understandable that he would make a fool of himself.
The problem is that Japanese "experts" and the media are parroting this tone.
We must firmly refute this argument so the Japanese public will not be misled.
However, the conclusion of this column is the same as the statement above by the Japanese ambassador to Japan: "China will not become a 'second Japan."
Of course, China is not qualified to become a "second Japan" because it could never become one even if it wanted to.
Japan has been suffering from a long-term economic slump since the bursting of its bubble economy in the early 1990s. The fundamental difference between Japan and China is that Japan boasted the world's highest technological standards and built up its key industries before experiencing the bursting of its bubble economy.
For example, in 1980, Japan's automobile production surpassed that of the U.S. to become the world's largest, and its semiconductor industry accounted for 70% of the world market share.
Such a solid industrial foundation helped Japan's economy survive the long period of stagnation that followed the collapse of the bubble economy.
However, the real estate bubble emerged without any critical industries in China.
Until recently, the real estate development industry was a pillar industry accounting for as much as 30% of the economy.
In China, the real estate bubble is now bursting, but what will be left after the collapse of the pillar industries?
It is often reported in Japan that "China is now focusing on EVs to increase its international share of exports," but this is in no way the result of its advanced technological capabilities. It is a false business based on the government's exorbitant subsidies.
As expected, the U.S. and the EU are moving to restrict imports of EVs from China because of the subsidy payments.
If the U.S. and EU restrictions are enforced, China's EV car industry will suffer a devastating blow and sink immediately.
Let us take another look at the most critical measure of a country's economic level and standard of living: its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
In Japan, per capita GDP exceeded $31,000 in 1992, just after the bursting of the bubble economy, indicating that Japan was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.
In contrast, China's GDP per capita in 2023 was $12,541, less than 40% of Japan's 30 years ago.
Moreover, in the case of China, there is a very severe wealth disparity, and the majority of the population is forced to live in much greater poverty than the "GDP per capita" level.
Former Premier Li Keqiang (deceased) stunned the world at a press conference in May 2020 when he presented the specific figure that "600 million people in China have a monthly income of 1,000 yuan (¥15,000)." Still, the current situation is probably even more dire because the economic crisis has deteriorated since then.
Consider this.
Can a country where 600 million people out of a population of 1.4 billion live on a monthly income of about 15,000 Japanese yen become the "second Japan"?
Such a question is a ridiculous one, the answer to which is obvious from the outset.
I will say it clearly and unequivocally.
China will not become a "second Japan" after its real estate bubble bursts.
In the future, China will not stop with the bursting of the real estate bubble; the entire economy will collapse, unemployment will further expand, and society will plunge into a period of abject stagnation.
As a result, there is a great possibility of a significant social upheaval.
Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Chinese, including middle-class Chinese, attempting to smuggle themselves into the United States via South American countries where they can enter without visas.
Some walk thousands of kilometers from South American countries to reach the United States.
The driving force behind this horrendous behavior must be the sense of despair these Chinese feel about the bleak future facing their country.
What would make such a country a "second Japan"?
March 27, 2024, in Tokyo
